Time to have a rational, level-headed discussion.
Brock Purdy has an MVP case that we don't have precedent for. I'm talking about numbers. Just not those numbers.
I'm talking about his four-year, franchise-saving, rookie scale contract worth $3.74 million.
Why he's not the MVP
Let's start here, because if Purdy — whose season was outstanding — had won the award outright, this would be a cherry-on-the-sundae piece.
Lamar Jackson got my MVP vote for the Pro Football Writers Association.
Jackson was my choice heading into the 49ers-Ravens matchup and his performance since has rubber-stamped that selection.
He is the Ravens.
Baltimore's defense is the best in the league, and defensive coordinator Mike McDonald would've been deserving of Assistant Coach of the Year if not for Lions OC Ben Johnson. But without Lamar helming the Ravens, it's impossible to fathom them as a Super Bowl contender, let alone leading the AFC and AFC North.
Jackson buys time where none exists. He makes throws from comical arm angles and even when the offense is out of sync, or losing key pieces like Mark Andrews and Keaton Mitchell, he levels them up. He's developed as a passer, and while he's only leading the NFL in QB rushing (821 rushing yards, Justin Fields second at 657 yards), he's near the top of the league in nearly all important categories.
In my view, MVP should be roughly 50 percent stats, 40 percent eye test, 10 percent vibe check. The stats qualify you. The eye test tells you what's real. The last part could be laughed off, or construed as narrative, but in a relatively weak year like this, it's the real decider.
Does this guy feel like the MVP? Jackson does.
Where is his team without him? The Ravens probably aren't in the playoffs without Jackson. The 49ers without Purdy aren't a real contender, but they've got enough talent to sneak into the playoffs.
Purdy's case, for many people, had a funk to it.
Fair or not, he will always face the perception that he — the last draft pick with a good, but not elite college career, and limited physical traits — couldn't possibly elevate a star-studded offense with Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. That perception is incorrect, but his situation is extraordinarily QB-friendly.
As everyone quietly acknowledged, that 49ers-Ravens game evaporated the case for Purdy and Christian McCaffrey in favor of Jackson. His value to the Ravens is greater than any other player to any other team, which made Baltimore's bizarre game of chicken with him this offseason a mind-boggling situation.
Purdy's numbers are stellar, but they don't quite reach the same overwhelming standards as recent MVPs in Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes or Jackson.
He had 4,280 passing yards (the most in a single season for a 49ers quarterback, in 16 games), 33 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.
He led in a host of impressive categories:
- TD percentage (TD-to-Attempts): 7 percent - 0.9 percent higher than No. 2, Dak Prescott
- Passer rating (out of 158.3): 113.0 - Prescott second at 105.9
- QBR (out of 100): 72.8 - Prescott second at 72.6
- Adjusted net yards/attempt: 9.01 yards per attempt - Tua Tagavailoa is second at 7.48 yards per attempt
- Success rate: 54.7 percent - Prescott second at 51.5 percent
(Per Football Reference: "A successful pass gains at least 40% of yards required on 1st down, 60% of yards required on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd or 4th down. Denominator is pass attempts + times sacked)
But not coming close to 40 touchdowns (Mahomes had 41 last year, Rodgers had 37 and 48, respectively, in his back-to-back campaigns) or 5,000 passing yards (Mahomes had 5,250 last year) hurt Purdy, especially with double-digit interceptions. One or the other would likely have elevated him.
And if he had the inverse of his 4-INT, 0-TD performance against Baltimore, he would almost assuredly been voted MVP. But as they say, if my grandmother had wheels, she would have been a bike.
Purdy's case
Even without those rubber-stamp MVP numbers, Purdy is not far from the MVP season Tom Brady had in 2017 (4,577 passing yards, 32 touchdowns, 8 interceptions).
Those numbers, and his performance in this season, deserved to have him in the conversation until that loss to Baltimore.
The kid isn't a pumpkin, much as some galaxy-brained individuals want to believe he'll turn into one every time he steps on the field.
Purdy processes the game at an extremely high level, plays with elite anticipation and timing, and has provided the caliber of play that makes the 49ers a serious Super Bowl threat.
They finally have a quarterback who attacks the deep third of the field, can avoid pressure and make off-schedule plays. That, plus delivering on the "basics" of Kyle Shanahan's scheme, has elevated this offense.
We watched Jimmy Garoppolo mid it up for a half decade. If you can't differentiate that between what Purdy has done, you're not evaluating the game with clear eyes.
But, as stated before, Purdy is in the most advantageous situation in the league, and without a comeback win (blame Jake Moody for that in Cleveland), or beating Jackson in their matchup, it's disingenuous to claim he won it, especially with Dak Prescott finishing with more touchdowns, yards and fewer interceptions.
Keep in mind, Prescott played the final game, throwing 4 TDs and 1 INT
Because the 49ers so often dominate their opponents, or at least play from ahead, he has yet to prove he has the comeback artist capability. The separator for these award races is how you perform when things aren't going according to plan, and Purdy hasn't proven that aspect of his game.
But if we were to take the MVP literally — emphasis on "most valuable" — Purdy should win it. His contract is the most valuable in the league.
We don't have much of a blueprint for using a contract as a case for winning an award.
Both Mahomes ($3.73 million cap hit in 2018) and Jackson ($2.15 million cap hit in 2019) won MVPs on their first-round rookie deals, but their seasons had the no-argument numbers to win them the award. Those contract figures helped, but they didn't need them to state their case.
