Running backs aren't worth a first-round pick, we're told. They're too likely to break down and too easy to replace. They can be found for much better value later in the draft. Will Brad Holmes and the Lions make an exception for Bijan Robinson?
Holmes and the Rams once made an exception for Todd Gurley -- and wound up with the 2017 Offensive Player of the Year. Then again, maybe it wasn't an exception at all. When the Rams took Gurley 10th overall in 2015 with Holmes as their director of college scouting, maybe it was just another example of the draft philosophy that Holmes has brought to Detroit.
"I just look at it as they're all football players," Holmes said last week as the Lions prepare to make two first-round picks in Thursday's draft. "If they can help you, they can help you."
Over five seasons with the Rams, Gurley helped them win two division titles and reach the Super Bowl. He was second in the NFL in rushing during that span (to fellow first-round pick Ezekiel Elliott) and first in rushing touchdowns. He slowed down in year five and fizzled out with the Falcons a year later, but the Rams got one of the most electric players in the NFL amid their window of contention in the NFC.
(One pick before Gurley in 2015, the Giants drafted washout offensive tackle Ereck Flowers at a so-called value position.)
Think Robinson could help the Lions? The top running back in the country last season as the winner of the Doak Walker Award -- named after the Lions Hall of Famer, we should note -- Robinson is also the top running back in the draft and "one of the five best players in this class," says draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah. "He is elite." Robinson could well be on the board for Detroit at No. 18. Who knows how long he'll last in the NFL, but there's little doubt he'll burst off the blocks.
And there's zero doubt Robinson would benefit from running behind an elite offensive line in Detroit, just like Gurley once did in LA (and Zeke once did in Dallas). The Lions' window is open in the NFC. Adding Robinson to a backfield featuring David Montgomery and D'Andre Swift and to an offense that already looks like one of the NFL's best would push their ceiling higher.
"I understand the narrative around (drafting running backs)," said Holmes, "but if you think a player is that good, and he's out there producing for you, I don't think anyone is going to look back and say -- I don't think anyone said in 2016 or '17 or '18, 'Man, they picked Todd Gurley at 10.' No. He was just a really good running back. He was one of the top prospects in the draft, so we didn't really bat an eye."
Holmes doesn't draft for need, but he does draft for the future. He considers each pick "a big investment" that requires "a long-term approach." With Swift carrying a history of injuries into his contract season, there's a good chance this is his final year in Detroit. With fresh legs, Robinson could fill the void. He also has terrific hands -- the best hands on our team," said his coach at Texas, Steve Sarkisian -- a rare talent whose skill set is perfectly suited to the NFL.
Whether or not they use the No. 6 pick to elevate their defense, the Lions can afford a luxury pick at No. 18. After they shored up their secondary in free agency, Holmes said he believes they're "in a position where we can do anything we want. I just don't feel like we're pressed." And while it's in vogue to dismiss running backs early in the draft, is it that much of a luxury to take one? Half of the NFL's top 10 rushers last season were picked in the first round. Only one -- Aaron Jones, who ranked 10th -- was picked after the second.
It's true that it's rarely worth paying a running back in the NFL. That is, anteing up for a second contract. It's much less of a gamble to pay one on a rookie deal. As NBC Sports' Peter King recently outlined, Robinson's average cap hit in his first four seasons as the No. 18 pick would be $3.8 million -- or less than Jamaal Williams' cap hit last season. (And barely half of Montgomery's cap hit in 2025). And the Lions would have his fifth-year option in their back pocket.
"I don't mind taking a running back in the first round as long as your team is ready to win right now," said Jeremiah. "If you take into account the guy has four or five, six years of elite production, I don't mind getting him in the first round because you get the extra year on the contract. It's easy to control it. Then I have a franchise tag number, if I want, that could take me through all of his prime.
"But I don't want to waste carries on a crappy team. I want all of his carries over that five-year period to count and help push toward a championship."
Robinson stands to make an immediate impact wherever he lands. He could make an even bigger one in Detroit after Jameson Williams was suspended for the first six games of this season. Again, Holmes would never draft with one third of one season in mind, but there's value in adding a dynamic pass catcher to a win-now team that will be missing its most explosive receiver out of the gate.
In the words of his coach, Robinson "can run routes like a receiver and catch the ball like a receiver." In Robinson's own words, his inspiration as a running back and the player he watches "every other day" on YouTube is none other than Barry Sanders: "I'm always trying to mimic his moves. He was so good at doing the things you couldn’t do." In other words, the NFL better buckle up. If Robinson is on the board at 18, Jeremiah says Detroit should take him: "It's almost like this is a gift. I can't turn this away."
Holmes knows the Lions are sitting pretty. They already have arguably the best roster in the NFC North, and they're about to make four picks in the first two rounds of the draft. It's rare for a contender -- and that's what the Lions are in the NFC -- to have this much draft capital: "These opportunities don't come every year," said Holmes.
"So you want to take advantage as much as you can," he said. "But again, we're just focused on our process in this draft. Regardless of what we did in free agency, regardless of how we ended last season, we've just gotta stay aggressive, keep our foot on the gas and make sure that we’re acquiring the best players."
If one of the five best players on the board is available at No. 18, Holmes and the Lions might have a hard time saying no. For this team, maybe this running back is worth a first-round pick.
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