When it comes to the NCAA Tournament, brackets are an exciting way for many to participate in the gambling action. What makes it fun is that you don't have to be a "gambler" to partake, as year in and year out upsets help even the playing field. Hence, the term March Madness.
Everyone has their own strategies for filling out bracket sheets.
I, for one, look at several factors before filling out my bracket. One of my biggest gotos is utilizing KenPom metrics to see how teams fall in various areas. For example, teams that fit the KenPom 40/20 rule or near it, historically win the National Championship. Once I narrow my Champion list down using that profile, I like to work my way backwards from there.
I also try to look for several other factors including matchups, coaches that have been to the Big Dance before, senior-laden teams, squads with guards that can take over games, teams that can shoot well from deep or cause havoc on defense, and of course, my eye test.
However, no matter how prepared you are, it’s called March MADNESS for a reason.
Case in point, my wife has beaten me three times over the last decade in our family pools. Her method of selection is always quick and simple. She chooses teams off of her favorite schools to visit or places that her, her friends and family attended. She’s even gone the colors and mascots route some years. Anything that gets the bracket done as quickly as possible. Her words, not mine.
My wife’s success against me aside, using a solid strategy usually leads to a successful bracket. You can say, there is some method to the madness.
To dig deeper into various bracket theories, I caught up with four guys that eat, breathe, and dream about college basketball: Thomas Casale, Ken Barkley, Eli Hershkovich and Reed Wallach.
I picked their brains on bracket advice, so let’s take a look at insights on the process:
Thomas Casale
The last time I won a bracket, Danny Manning was leading Kansas to a National Championship as a senior. He's now 54 years old!
I approach brackets differently than betting. With real money on the line, I'm more selective and base everything purely on matchups.
With brackets, I'm Mr. Upset. I picked Weber State and Harold "The Show" Arceneaux to beat North Carolina 100 years ago. (Writer’s note: actually blah blah years) Ever since then, I have picked too many crazy upsets. I'd advise against that if you really want to win a bracket's pool.
Don’t listen to people on TV. They say crazy things with nothing behind it. Too many people will get burned hearing TV analysts say Colgate will beat Arkansas. Maybe it happens, but that's a God-awful matchup for Colgate.
Don't try to be a genius. If you like to get more in-depth, two of the most useful metrics are rebounding and turnovers. If a team gets killed on the boards or turns the ball over a lot, its stay in the tournament will likely be a short one.
Good luck, The Casale Method.
Ken Barkley
I try to think of the bracket as two different types of risk-reward analysis.
The first one is the one that seems flashy but that you actually want to avoid. If you pick a 13 seed to beat a 4 in the first round, and the 13 wins, you get heaps of praise from everyone, so it seems like something that is desirable. But the net gain of being right on such a bold prediction is typically just 1 point in a traditional scoring system.
Meanwhile, if your (frequently large underdog) 13-seed loses, you've lost a point on literally everyone in the contest, for an outcome that was heavily weighted towards the 3 seed (chosen by everyone else). That's bad risk-reward.
Good risk-reward is taking games that are ACTUALLY coin flips late in the tournament, even in the Sweet 16 (Texas-Alabama, Ohio State-Arkansas are potential matchups that can happen at that point) and taking the less desirable side of the coin.
Using ESPN's public bracket data, or whoever else gathers such large-scale information, you can figure out whether many more people are likely to be on "heads" or "tails" in a true 50-50 outcome. Then you can select the opposite side. 80% of people are taking Ohio State to advance, but the spread is likely to be very small, maybe even a pick-em, against Arkansas? Take Arkansas.
The reward is frequently large (as the scoring increases later in the tournament) but the risk is much smaller than your escapade earlier, since Arkansas really has a good shot to win and advance in the hypothetical above.
The team you've picked is going to win half the time, and half the time you will gain a lot on the field. None of this is team-specific to this year's tournament, but that's the best way I can explain my thoughts about filling out a bracket.
Eli Hershkovich
I'm always looking for teams that have the potential to be close to matchup-proof and boast defined pieces that have transformed while peaking at the right time.
Texas fits the bill, especially in a wide-open East Region that will have a multitude of teams coming out of your pools' brackets.
Reed Wallach
Matchups are the key to everything. While I may think a certain team is great, I might hate their path and ultimately end up fading them in the tournament.
I use KenPom to get a clean look at how two teams matchup, but I also need to do some forecasting when I’m doing my bracket before the Tournament starts. I try to think long-term. That’s where months of watching these teams and keeping my own notes plays a huge role.
Some of it is gut feel, some of it is the numbers, you put it all together and you get what you get. I don’t try to be super contrarian just to be, because there’s no right or wrong method, but I do try to side with what I’ve seen.
For example, I have Arkansas coming out of the South Region. My eyes tell me that this is an incredibly balanced team that is well coached and has a deep rotation. I see a vulnerable two seed in Ohio State who can’t stop anyone on defense and Baylor, who may be a bit more vulnerable than we first thought. To me, Arkansas is an under the radar team that has a realistic shot at making the Final 4.
On the flip side, Baylor is an amazing team that’s the best three-point shooting team in the country. They may run Arkansas off the floor, if they even get there. Ultimately though, everything has led me to believe they have a chance.
That’s the beauty of the tournament, every bracket will be different and even though I scour through numbers and watch a bunch of games, others will just throw darts at a wall or pick based on the mascots.
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