The final mock drafts are in, and the news is… Well, in a world in which Madison Bumgarner can throw a complete game no-hitter that you are immediately told is one but not the other, what is truly real any more?
As the draft pertains to the San Francisco 49ers, though, we will learn one of two things. Either Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch are a ridiculously open book and all the speculation about Alabama quarterback Mac Jones turns out to be true, or Shanahan and Lynch are glorious deceivers and it turns out to be Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields.
Actually, we all know what they'd rather be — mysterious and brilliant. Then again, that's how they ended up with Solomon Thomas.
Trying to figure out the third pick of Thursday's NFL Draft has largely been an exercise in uninformed ego, in which people of all stripes and varieties take guesses on how well they know Shanahan's brain — which as is usually the case in these matters, is not well at all. That is, unless he really is that transparent about his thinking, in which case he fails at the secrecy fixation all NFL executives pretend to have.
And there's the sole fascination of this pick. This year's draft breaks after two, in that we know with some certitude that Trevor Lawrence is going first to Jacksonville and Zach Wilson is going second to the New York Jets. The 49ers, who need a future quarterback to make up for the void that people are now convinced is Jimmy Garoppolo, have been the pick that draftniks have obsessed about since the moment Shanahan traded with Miami to arrive there. And since that moment, the favorite for the pick has moved from Fields to Jones based almost entirely on volume.
Toward that end, the rooting interest pick for those of us who view the draft as one of those moments where gasbags release the contents of their lungs no matter how little others want to hear them is Florida tight end Kyle Pitts, even though the 49ers have a tight end and specifically because there is general agreement that Pitts has the greatest chance of success (remember, Lawrence and Wilson are going to the Jaguars and Jets, thus chilling their futures solely by the weight of history). Pitts is considered to be the choice most like Washington defensive lineman Chase Young, who went second because Cincinnati needed quarterback Joe Burrow and had by far the most impactful year of any newcomer.
But the 49ers won't take Pitts, because the 49ers don't need a tight end unless they think George Kittle has hit E, plus Shanahan's persona requires that he act as though he isn't paying any attention to anyone about his selection. That is not the same as misdirection, though; it's more like "I know what I want and I don't need to bother with any of your opinions." And I guess that's a tactic, too. Not caring who looks foolish is another way to operate, sure.
But he could do the industry a great favor by going off the board if only to tell the entire draft speculation industry, "You know nothing. You've never known anything, which is why you speak so loudly." The joy this would give the nation would be far greater and more meaningful than him taking Mac Jones and explaining to us for the 355th time how smart he is. I mean, is quarterbacking an ACT test now? Well, of course it is, because otherwise draft speculators wouldn't be able to tell you about their ability to detect intelligence as well as physical skill.
Anyway, the 49ers have an important draft pick who won't reveal his true value for at least three years, which is different than the instant gratification game the rest of the football-speaking world engages in daily and at enormous volume. Whatever the choice, we will at least learn if Kyle Shanahan plays poker well enough to do this job, or whether he reveals too much to too many people by hiding in plain sight.