While reports of baseball’s death have been greatly exaggerated, one obsolete skill may be on its last leg (no pun intended). The stolen base, a lost art perfected by the likes of Hall-of-Famers Ricky Henderson and Ozzie Smith, is dying before our very eyes, entering 2022 on life support after a decade of swinging for the fences at the expense of situational hitting and what was once affectionately known as “small ball.”
MLB’s current labor crisis has unearthed many of the unique challenges baseball faces amid its continued quest for relevance in a diluted entertainment landscape. Once known as America’s pastime, baseball has devolved into a stuffy game with little imagination, eschewing finesse for raw power. Baseball’s trend toward a feast or famine aesthetic predicated on the three true outcomes—a home run, walk or strikeout—has made specialists like Dave Roberts (best known for his iconic steal that started Boston’s historic comeback in the 2004 ALCS) all but extinct. According to Jason Collette of Fangraphs, baseball’s preeminent analytics site, steal attempts have dropped by almost 36 percent in the past decade.
2011: MLB attempted 4540 steals league-wide
— Jason Collette (@jasoncollette) February 21, 2022
2021: MLB attempted 2924 steals league-wide
A 35.6% decline in attempts over the past decade & has declined every full season since 2015
— Jason Collette (@jasoncollette) February 21, 2022
As a point of reference, consider that six players—Starling Marte, Whit Merrifield, Trea Turner, Cedric Mullins, Myles Straw and Tommy Edman—logged 30 or more steals last season with only Marte exceeding 40 thefts. Ten years earlier in 2011, 20 players reached that threshold with eight tallying at least 40 steals. In fact, Michael Bourn’s 61 steals that year were more than two teams—the Reds and Diamondbacks—even attempted last season.
Teams seem to have changed their philosophy, seeing steals as both a distraction to hitters and an unnecessary risk. Sports like basketball and even football have gone through similar evolutions with the NBA becoming more perimeter-oriented (we just witnessed Steph Curry drain 16 three-pointers in an All-Star Game), just as today’s pass-happy NFL bears little resemblance to its primitive “ground and pound” predecessor. But that won’t stop purists from lamenting the post-steal era of MLB, rewarding power and brawn over speed and precision on the bases.
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