The Republican party is poised to gain a high number of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives this November, but will it be historic?
Right now, they have 212 to Democrats 222. For the GOP to make waves, they will need:
-11 seats to take back the House
-36 seats to eclipse their 2014 high
-59 seats to beat the highest number in 100 years
-90 seats to achieve the highest number ever, 303, from 1920
So how high will they go?
It seems very plausible that Republicans will beat their modern-era high from 2014. From Just the News:
"Following Glenn Youngkin's win in the Virginia governor race, the National Republican Campaign Committee expanded its list of targeted House races to flip from 57 to 70."
That doesn't mean they'll actually hold all 212 and flip 70, but "50" seems to be the over/under pundits are betting on. And there are many reasons why 50 is a solid plumb line.
First, all current polling shows "historically unpopular" President Trump beating the apparently even more historically unpopular President Biden in a 2024 rematch, should that occur. But Trump won't be on the card in 2022. It's just local Republicans running against the flailing Biden agenda. Lay-up for GOP.
Second, the "Trump will be a drag" narrative does not apply to House races. (It may not even apply to Presidential and/or Senate races). In 2020, Trump did lose the popular vote despite whatever excess printing which may have happened in the swing states. And despite barely losing the Senate, Republicans actually GAINED 13 House seats in what would have otherwise been a bad year. In fact, they won almost every "toss-up" House seat.
And for comparison, look to the last time a Democrat was in the White House. Obama's first midterm in 2010 yielded a 64-seat Republican gain, going from 178 to 242. Republicans are starting from a higher incumbency this time, with 212 seats, needing only 30 seats to achieve that same number. And Biden's polling is worse than Obama's.
And last, of course, is the aforementioned Glenn Youngkin, along with all the other November 2021 races which fell much more heavily toward Republicans than almost any poll predicted.
So what's 2022 going to look like? Expect 30, and watch for 50. It could be a historic year.
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