It is finally March! By the time this month comes to a conclusion, real, meaningful regular season baseball games will have been played. Baseball season is almost here!
As of now though, it’s still early enough in Spring Training where most players are still shaking offseason cobwebs from their bodies, getting touch with release points, and rediscovering their timing at the plate. It’s the loosening up period of spring training, which also happens to be the perfect time for players to try new pitches (like Robbie Ray and his new change up) and managers to try out different lineup combinations, like the one Bob Melvin has been using in a few games this spring.
The Giants' second-year manager is trying out a lineup strategy of hitting first baseman LaMonte Wade Jr in the leadoff spot, while having outfielder Jung Hoo Lee in the third spot (assume Willie Adames will be the primary #2 hitter). Melvin stressed the experimental nature of the proposal the first week of full squad workouts, but he appears to be giving the experiment some early run. It is not an experiment I particularly agree with.
Melvin’s reasoning for batting Wade Jr in the leadoff spot is sound and simple: he gets on base. And *checks random baseball statistics website* he is right, Lamont Wade Jr does indeed get on base. He is among the best in all the sport over the last three seasons at reaching base.
My reasoning for being against this experiment is not because of any negative reason against Wade Jr as a hitter. In fact, over the last three years, Wade Jr. has proven to be one of the better lead-off hitters (statistically) in the game. Among players with at least 600 plate appearances as the lead-off hitter, his on-base percentage of .351 is 10th in Major League Baseball, and his on-base plus slugging percentage of .752 is 15th. But despite these numbers, Wade’s skill set might be better served in a different spot.
So consider my modest proposal for the Giants: Have LaMonte Wade Jr hit 9th in the lineup.
How one gets on base matters, especially in the lead-off spot. The reason most teams use speedy, contact hitters in the lead off spot is because those hitters are more adept to put the ball in play and force the opposing team’s defense to make a play.
The speed not only helps in getting on base, but moving along the bases as well. A faster player is going to steal more bases, but also be able to move from first to third on base hits to right field. Stealing bases is another obvious trait you want from your speedy lead-off hitter as well.
Wade Jr. is not exactly slow, but he does not possess the speed and bat to ball skills that a lead off caliber hitter like Jung Hoo Lee possesses, and the Giants are very confident that Lee’s skillset will show this season despite missing most of last year.
Wade Jr. is one of the best at getting on base though. That is undeniable. His on-base percentage of .361 over the last three years is by far the highest on the Giants and 17th best in baseball (min. 1,000 plate appearances). No one on the Giants has been better at going from home to first base than LaMonte Wade Jr. It is absolutely something to flex about. Most of the time, he is reaching base via the walk. His 14% walk rate is 5th best in the league over the last three seasons.
So why the ninth spot?
Ever since the end of the 2021 season, when the league instituted the universal designated hitter and forever took the bats out of the hands of pitchers, teams have been treating the ninth spot in the lineup like most high school baseball teams do - by placing their worst hitter there (I say that as someone who was once routinely batted ninth on their freshman baseball team).
In 2022, the ninth spot in the batting order had the lowest on-base and on-base plus slugging percentages.
OBP: .289
OPS: .636
2023 saw that pattern repeat itself.
OBP: .296
OPS: .661
Same thing in 2024.
OBP: .312
OPS: .696
Which teams got the most production from the ninth spot those years you ask?
In 2022, the Dodgers led all of baseball in OBP and OPS, with the Braves coming second in both categories. The Phillies were third. The Dodgers and Braves each won over 100 games that year while the Phillies went to the World Series.
The Diamondbacks and Braves were first and third in OBP from the ninth spot in 2023 and had pretty good seasons, so did the Twins, who were second behind the Braves on OPS from the ninth spot.
Last year, the Nationals, Yankees and Brewers were top 3 in OBP from the ninth spot. Two of those teams had really good seasons. The Nationals are a work in progress.
There is a pattern developing here though, which is that teams that get more production from the ninth spot tend to do better during the season.
Having an on-base machine like Wade Jr in the ninth spot not only provides a jolt of offense at the bottom of the lineup, but also makes it easier for the Giants to flip the lineup and get their best hitters, the 1-2-3 guys, back to the plate again.
This is even more important when there are two outs in the inning. And this is where Wade Jr’s skill set truly becomes an asset for the Giants in the ninth spot.
Over the last three seasons, Wade Jr’s OBP of .372 with two outs is 23rd best in baseball in that time, and by far the best on the Giants in that span by a WIDE margin. Which means with two outs, no one on the Giants, and only 22 others in baseball, was better at getting in base and extending that inning than LaMonte Wade Jr.
By batting Wade Jr. ninth, the Giants give themselves their best chance to extend innings with two outs and do so with their best hitters coming to the plate.
Last year, the Giants had a collective .286 OBP (29th in baseball ahead of only Seattle) with two outs in a year when the league average was .312.
For a team that plans to have an identity built around pitching and defense that plays in a ballpark that makes runs come at a premium, the Giants should look for new, fun ways to generate some offense. By turning a forgotten spot in the batting order into a strength, the Giants could make their lineup that much more potent this season.