That's why it should probably be separated from the MVP argument, and limited to on-field play.
Purdy doesn't control how much he makes, and while Jackson, who represents himself, quite literally dictated his own contract, the MVP has always been about performance, not performance relative to pay.
But if we wanted to get literal about most valuable player, Purdy has a very real argument. His four-year, $3.74 million contract pays him $889,253 this season (an $870,000 base salary with a $19,253 prorated bonus).
There are Cybertruck-driving dorks in our neck of the woods making substantially more than him.
Compare how much the league-leader, Prescott (38 TDs/9 INTs), the most expensive QB, Mahomes (27 TDs/14 INTs), and the presumptive MVP, Jackson (29 TDs, 7 INTs), all cost per score (passing and throwing) versus Purdy (34 TDs/11 INTs):
- Patrick Mahomes: $1,375,327 per touchdown
- Lamar Jackson: $763,793 per touchdown
- Dak Prescott: $706,122 per touchdown
- Brock Purdy: $26,155 per touchdown
Purdy's borderline MVP-caliber performance on that contract is unquestionably the greatest value in the league. From a team-building perspective, it allows the 49ers to continue to pay players year after year.
You can see the effects of rookie deals around the league.
The offseason before Mahomes' 10-year, $450 million deal kicked in, the Chiefs shipped off Tyreek Hill to a Dolphins team with Tua Tagavailoa on a rookie deal (his $23.17 million fifth-year option kicks in next year, which is scary territory for them). Kansas City, of course, won a Super Bowl without him last year, but looks in bad shape this season.
Miami pays 14 players in the $3 million to $7.57 million per year (Tagavailoa) range and acquired or retained a host of high-priced players:
- Tyreek Hill ($30 million/year that's really $25 million/year)
- Bradley Chubb ($22 million/year)
- Jalen Ramsey ($20 million/year)
- Xavien Howard ($18 million/year)
- Emmanuel Ogbah ($16.35 million/year)
- Terron Armstead ($15 million/year)
- Jerome Baker ($12.5 million/year)
- Austin Jackson ($12 million/year)
- Zach Sieler ($10.25 million)
The 49ers don't get to sign Javon Hargrave this offseason with a high-priced quarterback, let alone one performing to the level Purdy is. And if they couldn't have landed someone like Aaron Rodgers, they might've had to ride out with someone like Jacoby Brissett and Lance (who they're paying to play for Dallas), another rookie, or, god forbid, bring back Garoppolo.
Even with Purdy's miniscule figure of $1.004 million next year, the 49ers project to be $7.5 million over the cap when they fill out their 53-man roster per OverTheCap. That appears to include the league-high $36.78 million in cap space that they'll carry over into next season, but not the more than $112 million in restructure potential they have available.
Just look at the list of cap hits and contracts on the 49ers' roster. They have 12 players with cap hits of more than $7.5 million next season and with total contract values of $27 million or more:
Nick Bosa: $34 million/yr - 5 yrs, $170 million ($88 million gtd.),
Deebo Samuel: $23.85 million/yr - 3 yrs, $71.55 million ($58.1 million gtd.)
Trent Williams: $23.01 million/yr - 6 yrs, $138.06 million ($45.1 million gtd.)
Javon Hargrave: $21 million/yr - 4 yrs, $84 million ($40 million gtd.)
Fred Warner: $19.05 million/yr - 5 yrs, $95 million ($27.5 million gtd.)
Arik Armstead: $17 million/yr - 5 yrs, $85 million ($45.85 million gtd.)
Christian McCaffrey: $16.02 million/yr - 4 yrs, $64 million ($30.06 million gtd.)
George Kittle: $15 million/yr - 5 yrs, $75 million ($40 million gtd.)
Charvarius Ward: $13.5 million/yr - 3 yrs, $40.5 million ($26.62 million gtd.)
Dre Greenlaw: $8.2 million/yr - 2 yrs, $16.4 million ($10 million gtd.)
Kyle Juszczyk: $5.4 million/yr - 5 yrs, $27 million ($9.6 million gtd.)
The 49ers only get to keep all of these pieces and continue adding thanks to Purdy's deal (aided by seemingly endless pool of restructures). All of those players above are under contract for next season.
They also had plenty of spare cash this offseason to spend on a premium backup quarterback in Sam Darnold ($5.71 million this year), quality rotational guard in Jon Feliciano ($3.25 million) and enjoy Javon Kinlaw's final year of his rookie deal ($4.928 million) in the first season he's been healthy.
They're also still eating substantial dead money on Dee Ford ($8.59 million), Trey Lance ($8.36 million) and Jimmie Ward ( $6.4 million). They have $34.67 million in dead money this season per OverTheCap.
All of this is possible because, from a contract perspective, the 49ers have the most valuable player in the NFL.
Don't believe me? Ask Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch where they'd be without stumbling into Purdy.
Instead of having fever-dreamed nightmares about the monumental whiff on Lance, or injecting themselves into the cursed Rodgers sweepstakes while one or both sweat over their job security, they're Super Bowl favorites.
Even if the 49ers fail to secure a Super Bowl this season — which would a devastating waste of their best opportunity — Purdy's deal gives them a chance to run this thing back next year and the year after, even if (when) he holds out for an extension.