If you use the CDC's data, it does appear that the coronavirus has ravaged America like few other disasters have. And thus, almost every article you'll see published on the subject will draw similar conclusions.
However, when I was digging into the numbers for a very different reason (that being, to see if the Covid deaths are impacting the worker shortage- spoiler: they're not. The average age of death is too high), I discovered a strange outlier in the CDC numbers. Or better put, the CDC numbers ARE the outlier, which immediately casts doubt on them. Allow me to explain:
The best way to determine how significantly coronavirus has decimated a population is to compare 2020's death statistics to previous years. If the CDC's data shows 350,000 people died from Covid in 2020 America, then we should see a significant increase in deaths over 2019. And in fact, the CDC's data does show this: 572,000 more people died in 2020 than in 2019, by their numbers. So an increase from Covid, but also from other causes, probably due to many untreated illnesses as people avoided hospitals, especially in the early days. That's just shooting from the hip though.
To compare deaths worldwide, I had to use a more accurate statistic to accommodate for population differences. The best stat to use in this case is "deaths per thousand." And then, to see what percentage that death per thousand increased by nation. For instance, if Makanda normally has 12 deaths per thousand, but that increased to 14 in 2020, we could see the effect of Covid on the population by a 16% higher year-over-year death total.
The problem is, that did not happen in any of the western nations (where data is more accessible) and which resemble America's medical availabilities.
In the U.K., according to their government's Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk), the deaths per thousand did rise in 2020 from the last few years, from about 8/1000 in 2015-2019 to about 8.9/1000 in 2020. That's certainly a rise, by nearly 1/1000 extra deaths, but it's not terribly significant. It's actually better than some recent years, like 1999 and 2003, which were bad flu years in the U.K. when the death rate rose above 9/1000. Overall, 2020 in the U.K. was an 8% increase in the number of deaths over the average since 1999.
And Australia is even more surprising. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the deaths per thousand actually decreased in 2020 to 4.9/1000, which is lower than 2019 at 5.3/1000. It's actually the lowest death rate per thousand that Australia has ever had, a -13 decrease in the number of deaths over the average since 1999.
Australia = 13% decrease in # of deaths in 2020
U.K. = 8% increase
U.S.A. = 25% increase?
What gives? Why would these nations' death rates per thousand fall, or stay relatively average, while America's rose to its highest since 1943? Aren't we supposed to be the most advanced?
Let's get a few theories out of the way before we get to the Ah-Ha. Keep in mind, these numbers are all pre-vaccine, so that doesn't factor in.
The immediate theory will be that Australia and the U.K.'s numbers are what they are because of mitigation efforts, and a more compliant population than the U.S. But consider the infamously anti-lockdown Sweden. From 1999-2019, their average was 9.77/1000. In 2020, that decreased to 9.1. So:
Sweden = 6% decrease in # of deaths in 2020
Here's the Ah-Ha. It's a big, messy fact that's not being reported, or noticed. Any statistics company that DOESN'T rely on CDC data puts the U.S. at roughly the same increase as other western nations. Macrotrends has America's 2020 deaths at 8.8/1000, and Knoema has it at 8.9/1000. The CDC? 10.4/1000. So according to all stats OTHER than the CDC's:
U.S.A. = 6% increase
That's a big difference from a 25% increase. Ultimately, comparing the CDC's numbers to the numbers of other western nations, and oddly, numbers from other stat companies within the U.S., the outlier is the CDC.
What comes into focus when comparing these worldwide numbers, and U.S.'s numbers other than the CDC's, is that 2020 looks like a fairly normal year, or at worst in some nations, a bad flu year. And this, regardless of how the nation handled lockdowns, masks, or quarantines.
So are the CDC's numbers trustworthy? You be the judge.
