Five Key Numbers That Could Decide Michigan State-LSU

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Photo credit © Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
Washington D.C. -- The Sweet 16 has arrived for Michigan State. The Spartans take on 3-seed LSU Friday night, with the winner likely getting a date with Duke in the Elite 8. (What a reward.) Expect a physical, up-tempo affair. Both teams like to get out and run in transition and take pride in the way they crash the glass. 

The 2-seed Spartans have the savvy, embodied by Cassius Winston. The 3-seed Tigers have the athleticism, embodied by Winston's counterpart Tremont Waters. 

Here are five numbers that could decide the outcome of the game. 

13.4...

...as in the number of offensive boards LSU grabs per game, 10th best in the country. Both teams can rebound with the best of them, but the Tigers are especially strong at this end of the floor. And the Spartans have been susceptible in this area at various points this season. They've been solid so far in the Tournament, but LSU will present a much different test.

"They do it with a vengeance," Tom Izzo said. "It’s almost violent, that’s how hard they go there. It reminds me of some of the teams we had with (Jason Richardson) and Zach (Randolph) and guys back in the early 2000’s. We’ve been a good rebounding team this year, maybe the best in the league, but I wouldn’t say tremendous. We’re going to have to win this battle." 

2.9 (x2)...

...as in the number of steals Waters creates per game and the number of turnovers Winston commits. Waters, the co-Defensive Player of the Year in the SEC, will be in Winston's grill all night long to try to disrupt his rhythm. The Spartans, who turned it over 22 times in their second-round win over Minnesota, will have to be on high-alert against a team that's extremely active defensively. 

"If they're going to keep putting the ball in a certain place," Waters said, "I'm going to keep taking it away. ... That's my job being on defense."

32...

...as in the combined number of NCAA Tournament games among Michigan State's top six players, compared to 12 among LSU's top six. Aaron Henry is the only freshman who plays significant minutes for the Spartans, though that can change quickly if they get in foul trouble. Four freshman play big minutes for the Tigers. On a stage where experience can prove crucial, Michigan State has a clear edge. 

"I said it all year, there's really no situation that we've come across that we feel like we haven't been in before," said Winston. "We've seen it all. We've made it through a lot of situations. That experience, just being comfortable in those situations, helped us along the way." 

12.6...

as in Nick Ward's minutes per game since returning from the hand injury that sidelined him for the final month of the regular season. He logged 20 against Minnesota, and the Spartans will need even more from him against an LSU team that plays inside-out with its big-bodied frontcourt. 6'11 Kavell Bigby-Williams and 6'10 Naz Reid are a handful. The 6'9 Ward is Michigan State's best answer. 

"Nick wanted to come back and be everything all at once, and usually it takes at least half the time you're off to get back. We're right into that area," said Izzo. "I think Nick made big progress this week. ... The Minnesota game he got some confidence, he's getting his wind back, this week in practice helped." 

As for Reid, the headliner of LSU's vaunted 2018 recruiting class, Izzo said, "He can shoot the three, he can take it to the hole, he can dunk on you, he can jump over you and get an offensive rebound. If I keep talking about him I'm going to get nauseous." 

20... 

...as in the number of players who have fouled out this season against the Tigers, who draw nearly 20 fouls per game. Michigan State, down to essentially a six-man rotation, will have to stay disciplined in the face of LSU's aggression. Not only do the Spartans have a thin bench, but the Tigers are dangerous if they get into the bonus early, as they shoot 75 percent from the line. 

“Knowing that they draw a lot of fouls, just be solid,” said Xavier Tillman. “When they try to play physical, be smart and get your hands out of there, but at the same time be able to contest their shots."