Let's talk about the reality of the incoming Brock Purdy contract extension. It will be massive. It will be billed as $55 or $60 million per year, or maybe more. But that won't be what it really costs the 49ers.
Purdy is an easy target for discussion because he is not a human moose like Josh Allen, nor able to do a half-run, half-jog scramble and then throw off platform into nonexistent windows like Patrick Mahomes, nor can he scramble and create a back-breaking 70-yard play like Lamar Jackson. Clearly, he is not in that tier. But he will likely be "paid more" than those players this offseason.
"Paid more" is in quotations because Purdy might get a contract that says $60 million or more per year, but that won't be the reality of it. If you look at Jordan Love's contract, it's effectively a $32.6 million-per-year deal over four years as far as the salary cap is concerned.
The way most of these young quarterback contracts work is that teams give plenty of guaranteed money, but they also have an absurd year towards the end of the contract, anywhere from a $75.8 million fifth year for Love, to a $97 million voided seventh year for Jalen Hurts, per OverTheCap.
Love had a fifth-year option that could be amended, so his first-year floor is higher, but the 49ers will probably make Brock Purdy's first year similar to that.
Through the first four years of Love's deal, his average cap hit is $32.65 million per year. For Hurts, it's $31.22 million per year over the first five. Both are cuttable by years three or four, respectively. Or you could got the Tua Tagavailoa route. He can be cut after next season and save north of $31.2 million. Or the following season and save $36.6 million... or for $57.4 million the season after.
If you get to that absurd year late in the contract, the deal will likely have been restructured and extended and the salary cap will have gone up anywhere from $30-to-$60 million. It would also mean your quarterback has been good enough not to be cut. That's how these deals works. So Purdy? If you see roughly $60 million per year, know it'll be a little more than half of that, in reality.
This is a really rough outline of what a Purdy contract could look like, somewhat modeled after Love's deal, created via OverTheCap's contract tool. It's effectively a four-year deal for $34 million per year, but the AAV would be north of $60 million. Remember, Jimmy Garoppolo earned $27.8 million per year on his five-year 49ers deal signed back in 2018, with a $37 million cap hit that year.
It has an $85 million signing bonus, with $23 million in fully guaranteed salary in the first three years and a $25 million option bonus split over years three and four and five to opt into the third year. Again, these are barebones frameworks and they're going to be a lot more complicated on the 49ers' end.
That's $107M fully guaranteed at signing (Love got $100.8million, Tua got $93 million) with $147M practically guaranteed at signing over the first three years. The 49ers would have outs in this case, where they could save $5 million by cutting him in 2028, and save $43 million by cutting him the following year.
There's also a very dumb, symbolic, $262 bonus in the second year. The purpose? It would make Purdy the highest-paid quarterback in the NFL by average annual value over Dak Prescott... by $262. The 49ers did something similar with Trent Williams, and doing it with Purdy's draft number feels like an incredibly cheesy move they might pursue.
San Francisco might come in closer to $55 million, and there might be other bonuses and different guarantee dates, but this is a simplistic outline of what a deal could look like. And let's be clear. The 49ers are going to extend Purdy.
He is not in that elite, outrageous echelon, but he is clearly a very good quarterback who has trust with Kyle Shanahan. You can spin the wheel and try and hit again, but if you miss, you don't get to spin again. The 49ers don't want to spin the wheel. They want Purdy.