Conference tournament season is upon us. In a year where the NCAA Tournament bubble is a complete and utter mess, conference tourneys look to be more important than ever.
For teams straddling the line between in or out -- and there are approximately a million of them this year -- the worst thing that could happen would be to see a team decidedly on the outside of the tournament picture swoop in and steal one of the 68 coveted bids to the Big Dance.
And boy, are there a lot of teams capable of doing this.
For starters, there are several traditional one-bid leagues boasting teams who would be at-large bids, even if they were to lose in their conference tournament.
On top of your conferences that typically produce bid stealers (leagues that usually put 2-3 teams in the dance like the A-10, American and Mountain West), we’re looking at a few more tournament-quality teams from one-bid leagues than usual.
Here’s a rundown of teams that could steal bids between now and Selection Sunday, creating an even bigger headache for bracketologists everywhere:
Houston and Cincy will be in no matter what happens. UCF wrapped up an at-large bid with a win over the Bearcats Thursday.
Temple has be a fringe bubble team all season. If they were to win the AAC, they may not officially qualify as a traditional bid-stealer, but prior to champ week, they are squarely on the bubble.
Memphis, on the other hand, is a prime bid-stealing candidate; they will not make the dance without that all-important auto-bid. They lost two games to Cincinnati by a combined seven points, and gave Houston a run for their money earlier this year. Jeremiah Martin is the kind of player that can go off on any given day, and he could help carry Penny Hardaway to the dance in his first year as coach of his alma mater.
The Rams would probably be in the 10-11-seed range if they were to take a bad loss in the A-10 tourney, but they would still be in.
Both teams have been on the bubble all year, but both have probably played themselves out of at-large contention in recent weeks.
Davidson beat VCU at home, while Dayton lost a pair of heartbreakers to the Rams.
Bowling Green knocked off No. 18 Buffalo back in early February, while Central and Toledo each gave the Bulls (27-3, 15-2 MAC) a solid fight. Of the three, the Falcons have the best shot at stealing the auto-bid. They'll have another chance to see the Bulls on Friday, before potentially meeting in Cleveland next week.
Of Nevada and USU's four combined conference losses that didn't come against each other, three of them came at the hands of these two teams. Fresno State probably has a better chance than SDSU, thanks to a defense that rates favorably at KenPom.
The Pac-12 has been brutally bad. Its best team is fighting for a single-digit seed, while the next best team is fighting just for a spot at the table. Spots 3-10 are all equally bad and within a game of each other. Any one of them could reach the semifinals, and from there, anything is possible when the top two teams have been as bad as they are. Utah or Oregon would probably be the most likely candidates, but bid-theivery from any of the other teams isn't out of the question
The SoCon has been fantastic this season and any one of these teams is capable of beating Wofford. Furman probably has the best chance out of any of them; the Paladins had been garnering at-large consideration for much of February, but losing at Wofford all but took away any chances of an at-large bid. Jordan Lyons, Clay Mounce and Co. knocked off Villanova early in the season and are capable of getting hot enough to beat Furman and making the dream of #2BidSOCON a reality.
There are but a few teams capable of doing it this year, most notably out of the Big East, which has seven teams separated by just one game going into the final day of the regular season.
It's hard to imagine any true underdogs out of the Big Ten, save Indiana, marching through the tourney in Chicago and stealing a bid. The Hoosiers are on the bubble and could probably play themselves into an at-large spot.
The ACC, Big 12 and SEC probably won't have any bid-stealing going on, though West Virginia has slayed a few giants this season and could conceivably find itself playing on Friday and Saturday in Kansas City.