The 49ers return to Minneapolis this weekend, the site of one of the most cursed losses in recent memory for San Francisco. It was the place where, without Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel, the 49ers tripped over themselves, and Brock Purdy threw a couple interceptions after suffering a concussion late in the game.
Oh, and Steve Wilks dialed up a Cover-0 blitz that actually should have resulted in an interception… but turned into a touchdown instead. Wilks is gone. The 49ers are a fan of their new defensive coordinator Nick Sorensen. The communication and vibe feels substantially better there.
And… Williams and Samuel are back. Christian McCaffrey likely won’t be in the fold, according to Adam Schefter and Ian Rapoport – and would it shock anyone if he didn’t return to face the Rams on a turf field next week? – but the run game looked awfully good with Jordan Mason last week.
Injuries
While the 49ers won’t have McCaffrey, the Vikings likely won’t have Jordan Addison. That means plenty of Jailen Nailor, maybe some Brandon Powell and… even our old friend Trent Sherfield?
Keep an eye on where Minnesota turns to without Addison. They could try and feature Aaron Jones heavily, and he looks rejuvenated in a Minnesota offense that appears more than willing to do that.
Trench warfare
Another game, another time to look right up the gut. For each team, there are glaring weaknesses at center. Jake Brendel had a terrible game. Last time in Minnesota, he had a hard time with Harrison Phillips (just signed a three-year, $19.5 million deal), including one play on the second drive that turned into a missed Jake Moody field goal.
What bodes well for the 49ers is that Dominick Puni will be at right guard instead of Spencer Burford. Burford missed a block badly in the fourth quarter that forced the 49ers to QB sneak the ball with Brock Purdy, on the play he got concussed. That’s not blaming Burford for that, but there are always unknown consequences to missed blocks in key situations.
San Francisco was able to run the ball how it wanted last week, but they failed miserably in that regard last year. McCaffrey was held to 3 yards per carry last time, and it was largely Phillips and Jonathan Bullard leading a physical front. Veteran Jerry Tillery only adds to that.
The 49ers’ defensive line plugged gaps against the Jets in a way it struggled to last year. Breece Hall went nowhere until the meaningless final drive.
Something to look for on Minnesota’s offense? Their center, Garrett Bradbury, also had a dreadful game, and he was worse than Brendel in the run game. Their right guard, Ed Ingram, was woeful in pass protection. The tape shows it, and Pro Football Focus (not the arbiter of O-line play, but decent in delineating great and terrible) gave Ingram a 9.3 grade (an insanely low figure) in pass blocking, the worst in the league amongst 64 qualified guards.
Granted, this was against the only Giants player who wanted to win, in Dexter Lawrence. He’s incredible. But Maliek Collins looked very good Monday night, and he and Javon Hargrave should have some very good looks against those two guys.
Brendel, by the way, got a 28.1 pass blocking grade and a putrid 6.5 grade in true pass sets. He doesn’t look right. I asked Chris Foerster about Brendel’s performance. He said this, which was not exactly a glowing answer:
“Jake is with the rest of them,” Foerster said. “I think we were all a step below where I think any of them would want to play. There were some good things in the game, obviously, but it just wasn't as sharp as we needed it to be. And there's a lot to work on, which is good. I said, ‘This is good.’ The good thing is, we won. And the great thing is, we’ve got 16 more weeks to see if we can get better and we do have something to, we have a reason to come to practice this week. So it was good.”
Of course, pressure will come also come down to Nick Bosa, who started to beat Jets right tackle Morgan Moses nearly every snap. Bosa lined up on both sides, but mainly against the right tackle, which would be solid veteran Brian O’Neill.
But if the 49ers can get pressure…
What to expect from Darnold
Sam Darnold looked great against the Giants. Those last three words are key.
That’s not to say Darnold won’t continue to play great. Something may have clicked for him with the 49ers and Kevin O’Connell dialed up a hell of a game plan for him. But without Addison, and with some pretty poor limited ends in Jonny Mundt and Josh Oliver, it’s going to be a very tough task for Darnold.
The Giants left gaping holes in zone coverage, and to Darnold’s credit, he diced them up. His deep ball down the left sideline to Justin Jefferson was a dart, plain and simple.
But it was the Giants. Darnold threw an interception thanks entirely to Lawrence and missed another throw with pressure. He had the eighth-highest time to throw in the league in the first week (2.91 seconds) and if the 49ers get time like that, they will get home. There’s also no question the 49ers’ corners are better than the Giants. Aaron Rodgers didn’t even throw the ball at Charvarius Ward a single time last week.
Deommodore Lenoir talked trash on Darnold on Thursday.
That’s a matchup worth watching.
Vikings defense
The thing about Brian Flores’ defense, is that they are unpredictable. It’s a multiple scheme. From a 3-4 base, they’ll flash pressure, and more than anyone else, they’ll bring it.
They get creative in on the back end, too, and have the timeless Harrison Smith, a great, surging young linebacker in Ivan Pace, and a steady veteran in Stephon Gilmore. Andrew Van Ginkel (a 3-4 outside linebacker) also wreaked havoc all game long.
All that said, the 49ers offense had little problem throwing against them last season before Purdy’s concussion. The mistakes were largely self-imposed. Still, that pressure got home to Purdy on a couple occasions. Brendel and Colton McKivitz (and Spencer Burford, if he plays) are the players to target. Keep an eye there, and if Purdy scrambles when it’s there. He scampered for 17 against pressure last year in Minnesota.
All that said, the 49ers are pretty clearly the better team here, and this time they have Williams and Samuel. Barring any weirdness, like a poorly-timed blitz calls, the 49ers should have success in Minnesota.
Prediction: 49ers beat Vikings 30-23
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