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Following the best weekend of the college basketball season, the bracket is beginning to take shape. Teams are punching tickets, others are dropping out.
There's still a lot to be decided in the next week, though. Conference tournaments will play a huge role in determining seeds for the NCAA Tournament, and Michigan and Michigan State both will have a lot to play for in Indianapolis this week.
The Spartans are riding high to end the season with five straight wins -- four of which came against ranked teams -- to earn a share of the Big Ten regular season title, their third straight.
It's not out of the question that Michigan State could climb up to the 2-line with a Big Ten Tournament title. The Spartans currently sit at 8-7 in Quad 1 games, which is by no means flashy. But only eight teams have more wins in that category. In terms of Quad 1 + Quad 2 games, only six teams have a better mark than MSU's 14-9.
A conference tournament title would mean adding three more Q1 + Q2 wins, and most likely three Q1 wins. Considering the metrics have loved the Spartans this year, and depending on what happens in the ACC and Big East Tournaments, that could be enough to bump the Spartans up.
Conversely, if Michigan State were to lose it's first game in Indy -- especially if it were to be against Purdue -- the Spartans would likely drop to the 4-line. But that's likely as far as they would slide. The most likely scenario for MSU is a 3-seed.
Michigan may be the more volatile team in terms of seed fluctuation. The Wolverines currently sit as the last 6-seed in my seed list. Michigan lost three of its final four regular season games and could certainly use a pick-me-up heading into the tournament.
The Wolverines play Thursday at noon against Rutgers in a game that will carry a lot of weight. The Scarlet Knights are darn near close to a lock for the NCAA Tournament, but a win over Michigan would seal the deal. A loss likely wouldn't eliminate them, but they'd be left to sweat things out all weekend.
Michigan, meanwhile, quietly needs a win in that game to stop the bleeding. The Wolverines (19-12, 10-10) are in a sketchy part of the bracket, where there are about nine teams that could conceivably end up on the 6-line with a successful conference tournament.
A win or two could push the Wolverines up a seed-line, while a loss to Rutgers would almost certainly push them down at least one line, with loads of teams potentially still alive to keep passing them.
With less than a week until the bracket is revealed, here's a snapshot of what the field of 68 currently looks like. This projection is what the bracket would look like if the tournament started today.
1. Kansas (Big 12) vs. 16. Robert Morris (NEC) / N.C. Central (MEAC)8. Arizona vs. 9. LSU
4. Louisville vs. 13. Vermont (America East)5. Butler vs. 12. Yale (Ivy)
2. Creighton (Big East) vs. 15. Wright State (Horizon)7. Illinois vs. 10. Oklahoma
1. Gonzaga (WCC) vs. 16. Siena (MAAC) / Prairie View A&M (SWAC)8. USC vs. 9. Marquette
3. Maryland vs. 14. Colgate (Patriot)6. West Virginia vs. 11. Stanford / Richmond
2. San Diego State vs. 15. UC Irvine (Big West)7. Iowa vs. 10. Xavier
4. Wisconsin (Big Ten) vs. 13. North Texas (C-USA)5. Auburn vs. 12. East Tennessee State (SOCON)
2. Florida State (ACC) vs. 15. Little Rock (Sun Belt)7. Providence vs. 10. Rutgers
1. Dayton (A-10) vs. 16. North Dakota State (Summit)8. Houston (AAC) vs. 9. Florida
4. Duke vs. 13. New Mexico State (WAC)5. BYU vs. 12. Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
2. Villanova vs. 15. Eastern Washington (Big Sky)7. Colorado vs. 10. Indiana