The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center is predicting another good chance of a La Niña winter, which would be the third winter in a row. If that happens it would be only the third time since 1950 there have been three straight making it an unusual trend.
Typically, La Niña winters mean a colder than average winter in the Upper Midwest. WCCO Chief Meteorologist Paul Douglas says while that is statistically true, it isn’t always the case.
“We have another La Niña winter, which seems likely,” says Douglas. “Most La Niña’s, with a cool phases in the Pacific Ocean, most La Niña winters tend to be chillier. The last two winters here have been La Niña winters and they’ve been hardy. They’ve been real winters for the most part. Technically, odds do slightly favor a more cool winter.”
According to the forecast from NOAA, La Niña is favored to continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23, with a 91% chance in September-November, decreasing to a 54% chance in January-March 2023.
“However, not all La Niña’s are created equal and there are some La Niña winters that end up average or even warmer than average,” Douglas told WCCO’s Adam Carter on The Morning News. “So I think it’s a little premature to say, ‘oh my goodness, it’s going to be another terrible winter’. I’m not convinced.”
Douglas also adds you should completely ignore the Farmer’s Almanac winter forecast. For the record, they're predicting frigid temps for the north-central part of the country.
“It’s more of a horoscope than a forecast,” Douglas said. “It’s fun to look at, I have my copy but no, I’m not convinced it’s going to be a pioneer winter. No panic in the streets yet.”
There is what Douglas describes a weak correlation between La Niña and colder winters in Minnesota - it doesn't absolutely mean we're going to have a rough winter, or “polar vortex" winter, which can lead to extremely cold temperatures.
“I tend to stay away from making too much of this,” Douglas explains. “People want to know what the winter will be like but frankly, there are things that are unknowable, and this is one of them. I suspect the upcoming winter won't be anything like last winter. That is just the nature of weather and La Niña is just one of a large number of variables that will determine what kind of winter it is.”
NOAA’s forecast says there is still large uncertainty over how long La Niña will last, and when it will transition back to a more normal cycle. For now, it looks like the first half of winter will get a cooler Pacific push however.
Douglas adds that any three to six month weather outlook isn't a prediction, it's more of a horoscope.
El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cool phases of a recurring climate pattern across the tropical Pacific Ocean. These patterns shift back and forth irregularly every two to seven years, and each phase triggers predictable disruptions of temperature and/or precipitation. These anomalies can have an effect on weather across a large portion of the county and lead to cooler, warmer, wetter and drier winters in Minnesota depending on the conditions.
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