The Giants and the hated Los Angeles Dodgers played an instant 9-6 classic Thursday night to kick off the second half in Chavez Ravine. Before the stretch run of the season gets rolling, let’s take one last quick look at the best and worst of the first half.
THE GOOD
Webb and Rodon atop the rotation
With Logan Webb and Carlos Rodón, the Giants have as good a playoff 1-2 punch as any other playoff contender. Combined, the two have gone 17-8 with a 2.75 ERA across 222 innings of work, and striking out 232 of the 898 hitters they have faced (26%). The dominance of these two atop the rotation is reason enough to believe the Giants could be a difficult matchup for any team in a playoff series.
Farhan Finds: Luis Gonzalez and Jakob Junis
After being claimed off waivers last year by the Giants, Luis Gonzalez got off to a scorching start to the season and quickly became a fan favorite in the Giants lineup. He hit .368 in May to win Rookie of the Months honors in the National League, and has shown a penchant to come through both on offense (his first home run helped the Giants beat the Brewers back on April 25) and with the glove, like when he nailed this throw from right field to get Washington Nationals second baseman Cesar Hernandez at the plate back on April 30.
Signed as a free agent in March, Junis has become the Giants third most reliable starter this year, with a 3.06 ERA, and going at least 5 innings and allowing 2 or fewer runs in five of his seven starts. Both Gonzalez and Junis are a testament to the fact that Farhan Zaidi is still among the best at unearthing undervalued talent, and both have become fun stories for Giants fans in a season that has at times been devoid of such joy.
Joc Pederson
His performance has suffered of late (.143/.245/.214 in the month of July) but he is still hitting a respectable .252/.331/.517 overall, doing most of that damage against right-handed pitchers, of which he is hitting .259 against with 15 of his team leading 17 home runs coming against righties. And Pederson has also developed a connection with the Giants fanbase with his offbeat, at times laissez-faire attitude.
Camilo Doval
It has not always been pretty, but Camilo Doval has shown that the Giants have found their closer of the future, meaning the team will not have to take the forever doomed trek into the free agent wilderness to find their next closer. One of the key moments in the Giants 2010-14 dynastic run was in 2008 when they identified Brian Wilson as the best option at the closer role, allowing the rest of the bullpen roles to fall in line. The Giants seem on their way to repeating that process with Doval.
Limiting Home runs
Last year, the Giants were among the best at hitting baseballs out of the ballpark, with 241 dingers, setting a new franchise record. This year, they have been the best at keeping baseballs in the yard, allowing 70 home runs in 91 games. The next best team at limiting the long ball is the Houston Astros with 78.
Numbers with the bases loaded
The Giants are hitting .284 with the bases at max capacity, which is 10th in the league. Their .784 OPS with the bases juiced is 12th in the league. But play with the situations and the numbers get better. They are hitting .405 (second) with a 1.114 OPS (third) with the bases loaded and one out. And those are not cheap, small sample size numbers either, as no team has taken more at bats with one out and the bases loaded than the Giants have this year. Don’t forget, THIS HAPPENED with the bases loaded and one out.
Run scoring: 4.8 runs/ game 3rd best in MLB
The Giants have been among the best in the league all year at doing just that. Only the mighty Yankees and evil Dodgers have scored more runs per game.
Team OPS of .723 is 10th in MLB
Walks: 333 is third-most in MLB
What do good baseball players do? They get on base.
Walks allowed: 246 fifth-fewest in MLB
Remember back in the glory days of 2018 and 2019 when Bruce Bochy would spend postgame media sessions ruminating over a disastrous inning that began with the dreaded leadoff walk. Those days are long gone this year. The Giants have given up 50 leadoff walks this season, second fewest in the league behind the Tampa Bay Rays.
Days below .500: ZERO
Not a huge deal in the grand scheme of things, but also still something worth being happy about. Despite at one point losing 15 of 21 games, the Giants, thanks in part to a 14-7 start to the season, have never dipped below water this season. Not even those dastardly Dodgers can say that (they started 1-2, which still counts)
THE BAD
The last two months
After a 14-7 start to the season, the Giants are 34-36 since then, and have looked every bit the part of a middling, .500 team. The biggest dip in performance has come on the pitching side.
April: 2.87 ERA, 9.1 K/9
Since: 4.10 ERA 8.2 K/9
Tyler Rogers
Tyer Rogers’ 4.64 ERA and 1.38 WHIP are rather unsightly, but most of that damage is from his disastrous outing against the Mets. Take away that outing (7 runs, 7 hits in 1/3 of an inning) and his ERA is a more respectable 3.19 with a WHIP of 1.22. But no pitcher has been burned more by the Giants’ bad defense than Rogers, who is not a strikeout pitcher. History has shown that if given even a decent defense behind him, Rogers can excel. In 2019 and 2021, the Giants ranked 14th and 11th, respectively, in defensive runs saved (DRS), and Rogers posted ERAs of 1.02 and 2.22 in those years. In 2020 and this year, the Giants ranked in the bottom third of the league in DRS, and Rogers sports ERAs north of 4.50 in both of those seasons. Does a better defense mean a better Rogers? We will probably need more than a paragraph to hash that one out.
