Monday is a monumentally interesting opener.
It’s an immediate bellwether for Aaron Rodgers, who will determine if the Jets threaten a playoff spot and whether Robert Saleh keeps his job. It’s a test for the 49ers, too.
How healthy and ready are they after a lackluster, absence-riddled training camp? San Francisco probably needs to start the season at least 4-2 given what’s lurking in the back half. An opening win goes a long way to accomplishing that.
These teams are built similarly, and there is an abundance of shared knowledge. The Jets have a monumental disadvantage in the play-calling department, but Saleh runs a tight ship on defense. It’s a test for Nick Sorenson, Fred Warner and co. and finding out how much of this Rodgers will be the old Rodgers.
Jets offense vs. 49ers defense: What is Rodgers, and can SF slow down Breece Hall?
For the Jets, it’s largely about Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson. Mike Williams can be excellent, but he’s coming off a torn ACL. Tight end Tyler Conklin is probably better than advertised.
Rookie receiver Malachi Corley is an interesting addition. He was likened to Deebo Samuel, but isn’t nearly as talented, and is undersized. He is very shifty and mostly drew comparisons because he is an underneath threat with a limited route tree and great run-after-catch ability. He’s a wild card.
But it’s about what New York can do for Hall to set up everything else, and take some of the burden off a 40-year-old quarterback coming off a torn Achilles.
That starts with their offensive line.
They replaced Mekhi Becton with Tyron Smith, a likely Hall of Famer who looks like he’s declined at age 33 a bit quicker than Trent Williams at age 36. Even with that said, Smith is a massive upgrade for the Jets and is coming off a resurgent season after a dreadful 2022 campaign by his standards.
They replaced Laken Tomlinson with the underwhelming former Raiders draft pick John Simpson at left guard, and have a Shanahan-style center in Joe Tippman. He’s “Shanahan-style” in that he’s a poor pass blocker and an above average run blocker.
Alijah Vera-Tucker is particularly interesting at right guard. The former 14th overall pick tore his Achilles and could be a major contributor. He’s had plenty of good tape, but it’s hard to bet anything on any player coming back from an Achilles. The matchup between him and Maliek Collins could be a defining one.
Right tackle Morgan Moses has been just a rock-steady right tackle with the Commanders, Ravens and even one prior year with the Jets. He’s a nice signing by them. They also drafted Penn State’s Ole Fashanu 11th, and may give him a red shirt year.
On the whole, it’s not too dissimilar from the 49ers, but with a major edge at right tackle. The 49ers, with Nick Bosa having a full camp, and flanked by Collins, Javon Hargrave and Leonard Floyd, should feel optimistic about their ability to get home, though Rodgers loves to get the ball out quickly. Don’t be surprised to see some Brandon Staley-esque 3-4 wrinkles or simulated pressures with Fred Warner flashing A gap pressure.
Collins told me Thursday he views the 49ers’ combined 29 years of experience on the defensive line as a positive.
“I was looking at that,” Collins said. “I'm like shit, me, Grave and Flo, we all nine years in and then Bosa's got six years in. Like damn, we're the oldest D-line? Nah. We do got of experience, a lot of playing, done played a lot of ball. So it's a good thing.”
That bodes well for being assignment sound.
Making Rodgers uncomfortable + where the 49ers are vulnerable
The last time Rodgers played a full season with a No. 1 receiver (Davante Adams) and Nathaniel Hackett was 2021. It’s the most obvious tape to watch when examining what Rodgers could be this season. Charvarius Ward confirmed that tape is being watched.
The Jets reportedly tried and failed to move on from Hackett this offseason. That’s a real glowing sign for your offensive coordinator.
In 2021, Rodgers had a league-leading 126.0 QBR when he was not pressured. When he was pressured, he dropped to a 58.1 QBR. That’s 26th out of 31 quarterbacks.
Forcing Rodgers into uncomfortable situations depends on game control. That means scoring the ball, and forcing the Jets to get away from the run game. What really shapes that is what happens on the interior. The 49ers got gutted on interior runs last season.
You go back to the end of last season and Arik Armstead, who was playing through a torn meniscus and plantar fasciitis – and who has not made a living as a run defender – was holding together the run defense with duct tape and a dream.
On inside run plays, the 49ers allowed a +0.02 EPA (expected points added), which is second-worst in the league, only ahead of the 2-15 Carolina Panthers. Run plays, by default, are typically negative EPA. That’s a harrowing figure that has to be corrected.
The Lions gutted the 49ers on “duo” gap runs and split zone. They double-teamed the 49ers’ interior linemen, and let their upfield-flying defensive ends remove themselves from the play. The Lions’ interior offensive linemen handed off assignments to climb to the second level and consistently force Ji’Ayir Brown to make touchdown-saving tackles.
Defensive coordinator Nick Sorenson said definitively in camp that he and his staff identified those issues and have a plan in place to remedy that. We shall see. If the 49ers stick to their wide-nine philosophy of driving upfield (and despite some 3-4 wrinkles, they probably believe the upside of being an aggressive front outweighs the downside), they could be susceptible to gap scheme runs and screens.
So much of that answer will rely on the shoulders of Maliek Collins. The 29-year-old had a poor start to last season in the run game, then played excellent all-around football for the second half. He faced the Jets last year to great success, but it’s a wildly different team.
