In November, the Lions were clearly the best team in the NFC, and perhaps the entire league.
That was before a rash of injuries and a thrashing by the Bills. Before the Eagles fortified, the Lions melted down in the playoffs and much of their coaching staff departed.
The NFL offseason begins in earnest next week with the free agent signing period, and Lions general manager Brad Holmes will be entering a new phase.
His first four years were about building, and Holmes was incredible. The Lions’ football operations have never been this solid. This phase, however, is trickier and more nuanced.
The Lions not only must maintain the foundation Holmes and head coach Dan Campbell so adroitly poured, but find extra elements to put the Lions over the top.
Philly has passed the Lions. The Eagles are just a better team. The upstart Commanders have already found a perfect addition in versatile receiver Deebo Samuel, via trade. The Rams suddenly have a solid young nucleus and re-signed Matthew Stafford. The Packers are a young team and figure to be improved, while the Vikings could be formidable again if they solve their quarterback puzzle.
For the Lions, reprising their 15-2 record and the top NFC seed is more a pipe-dream than likely considering their schedule, which is brutal with road games at Washington, Philadelphia, Kansas City, Cincinnati, Baltimore and the Rams.
If it all sounds too much to handle, it isn’t necessarily. The Lions, for all the ominous signs, have as many star-caliber players in their prime as any NFL team. Their quarterback situation -- for better (Jared Goff has posted prestigious numbers and won 80 percent of his last 44 regular season starts), or worse (it can get ugly when he must improvise) -- is settled.
The Lions will undoubtedly be cap-strapped in the future because all the rookie contracts are going to be due, but not so much this coming season. There is wiggle room to improve. The Lions still have the 11th-most cap space in the league, nearly $50 million. They have two key potential free agent departures, cornerback Carlton Davis III and guard Kevin Zeitler, both of whom were out of the playoff disaster because of injuries -- and mightily missed.
The Lions have to make a decision on left guard Graham Glasgow. He had a subpar season, and there is no way they will carry his $7.4 million cap hit this year. The buyout is $5.3 million. Glasgow, 32, is also the backup center.
Left tackle Taylor Decker is also 32 and center Frank Ragnow has turf toe from hell.
Given Goff’s obvious limitations, the offensive line is an obvious area to extend resources. There is a plethora of options for Holmes in free agency, but nothing obvious. It’s either top-end players like Colts guard Will Fries coming off serious injuries with potential long-term cap ramifications, or veteran plug-in types past their prime like Jaguars guard Brandon Scherff.
Cornerback is another obvious concern. The Lions got a lot of good football from free agents Davis and Amik Robertson last season, but still ended the campaign relying on Kindle Vildor and Morice Norris Jr., the latter making his NFL debut from the practice squad. It was like trying to put out a four-alarm fire with water pistols. The Lions can expect reasonable season-to-season improvement from Terrion Arnold, and a return from injury for Ennis Rakestraw should help. But there is a lesson learned: You can never have enough cornerback depth.
Next up is defensive line. Aidan Hutchinson and Alim McNeill are coming off significant injuries. It’s particularly unlikely that McNeill (torn ACL) will be ready for the start of the season. D.J. Reader has a $13 million cap hit. That will have to be re-done or he will be released with a $5 million dead cap hit. The Lions can bring back Za’Darius Smith at $5.7 million, and there is no dead cap hit for releasing him. He was surprisingly productive as a pass rusher last season, but played poorly in the playoff debacle and has slipped to a subpar run defender.
What is not feasible is a great elixir arriving at edge rusher to save the day.
Goff’s contract is less than 12 percent of the cap in 2025, but that percentage doubles in 2026. The big hits kick in as well in ‘26 on the extensions for Amon-Ra St. Brown, Penei Sewell and McNeill. And that’s before Holmes addresses long-term deals for core pieces Jahmyr Gibbs, Brian Branch, Kerby Joseph, Hutchinson, Sam LaPorta, Jameson Williams and Jack Campbell.
It sure isn’t as simple as adding an edge rusher opposite Hutchinson to win a Super Bowl.
There is no logic to the Lions trading for star edges like Myles Garrett or Trey Hendrickson. They are seeking extensions. In 2025, the combined cap hits for Goff, St. Brown, Sewell and McNeill are $62 million. In 2026, that rises to $158 million. Sure, there will be restructuring, but that has its limitations. Again, that’s before raises for two thirds of the elite players Holmes has drafted.
None of this is to suggest the Lions’ window is closing, but the path to a Super Bowl championship is going to be more difficult.
It can be done, though. The classic example are the Eagles. They collapsed at the end of the 2023 after being prohibitive favorites to reach the Super Bowl.
Then they switched out D’Andre Swift’s $1.75 million cap hit for Saquon Barkley’s $3.8 million. It was considerably less than Swift’s with the Bears ($5.8 million). All-Pro linebacker Zack Baun had a $1.6 million cap hit, signing as a free agent. In other words, two first-team All Pros, one on each side of the ball, for a combined cap hit of just over $5 million. It was genius.
The Eagles also drafted cornerbacks Cooper DeJean and Quinyon Mitchell. DeJean, a second-rounder, and Mitchell, a first-rounder, were the NFL’s first- and eighth-rated corners, according to Pro Football Focus.
While there is a strong desire for sizzle this coming week, the Lions need substance. Holmes is pragmatic, but not a hesitant decision-maker. This is a much different scenario, but doable given his stellar track record.