Ticket Bracketology: Spartans, Wolverines Heading In Opposite Directions

Tom Izzo and Rocket Watts
Photo credit © Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports
By Kyle Beery | 97.1 The Ticket

March is here. Two weeks from today, the First Four in Dayton will tip off. 

The 1-seeds seem to be set, barring multiple unexpected losses in the next two weeks. You can lock Kansas onto the top line, and likely the No. 1 overall seed. Baylor is close to a lock, unless they lose at West Virginia on Saturday and in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament.

Gonzaga and San Diego State could afford to lose to BYU or Utah State, respectively, in their conference tournaments and reasonably believe they could hold onto a spot on the top line. The only teams looming in the 1-seed conversation -- Dayton, Seton Hall, Maryland and possibly Florida State -- would undeniably have to win out and have one of those two teams slip up in the next week.

Locally, the two in-state teams are trending in different directions. Michigan State ripped off two impressive wins against ranked teams last week and has the opportunity to do so again this week. The Spartans play at No. 20 Penn State Tuesday night and host No. 19 Ohio State on Sunday afternoon for Cassius Winston and Kyle Ahrens' senior day. 

If the Spartans are able to win each of those two, and win at least one game in the Big Ten Tournament next week in Indianapolis, they could be looking at 3-seed, though that could be this team's ceiling. MSU currently sits at 7-8 in Quad 1 games, which ranks tied fifth-most in the country. If they were to add at least two more, that category will definitely stand out to the committee, though eight losses in that quadrant -- as well as the ugly loss to Virginia Tech -- could also be what prevents them from receiving a 2-seed, if they were to win the Big Ten Tournament.

MSU has seemed to hit its stride over the last few weeks, but there have been some brutal stretches of play throughout the season that are cause for concern. There have been games where they've dug themselves massive holes (see games at Purdue, Indiana and Wisconsin), raising many questions about the Spartans at times.

Michigan, meanwhile, took a pair of losses last week, squandering two opportunities to add to a résumé that features impressive wins against Gonzaga, Creighton and Michigan State. The Wolverines also own seven Quad 1 wins, but the losses have piled up a little too much to be sitting on the same line as the Spartans. Currently, at least. Given the strength of the Big Ten, Michigan still has, at a minimum, one more Q1 win, and if they can make a run in the Big Ten Tournament, possibly several more.

But going on said run may not seem likely after the defensive performances turned in last week, especially against Ohio State. Michigan has been on a roller coaster ride all season, and if Juwan Howard's team can end the season riding high, they could possibly climb to a 5-seed, and with a conference tournament title, maybe even as high as a 4. If they finish in a valley, however, they could dip to a 7-seed or lower.
Here's a look at the projected field of 68 prior to Tuesday's games, less than two weeks out from Selection Sunday. These projections are based on current résumés and what the bracket would look like if the tournament started today.
Note: auto-bid conference champions are listed in parenthesis and the winner of the Midwest Regional would meet the winner of the East in the Final Four in Atlanta, while the South and West champions would square off.
Midwest Regional -- Indianapolis (March 26 and 28)
Omaha, NE

1. Kansas (Big 12) vs. 16. Prairie View A&M (SWAC) / North Carolina A&T (MEAC)8. Virginia vs. 9. Xavier

Tampa, FL

4. Michigan State vs. 13. Liberty (A-Sun)5. Colorado vs. 12. Yale (Ivy)

Cleveland, OH

3. Kentucky (SEC) vs. 14. Colgate (Patriot)6. BYU vs. 11. Rutgers / Stanford

Cleveland, OH

2. Dayton (A-10) vs. 15. Wright State (Horizon)7. Illinois vs. 10. Oklahoma

South Regional -- Houston (March 27 and 29)
Omaha, NE

1. Baylor vs. 16. Eastern Washington (Big Sky)8. Arizona vs. 9. St. Mary's

St. Louis, MO

4. Louisville (ACC) vs. 13. Vermont (America East)5. Penn State vs. 12. UCLA (Pac-12)

St. Louis, MO

3. Creighton vs. 14. UC Irvine (Big West)6. Wisconsin vs. 11. NC State / Utah State

Greensboro, NC

2. Maryland (Big Ten) vs. 15. Hofstra (CAA)7. West Virginia vs. 10. Providence

West Regional -- Los Angeles (March 26 and 28)
Spokane, WA

1. Gonzaga (WCC) vs. 16. Siena (MAAC) vs. St. Francis (PA) (NEC)8. Texas Tech vs. 9. Arizona State

Spokane, WA

4. Oregon vs. 13. North Texas (C-USA)5. Ohio State vs. 12. Northern Iowa (MVC)

Albany, NY

3. Villanova vs. 14. New Mexico State (WAC)6. Michigan vs. 11. East Tennessee State (SOCON)

Tampa, FL

2. Florida State vs. 15. Little Rock (Sun Belt)7. Marquette vs. 10. Indiana

East Regional -- New York City (March 27 and 29)
Sacramento, CA

1. San Diego State (MWC) vs. 16. North Dakota State (Summit)8. Houston (AAC) vs. 9. Florida

Sacramento, CA

4. Penn State vs. 13. Akron (MAC)5. Auburn vs. 12. Stephen F. Austin (Southland)

Greensboro, NC

3. Duke vs. Belmont (OVC)6. Butler vs. 11. Wichita State 

Albany, NY

2. Seton Hall (Big East) vs. 15. Winthrop (Big South)7. LSU vs. 10. USC

Bubble Talk
  • Last 4 Byes: Wichita State, Providence, Indiana, Oklahoma
  • Last 4 In (First Four in Dayton): Rutgers, Stanford, NC State, Utah State
  • First 4 Out: Richmond, Cincinnati, Texas, Mississippi State
  • Next 4 Out: Rhode Island, Purdue, South Carolina, Memphis