Deebo Samuel's time with the San Francisco 49ers could be drawing to a close. Sunday morning, ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that Samuel requested a trade in the team's exit meeting, and that the 49ers are now letting him and his agent find a trade partner.
Per Schefter, Samuel said the following:
“It was a hard conversation to have with Kyle (Shanahan) because of the relationship that we have. But I have to do what’s best. I’m more than thankful for the Niners giving me the opportunity of a lifetime, but now I think it’s best that we find another team.”
Since his near-Offensive Player of the Year season in 2021, when he had 1,405 receiving yards, 6 touchdowns, 365 rushing yards and 8 rushing touchdowns (plus 10 receptions for 154 yards and a touchdown and 137 rushing yards and a touchdown in the playoffs), Samuel has not come close to reproducing those numbers.
He signed a three-year, $71.55 million extension after that season, and struggled with injuries in 2022, a result of not being in peak shape, something acknowledged by him and Kyle Shanahan. Shanahan has openly recalled being warned by South Carolina head coach Will Muschamp before the 2019 NFL Draft that Samuel's offseason conditioning is the one thing to worry about, and that he tended to take a while to work himself into shape.
“You’re going to need to stay on him about his weight in the offseason," Muschamp recalled telling Shanahan.
Samuel's 2023 campaign was far better, with 892 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns, and 225 rushing yards and five touchdowns, but the addition of Christian McCaffrey in 2022 began to make Samuel a luxury rather than a necessity.
With McCaffrey, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk, the 49ers had an elite receiving trident. Samuel, meanwhile, was an after-the-catch receiver, and with Jimmy Garoppolo's departure, and defenses shifting to take away the middle of the field and playing more press-man coverage, Samuel increasingly struggled.
That playbook by the Chiefs, with them sending (mostly) Trent McDuffie on Samuel, was a major component of the team's last Super Bowl loss. He was targeted 11 times for three catches for 33 yards.
Samuel was poor this season, and complained about getting the ball after a win over the Chicago Bears. Samuel had 81 targets this season compared to 89 the year before, and 42 rushing attempts compared to 37 the year prior. That's three fewer touches in the same number of games, with 222 fewer receiving yards, four fewer receiving touchdowns, and 89 fewer rushing yards and four fewer rushing touchdowns (again, on five more touches).
He also had his on-field, "lock in" statement to kicker Jake Moody — something that did not bother Shanahan or most of the team — against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but refused to speak to media after the team's loss in Green Bay.
The 49ers considered trading Samuel last offseason, especially leading up to the draft. The situations was a reflection that his best days were likely behind him, but there was still belief he could be productive for the 49ers and was more valuable on the roster than whatever he could fetch in a trade.
At this point in his career, Samuel is not as dynamic laterally as he once was, and he's a very limited receiver — with a route tree that consists mainly of digs and intermediate crossing routes. He is a major asset against zone-heavy defenses, and a liability against man-heavy defenses.
He is still a dynamic threat running vertically, but broke tackles far less often than in past seasons. He might make sense for a team with a developing quarterback and an offensive coordinator who prefers to dial up short targets around post-catch playmakers.
In terms of logistics, Samuel's contract complicates matters. If nothing changes in his contract, the 49ers would have to eat a whopping $31 million in dead cap to trade him before June 1 (before free agency and the draft, when draft picks are at a premium), costing them an additional $15.7 million this year. But if they traded him after June 1, Samuel would have a dead cap of $10.75 million and save the 49ers north of $5 million in cap space.
Crucially, Samuel has a $15.4 million option bonus due March 22. The 49ers could designate him as a post-June 1 cut to avoid paying that figure, and save the roughly $5 million. This maneuver could be a way for Samuel to see what his market is before actually hitting free agency.
The problem the 49ers face is that Samuel, and his $1.17 million base salary, are probably more alluring to prospective teams before June 1. But as they try to extend Brock Purdy and George Kittle and survey the free agent landscape, they might face the reality that Samuel is not worth enough before June 1 to warrant the financial nightmare of dealing him for better draft compensation.
That's the situation, and as Schefter and Ian Rapoport of NFL Network both point out, the 49ers will explore trading him, but that doesn't guarantee that they will deal him.