If this season was all about the 'Lose for Hughes' campaign for the Red Wings -- hint: it wasn't -- they were doing a fine job for much of the year.
They've fallen off track since.
With wins in eight of their past nine games, the Red Wings have risen to fifth-last in the NHL. Their odds of winning the lottery, which takes place next Tuesday, have fallen from 13.5 percent to 8.5 percent. Their odds of picking in the top three have fallen from about 38 percent to about 26 percent.
And that's just fine for general manager Ken Holland, because A) we're talking about marginal differences here and B) his team's (poorly-timed) last-season push has been driven by its young players. It's the pieces already in place that matter most to the Red Wings' rebuild.
"We’re winning games off the young people. Jeff is putting all those young people on the ice in important situations -- on the power play, on the penalty kill, four on four. I think that’s the most important thing. And whether you have the fourth lottery odds or the fifth lottery odds, we’re talking one or two percent (difference) going into the draft."
Detroit's youngsters have indeed picked up their play down the stretch. Here are some basic numbers for Dylan Larkin, Andreas Athanasiou, Anthony Mantha, Tyler Bertuzzi and Filip Hronek in the team's nine-game surge:
Larkin (22 years old): five goals, 11 points, plus-eight. Athanasiou (24): six goals, 11 points, plus-five. Mantha (24): seven goals, 12 points, plus-seven. Bertuzzi (24): five goals, 14 points, plus-11. Hronek (21): two goals, five points, plus-three.
Combined: 25 goals, 55 points, plus-34.
(That's without mentioning recent signee, Taro Hirose, 22, who has one goal and six points in his eight games with the Wings.)
"I think that as we head into the offseason, I’d like to think there are going to be lots of players in that locker room that are going to be feeling good about themselves and can’t wait to get to September and get going again," Holland said. "Jeff and I actually had that conversation recently that there was a stretch, maybe 15 games ago, when we weren’t quite sure which direction the team was going. And they’ve dug in here, they’ve played hard and we’ve won some games.
"It’s really been led by lots of those young players, on defense and up front. I think that bodes well as we head into the summer."
With two games to play, it's most likely the Red Wings will finish either fifth or fourth to last. The furthest they can fall in the lottery is three spots, so they look destined for at least a top-eight pick. On the flip side, there's a chance they could get lucky. Several recent examples come to mind, and Holland rattled off a few himself.
In 2017 alone, the Devils rose from fifth on the board to first, the Flyers rose from 13th to second, and the Stars rose from eighth to third. A year later, the Hurricanes rose from 11th to second.
But we digress.
"Let’s hope on Tuesday night we get lucky in the lottery," Holland said. "Let’s hope that like these other teams I’ve just mentioned, our ball gets picked. And if not, we’re going to get a good player, no matter where we pick in the draft. We’re going to pick in the top seven or eight, I would think, as we sit here today. We're getting a good player.
"Certainly if you get up there to No. 1 or No. 2 you’re getting a really, really good player. But in order to get one or two, even if you have the worst record in the league, you only get an 18.5 percent chance at the first pick."
The top three teams in the lottery are currently the Senators (62 points), Kings (67) and Devils (70). They're followed by the Sabres (72), Red Wings (74) and Rangers (75). New York has one more game remaining than Detroit.