The Lions saw one Defensive Player of the Year candidate go down, only for another to rise. Aidan Hutchinson was leading the race when he fractured his leg in October. Kerby Joseph is making a charge with the finish line in sight.
After two more interceptions in the Lions' win over the 49ers, Joseph leads the NFL with nine on the season, two more than anyone else. His first pick in San Fran was a gift. His second was further proof that the third-year safety has become arguably the most dangerous ballhawk in the NFL: Joseph read the eyes of Brock Purdy, jumped a pass over the middle to Ricky Pearsall and came down with the goods to set up his team to seal the game.
"That’s our identity, man, to take the ball away, especially on the backend," Joseph said. "As the DB’s, that’s what we’re known for, especially me, man. My superpower, I feel like, is taking the ball away, so going out there to make plays."
Defensive Player of the Year has turned into an award for the league's best pass-rusher, which makes sense when consistently rushing the passer is, well, the best defensive play. The last three winners -- Myles Garrett, Nick Bosa and T.J. Watt -- led the league in sacks. Aaron Donald won three of the four before that as the most dominant defensive lineman in the game.
The last defensive back to win DPOY was corner Stephon Gilmore in 2019. The last safety to win it was Troy Polamalu in 2010. If any defensive back wins it this year, the favorite is Broncos corner Pat Surtain II, who has smothered No. 1 receivers all season long. But at least by the betting odds, Joseph is starting to earn serious consideration. As he well should. A similar sentiment is taking shape in the public.
"Based on what I’ve seen," said Glover Quin, the last Lions safety to lead the league in interceptions, "yeah, I would have to vote for him. I would love to see a fellow Detroit Lion, fellow safety take that honor. I think that’s huge for our position, huge for the team. Just based on what I’ve seen at this moment, I don’t know who the other candidates would be, nobody really stands out that I can think of off the top of my head."
There hasn't been an overwhelmingly dominant pass-rusher this season -- not since Hutchinson went down -- which opens the DPOY door to others. Watt, it should be said, has another strong case as the best player on an overachieving Steelers team. Garrett and Trey Hendrickson will get votes as the co-leaders in sacks. Linebackers Nick Bonitto of the Broncos, Andrew Van Ginkel of the Vikings and Zach Baun of the Eagles have strong resumes as well.
But you can't ignore Joseph. You just can't. Quandre Diggs, another former Lions safety who's currently on the Titans, joined the chorus after Monday night's game: "Kerb for DPOY!!" Joseph has a chance to be the first safety with double-digit picks since Mark Carrier of the Bears (and later the Lions) in 1990, 10 years before Joseph was born. And he can do it in the climactic game of the season with major playoff implications on Sunday Night Football. Last time he played on such a stage, he picked off Aaron Rodgers and sent the Packers packing. So you can try to ignore Joseph; he'll just force you to look.
"I think a lot of it will have to do with Sunday night, having that big game on the national stage," said Quin. "If he can come up big with everybody watching and make some plays, then obviously they’re going to talk about the season that he’s had, the numbers that he’s put up. And then if the Lions go on to win that game, I think that will go a long way into his chances of winning DPOY."
On top of boasting the most interceptions in the NFL this season, Joseph has the most (17) since he entered the league in 2022 -- three more than anyone else. This isn't something he "imagined," Joseph said. "I envisioned it."
"I knew this was going to happen," he said. "I didn’t really put a number on it, man, I just wanted to lead the pack. I wanted to separate myself. I wanted to be different. I want to be great in this league, man. I don’t want to be no Average Joe. I don’t want to be good. I want to be great. I want to be able to say, yeah, I deserve that gold jacket one day. I feel like every year, man, I just keep getting better, keep getting better. And I don’t think I’m ever going to stop."
DPOY is not to be confused with MVP (the award for quarterbacks), but it's hard to overstate Joseph's value to the Lions. Their injury-ravaged defense is missing starters at every level. Joseph is the star who continues to flip games. Without him, the 14-2 Lions might be closer to 10-6 and scratching to make the playoffs.
Take their last game: Joseph provided Detroit's only two stops on defense in a one-score win. Or their first game: he picked off Matthew Stafford in the end zone in a game that went to overtime. He also had an end-zone pick in a a one-score win over the Cardinals and a pick-six that propelled the Lions to a victory at Lambeau.
"With a lot of guys going down, to have somebody who’s been in there game in and game out, day in and day out, to provide that consistency, that stability and that leadership, you can’t really put a value on that," said Quin. "It means so much to the team, to the defense, and to the players just to know that they got somebody back there like him that they trust and somebody that’s going to make big plays for them."
Quin, one of the most cerebral safeties to ever play the position, said that what he admires most about Joseph's game is that "it doesn’t look like he gambles a lot to make plays."
"He just plays his role, plays his position, and when he sees an opportunity to go, he goes," said Quin. "I think that’s what makes you great, to be able to not chase interceptions. There’s enough plays to go around for everybody. You don't have to put the defense in bad situations because you’re trying to be greedy to go make a play that’s not your play to make. He just went through a five-game stretch where he didn’t catch an interception but he continued to tackle well, continued to play well. I like when safeties can be effective, can be dominant by playing their role, empowering other guys, and then when they see an opportunity to make plays, they got the courage to go make ‘em, and they prove to be big plays for the defense.
"When you look at this last game, the way he was playing it, they were trying to hit the little skinny post and he was right there in the middle of the field and he got rewarded for playing his position. The first one, Purdy overthrows it right to him, and then the next one, he makes great a break on it and comes downhill and makes the interception."
Food for thought: when Gilmore won DPOY, he had six picks and 20 passes defended for the Patriots' top-ranked defense. When Polamalu won it, he had seven picks, 11 passes defended and six tackles for loss for the Steelers' top-ranked defense. In both cases, it felt like the award celebrated a unit by honoring its best player.
It will work against Joseph that he plays on a team known for its offense,
but: nine picks, 12 passes defended and a passer rating in coverage of 39.9, per Pro Football Reference, for the first-place Lions. And while we're here, 77 legal tackles. Joseph's only penalty of the season came against the 49ers for backing up Terrion Arnold during a skirmish after the whistle. (He was also fined in Detroit's win over Arizona for a hit on a defenseless receiver that wasn't flagged during the game.)
"I think it’ll be hard for him to win it just because the voters will probably limit his production only to interceptions," said Quin. "Meaning, when you look at his impact on the game (compared to) a guy like Polamalu, he was catching interceptions, he was forcing fumbles, he was getting sacks, tackles for loss, because he was playing around the ball a lot and doing a lot of different things in that regard."
To the voters who might say Joseph doesn't have any sacks, "well, he doesn’t blitz, so he’s not going to get any sacks," said Quin. To those who might say he only has one tackle for loss, "well, he plays in the deep middle of the field for most of the game, so he’s not going to have a lot of those things that they may tend to look for," said Quin.
"It’ll be interesting to see how they view his season with the interceptions that he had, but I definitely think he put his name in the conversation," Quin said.
Joseph has recorded more picks through three seasons than any NFL safety since Hall of Famer Ed Reed, who won DPOY in year three of his career on the strength of an NFL-high nine interceptions. Earlier this season, Joseph said it's "everything" to be mentioned in the same breath as one of the best to ever do it, "even just the comparison." In year three of his career, Joseph might follow in Reed's footsteps again.
"To come out in a winner-take-all game Sunday against Minnesota, at home, that would be the perfect stage for him to catch his 10th interception," said Quin, "and hopefully help lead the team to a big win over the Vikings to lock up the No. 1 seed."