The Bullpen as a whole
The Giants bullpen ranks eighth overall in MLB with a 4.19 ERA, but that seems a little lucky, which is scary to say as the Giants’ bullpen has been snakebit by bad luck, too, much in the same way that Rogers has been. One of the more concerning issues with the bullpen is the lack of strikeouts. At 7.3 per 9 innings, the Giants rank 28th in baseball in the K/9 stat. On top of that, they are good at putting the ball on the ground, with their 45.7% groundball rate ranking seventh in the league. But when your defenders are too busy playing soccer with the baseball rather than baseball with the baseball, you start to see where the issues lie. If/ when Farhan does address the bullpen at the deadline, a guy with strikeout stuff has to be high on the shopping list.
Mike Yastrzemski
Prior to his walk-off grand slam, Yaz has looked lost at the plate more often than not. After being the breakthrough find in 2019, and an MVP candidate in 2020, it has been a steady downward trend for the Giants outfielder. The hitting went away last year (.225) but the power remained (25 jacks, .457 slugging). This year, the hitting is still missing (.234) but the power is starting to fade too (9 jacks, .417 slugging).
Last Year’s Standouts: Wade, Ruf, Longoria
2021
Wade: .253/.326/.482 .782 OPS 18 HR 1.2 WAR
Ruf: .271/.385/.519 .904 OPS 16 HR 2.9 WAR
Longoria: .261/.351/.482 .822 OPS 13 HR 1.8 WAR
2022
Wade: .181/.294/.347 .641 OPS 3 HR -.2 WAR
Ruf: .227/.336/.376 .712 OPS 9 HR -.7 WAR
Longoria: .245/.333/.453 8 HR .3 WAR
The end of the Late Night LaMonte era has hurt too. Last year in innings 7-9 he slashed .263/.358/.400. This year .181/.350/.188. Yikes.
Runs allowed per game: 4.27 15th, right around the league average (4.33)
Not awful but could be better
Playing below expectations based on Pythagorean record
The Giants are 48-43, but their expected win/loss total based on their Pythagorean numbers is 51-40. The glass is half-full if you see that as a sign that things will get better, or half-empty if you see that as the Giants being a team that plays woefully below their ability and potential. That beauty rests firmly in the eye of you, you beholder you.
The Ugly
The Defense
The eye test is enough to tell you the Giants defense has been below little league levels for pretty much the entire season. People within the Giants have admitted to this as well. They knew the defense would be bad going into this season based on their decision to prioritize offense over defense and athleticism, which makes it feel a little worse when you see David Villar run into Brandon Crawford, or Thairo Estrada airmail Brandon Belt by five feet because, the front office knew this would happen, and still allowed it to happen. If the Giants do fail to make the postseason, the failure to address the issues on defense this season will loom large, and Farhan and Co. will have a lot of explaining to do in regard to how the Giants defensive issues are fixed.
And because we love numbers, check out the Giants defensive stats/rankings this year compared to last year, because you need another reason to be frustrated with this team
The Brandons
After putting up MVP numbers last season, Brandon Crawford, fresh with his new extension, has come crashing back to Earth, confirming all fears that his 2021 season was just a flash-in-the-pan contract year. His decline has come at the plate (.895 OPS last year vs a .629 this year) and in the field (1.3 defensive WAR this year per Baseball Reference vs -.3 this year, worth 6 defensive runs saved last year vs -7 this year)
Brandon Belt had looked like a whole new player under the Giants’ new coaching staff, posting a career high 1.015 OPS in 2020 and following that up with a .975 OPS last year, a career best for a 162-game season. In that stretch he averaged one home run every 12.5 at-bats after hitting a dinger once every 28 at-bats in the 9 years he played for Bruce Bochy. The Belt Wars were at long last over. Then 2022 came along, and Belt has an OPS of .781 (not far off from the .801 OPS he put up during the Bochy years) and averaging a home run once every 21 at bats. The Belt Wars are back on.
Team batting average .237 is 22nd in MLB
Hitting has been down around the league this year, but the Giants need to get out of the bottom third of the league in this category.
3 walk off losses in 4 games
A week after completing a sweep of the Dodgers at home, the Giants dropped a heartbreaker in Pittsburgh when Jack Suwinski hit a walk off dinger to give the Pirates a 4-3 win over the Giants, part of a three dinger day for the kid. The next night the Giants fell 2-1 in Atlanta when Orlando Arcia laced a groundball to left to send Braves fans home happy, and then two nights later lost again in the bottom of the ninth when the Braves rallied for three runs off of Jake McGee and Tyler Rogers. That was not a fun week.
Record in one-run games: 12-19
The 12 wins are the 10th fewest in baseball. The Giants are 7 games below .500 in one-run games. Only three teams are worse: The A’s (-9) Angels (-11) and Rangers (-15). This comes a year after the Giants won 31 one-run games, second best in baseball behind the Seattle Mariners, so some regression was to be expected (the Mariners are 21-12 in one-run games so regression is not always fair). Losing close games hurts, especially when they come in walk-off fashion. The Giants have lost six games in walk-off fashion this year, and each of those losses has been by one run. Cut that number in half and the Giants are 51-40 (like their Pythagorean Record says it should be) and would be percentage points ahead of the Padres, who are 17-9 in one-run games. If the Giants can relearn how to win the close games, a playoff spot is inevitable.
Here is hoping the Giants can harness more of the good this season and make a real playoff run and play October baseball in consecutive years for just the second time since 1958.