Even if the 49ers can limit Hall on the inside, he’s a home run hitter. If he gets on the edge, he can be gone in a flash. Ji’Ayir Brown saw what that was like against Jahmyr Gibbs in the NFC Championship. He took bad angles twice. Gibbs has a habit of making that happen. But you’d hope that in year two, Brown will have just the half step quicker to avoid that. He saved at least two touchdowns in the NFC Championship, and may have to do the same if Hall gets loose.
Brown is also the key to the defense running Cover-3. He has to be that reliable center fielder, and showed he could be. But it’s that half step. He nearly had an interception in that NFC Championship on a ball thrown to Amon-Ra St. Brown. But Brown took a step a half second too late and too wide, and couldn’t come up with that. He made a pure recognition, downhill tackle in the preseason that bodes well for him gaining that split-second improvement that defines good from great safeties.
Then it’s a question of what Aaron Rodgers is. Him and his right-hand man… Nathaniel Hackett. Given the 49ers’ strength at corner, with Ward, Deommodore Lenoir and either Isaac Yiadom or Renardo Green, the 49ers should feel pretty good there for the first time in a long time. Wilson will be a major challenge for all of them, but not an impossible one.
One X-factor? De’Vondre Campbell. Don’t be shocked if Rodgers tries to target his former Packers teammate. The 31-year-old was an All-Pro in 2021, but injuries have slowed him down. He had a solid camp, but Rodgers may prod and see where he’s at.
That’s all without mentioning Fred Warner, who Rodgers acknowledged as the best linebacker in the game to his face. He makes life very hard on Rodgers, but he does on everyone. Expect him to look a bit more comfortable in the defense this year without Steve Wilks as his defensive coordinator.
49ers offense vs. Jets defense: Can Jets get home with drop-off in edge-rushing talent?
The Jets were rightfully made fun of last season thanks to the Zach Wilson of it all. But the fact that they won seven games with Wilson and Hackett at the helm speaks volumes of their defense.
Here’s just some stats on how the Jets’ defense ranked:
5th: 40.6 percent pressure rate
3rd: -0.23 EPA/pass
2nd: 168.3 pass yards/game
LAST: 16.6 percent blitz rate
That’s not to say they were poor against the run. They had a -0.12 EPA per play against the run, eighth-best in the league.
But the most notable question for the Jets is whether they can remain limited in their blitzes without the presence of a pure pass rusher. Quinnen Williams is still a top-five defensive tackle in the league. But the Jets jettisoned their best pass rusher, Bryce Huff, who they let sign with the Philadelphia Eagles. Huff was third in the league in pass rush win rate at 22.9 percent and eighth on true pass sets, at 29.1 percent.
They did a swap for… Haason Reddick, who has not reported due to a contract dispute. Reddick was tied for 42nd in pass rush win rate on all snaps (14.2 percent), and true pass sets at 19.5 percent (same as Maxx Crosby). The Eagles traded him because of that dispute, but the Jets believed he would play under his deal, maybe with incentives once he reported.
Robert Saleh hasn’t ruled him out, but it’s tough to imagine him being ready to rip even if he returns Friday. The Jets also parted ways will all-around defensive end John Franklin-Myers, who was above average in the run game and pass game.
Simply put, the Jets will have to bet on Jermaine Johnson, a very good edge player, and Will McDonald, who is mostly unproven, but incredibly talented. McDonald had a 16.2 percent pressure rate in his limited 101 snaps, which, if qualified, would’ve ranked 36th in the NFL behind Joey Bosa. Going against Colton McKivitz will be enticing for whoever gets the opportunity. Look for chips from George Kittle.
The Jets don’t have many points of concern besides those questions on the edge. Sauce Gardner may be the best corner in the league. D.J. Reed has had a great career since leaving the 49ers and is a very good outside corner. The Jets just extended their star nickel in Michael Carter II.
Their linebacker pairing of C.J. Moseley and Quincy Williams is, at minimum, a top-10 pairing in the league.
It’s a very good defense versus an elite offense.
Shanahan versus Saleh is an interesting chess match. Saleh knows this offense, but hasn’t experienced the lack of limitations the 49ers have with Brock Purdy. Unlike Jimmy Garoppolo, Purdy doesn’t have to throw it between the hashes every play, and he doesn’t have an existential crisis under pressure.
But how many snaps will Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams handle? The same question goes for Christian McCaffrey. Without Ricky Pearsall, who would’ve had a not-insubstantial role in this game, there may be a healthy dose of Chris Conley.
The 49ers might look to lean on Deebo Samuel, attacking the Jets with tunnel screens and personnel schadenfreude with him and McCaffrey. It’s just a matter of how clinical the 49ers are, and if health and limited practice time with the starters might bite them in Week 1.
This game might come down to two things. On offense, can the 49ers protect Purdy and separate in the pass game? Even with the Jets’ defense, limited time for Aiyuk and no Pearsall, it’s still Purdy and Shanahan with Kittle, Samuel and however much McCaffrey is involved.
On defense, can the 49ers be sound against interior runs, and track Hall down on the edge? And can they pressure Rodgers, and deal with the attack of him and Garrett Wilson?
PREDICTION: 49ers 27-Jets 20
The reality is that the 49ers are more talented. They have a far better playcaller, and their quarterback has now been in the system for three seasons and is coming off an offseason without rehab. The Jets, with a star edge rusher holding out, have far more questions to answer, and a 40-year-old quarterback who leans on mobility who is coming off a torn Achilles. It's a team that's done it versus a team that hasn't. Season openers are tricky, but I'll take the proven product.