High on the list of things Kyle Shanahan is a firm believer in is ending the first half with a score. Shanahan said this season that it's the second-best indicator of winning, behind turnovers.
When the 49ers defer the kickoff, it gives them an opportunity, as Shanahan has said, to "lap" the other team by scoring at the end of the half, then again to start the second half.
The logic checks out, but it often leads to slow drives down the field at the end of halves, in which the desire to protect the ball can appear preferred over the desire to score a touchdown.
That happened Saturday, when San Francisco started with three timeouts and 4:09 remaining from their own 25-yard line. At the two-minute warning, they had all three timeouts remaining and the ball on a 2nd-and-8 at their own 40-yard line.
After a nine-yard first-down conversion got them to their own 49, they ran for five yards with Christian McCaffrey, out of bounds, to leave 1:19 left on the clock. They ran again with McCaffrey, this time for three yards, and let the clock dwindle down to 34 seconds before using their first timeout ahead of a 3rd-and-2.
They converted the first down to Jauan Jennings for five yards and burned their second timeout. McCaffrey caught an 8-yard pass, which, followed by a spike from Purdy, left another 3rd-and-2 with 15 seconds and one timeout. The next play was an incompletion, and the 49ers set up for a 48-yard Jake Moody field goal which was blocked.
Does Shanahan regret the approach?
As he articulated Thursday, not in the slightest. Here's most of his lengthy answer:
"We handled it the way we wanted to," Shanahan said. "When you're thinking about that, it's not time. It's downs. The plays would have been the same. On the second down before that, we tried to get an explosive. Then you check it down, and then it goes to 3rd-and-2.
"And then now if we would have not saved any time, it would have been 3rd-and-2 in the same situation with about, I can't remember exactly, but I want to guess 40 seconds, and now everything's down to that 3rd-and-2. Now if you don't get 3rd-and-2, now the other team has the ball back with 40 seconds and three timeouts, and now it's a totally different game.
"At that time, we're up 7-6. Worst-case scenario, I feel we're going into halftime up 7-6. I'd like it to be second-worst-case scenario, 10-6, knowing we'll make the field goal. We're starting with the ball in the third quarter so we could have a chance to lap them.
"I still believe if we get the right look, which we almost did, the MIKE was just a little bit too deep. Now we're inside the 10 and he have two shots at the end zone where we have a chance to go up 14-6, get the ball first in the third quarter and now you're up 21-6 and the game has completely been changed for that reason."
Except, the 49ers didn't lap the Packers. They took a long field goal attempt, had it blocked, and didn't score on their opening drive of the second half.
Shanahan's answer explicitly states that his preference, in order, is to score a touchdown without much time left. After that, he'd prefer a half-ending field goal. His third-favorite option, but the one which dominates the entire approach, is to end the half without a score, but to prevent the other offense from having a chance to score. That fear of the opposing team scoring is his top priority.
His response to critics who say that's an objectively conservative approach is that the 49ers didn't get the right defensive look for their shot play, and if they had, San Francisco would've been deep in the red zone with two cracks at a touchdown. Regardless, they ended the half with the ball, and he believes numbers prove his approach is the right one.
"Now they didn't give us the big shot," Shanahan said. "So now we came to a 3rd-and-2. Well at least that whole half wasn't on the line on that 3rd-and-2. We knew exactly what we had. We still went for it, but we didn't get it. Now we can kick our field goal and they're never gonna touch the ball again.
"So those are the stats. Took me a while to believe it, just like all you guys, obviously. But there's too much history with it. There's too much time. And I believe that really helps us have a good record."
Shanahan continues to indicate that he believes the value of protecting the ball from the other team to end the first half— especially when the 49ers receive the second-half kick — outweighs the potential waste of a chance to score a touchdown by chewing clock.