A great barometer for the state of the union is the direction of voter registration. Not every state reports on this, but the ones that do offer great insights into the mood of the electorate.
In states that are safely red, you're seeing the obvious. Big Republican registration gains are happening in Wyoming, for instance. Since 2020, Republicans have net gained roughly 21,000 registered voters in an already low population, highly conservative state. This is the case in all GOP states since 2020.
Idaho: GOP +68,414
Oklahoma: GOP +66,754
West Virginia: GOP +64,154
South Dakota: GOP +11,199
Expected. But what about reliably blue states? You're still seeing a net gain for Republican registration.
New York: GOP +223,071
New Mexico: GOP +7,887
Oregon: GOP +6,128
All except for California, which is a net gain for Dems: DEM +168,936. California has seen such intense outmigration that the cause may be that conservative-minded voters are simply leaving the state too fast to make an impact on voter rolls.
So that leaves us with the all important battleground states.
Maine: GOP +1,125
Colorado: DEM +roughly 10,000
Nevada: GOP +36,065
Pennsylvania: GOP +64,306
First, Colorado. Like California, Colorado has seen a tremendous amount of migration, only inward. So allowing for states with high population changes (you'd expect to see Florida and Texas with similar trends for GOP), we will cross them off and focus on states with relatively stable populations.
That leaves Nevada and especially Pennsylvania as the best indicators of the swing states. Both of these have seen tremendous growth for the Republican party since 2020, but PA is a great indicator for the upper Midwest/rust belt, which currently holds the most sway in USA elections. Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio have all been moving rightward. And if PA voter registration is true across these other states, then it's swift.
As recently as 2017, Pennsylvania showed a +30,500 registered Democrat advantage. Now, it's +64,000 for Republicans. That's a nearly 100,000 registered voter swing in just 5 years.
If these trends continue, Pennsylvania alone will tilt the map red in future elections. But if it indicates the same for the rust belt states, then the old blue wall is fully gone, and the map has permanently changed.
Ryan Wiggins is the author of the extremely serious and not funny robot novel, The Life of Human, and is a writer and producer of television shows. He is the host of Wiggins America on 97.1 FM Talk in St. Louis.