It turns out, we were all talking about the wrong holdout. Brandon Aiyuk showed up (in street clothes) for the first practice of training camp Wednesday. Trent Williams did not.
Kyle Shanahan confirmed after practice that Williams was holding out for contract-related reasons. It now makes two star players the 49ers have to negotiate with simultaneously as the clock ticks closer to the season.
"It was something that I knew could be a possibility," Shanahan said. "I was hoping that he would be here, but I knew it could be a possibility and I feel pretty confident it'll all work out in the long run and he'll be here and we'll get on the same page with everything. But it's just one day of practice and I think Trent will be alright missing a few practices."
Back in June, ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reported that there were "whispers" that Williams was looking for a new deal. They may have been a bit more than whispers.
You may be asking yourself: "Wait, doesn't Williams have a huge contract?"
Yes, he does. But it's not so straightforward.
In 2021, Williams signed a six-year, $138.06 million deal that made him the highest-paid tackle in the NFL. That $23.5 million per year is still fourth in the league amongst tackles, per OverTheCap.
But the thing with Williams, is that while he is due $20.05 million in salary this season, and $74.76 million over the next three seasons, none of that money is guaranteed.
Williams has gotten all his guarantees. He can safely bet on the $20.05 million this year that will guarantee on the first day of the season, but after that, literally speaking, nothing is guaranteed.
If he has a down season, could the 49ers calculate that they’re better off cutting him and saving $14.97 million or $23.35 million after June 1 next year? It’s unlikely, but not an impossible proposition for a 37-year-old tackle who’d be entering his 15th NFL season. His $32.21 million base salary in 2026, for a scheduled $37.8 million cap hit, would appear very cuttable.
There are a few other factors worth considering here.
It has been made abundantly clear that the priority next offseason is to pay Brock Purdy. That price will be, at minimum, in the $50 million per year range assuming he plays anywhere near the level he has for the last two seasons. He didn’t have to rehab a surgically-repaired elbow this offseason and added Ricky Pearsall to an elite offensive skill group. That’s plenty of reason to believe Purdy will continue to improve.
Another point of note is that Kyle Juszczyk and Arik Armstead were asked to take pay cuts this offseason. Both felt insulted. Juszczyk acceded. Armstead did not, and was jettisoned. Are 49ers players wary of this? Fred Warner said no when asked Wednesday, but that’s hard to believe.
"No, I wouldn't say so," Warner said. "We don't focus on those things. As players we just focus on being the best version of ourselves. Every year it's different. Even though you want to believe that the team is as similar as it was the year before, or the year before that, it's always a new team every single year. You've got your core players, but it's always a new team... We're not worried about any of that other stuff."
Williams is 36. He had a rough Super Bowl (at one point getting blasted by Mike Pennel for a backfield run stop) coming off another All-Pro season. He may play at an elite level for another five years, or an injury might derail him. He’s a one-of-one, all-time athlete and one of the greatest left tackles of all time, but time comes for us all.
But for now, and I mean right now, he may still be the most important player on this team not named Brock Purdy. He was graded by Pro Football Focus as the league's best player over the last two seasons (with a 95.3 grade), and is the only elite, let alone clearly above average player on the 49ers' offensive line.
If you are Williams, and you calculate that – with no guaranteed money remaining – this is your last great chance to cash in before the 49ers put their entire focus on paying Purdy, and you currently have Nick Bosa-like leverage, holding out starts to make quite a bit more sense.
It makes sense even as he gets fined $50,000 per day in fines that can't be forgiven, and north of $1.11 million for each preseason game missed. Williams has made north of $171 million in his career. He can stomach the fines more than Aiyuk, and a holdout puts more pressure on a team than a hold in.
We'll see how far Williams is willing to take it and whether the two sides can reach an agreement before the start of the season.