The last time he held a pick late in the first round, Brad Holmes cut the line for a player he coveted. Will he do so again?
"I wouldn't rule that out," NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah said last week. "I mean, they're knocking on the door. They are right on the cusp of being a championship team. So if there's a time to be aggressive, this would be it."
Holmes would say the Lions' championship window has little to do with their approach to the draft. They're looking for "impactful players," regardless of position or need, especially in the early rounds. That's what compelled him to trade up from No. 32 to No. 12 to draft Jameson Williams in 2022.
"You guys have seen how we operate in the past," Holmes said last week. "If this is the player that we want, we're going to go get him."
If the Lions do move up from No. 29 on Thursday, two positions stand out as targets. One is arguably their biggest need. The other is inarguably the most important position group on their roster, "the foundation, the core of our team," said Holmes. And both feature immediate difference-makers who might be gone before the Lions are on the clock.
"They've got some age on the offensive line, so if there's a guy they feel like they love, to go up there and get one wouldn't shock me at all," Jeremiah said. "Corner position is one they continue to look at. They've done a lot of homework on the corner class and talking to some agents over the last week. So I think if one of those top corners starts to drift a little bit, they could go up there and do that as well."
The Lions' offensive line is the engine of their success. It also features a center with a chronic toe injury entering year seven, a left tackle and a guard both entering year 10 and another guard entering year 13. It needs fortifying, especially on the interior, where Jackson Powers-Johnson, Graham Barton and Zach Frazier all look like first-round picks. Remember, the first player Holmes and Dan Campbell drafted in Detroit was Penei Sewell. The first player they extended was Frank Ragnow.
"We’re firm believers that that’s where the game is won," Holmes said last week.
At cornerback, the Lions have already made upgrades this offseason. They traded for a No. 1 in Carlton Davis III, signed a potential No. 2 in Amik Robertson and brought back veteran insurance in Emmanuel Moselely, who essentially cancels out the release of Cam Sutton. The need isn't as pressing as it might seem for a team that allowed the most air yards and second most yards per pass in the NFL last season.
But Davis, like imported guard Kevin Zeitler, is only signed for one year, and has a history of missing games. Robertson is intriguing but unproven as a full-time starter on the outside, and Moseley has barely played the past two seasons due to a pair of torn ACL's. And the draft has at least four corners who could fly off the board in the first round in Quinyon Mitchell, Nate Wiggins, Cooper DeJean and Terrion Arnold.
If Holmes makes a move for one, it means he sees a star. While he stopped short of calling himself a "a snob of outside corners" earlier this offseason, he does hold them to an especially high standard after spending a decade cross-checking that position as a scout for the Rams. He's taken just two outside corners in his three drafts in Detroit, and none in the top 100.
Asked last week about this year's cornerback class, Holmes called it "a solid group" that's very similar to previous drafts "in terms of the guys that I think are true, legit Day 1 guys or Day 2 guys."
For the Lions to trade up for any player in the first round, "a lot of boxes need to be checked," said Holmes. That goes beyond talent. There's also the question of, "How high are you talking? Is it way high? Is it just a few spots?" A cornerback like Mitchell could require the Lions moving up some 15 spots, who would come at a pretty steep cost that early in the draft.
The Lions already traded their third-round pick in the Davis trade and lost their fourth-rounder in the T.J. Hockenson trade in 2022. They do have the Vikings' third-rounder from that same trade. If they move up in the first round, they'll likely limit themselves to two picks in the top 100.
"But look, if it's a guy we really want, we'll definitely make an effort if it makes sense," said Holmes. "It just sometimes might not make sense. You have to look at what you're giving up. It's a good question about where the roster is at. You have to look at expiring contracts coming up, and that goes into it."
When the Lions traded up for Williams, they packaged No. 32 with Nos. 34 and 66 to also get No. 46 back. That was crucial in ensuring they didn't go more than 50 selections without making a pick. And perhaps it was a preview of their next bold move in the draft. For all the focus on corners and offensive linemen, wide receiver is another sneaky position of need for Detroit.
They have three picks in the top 100 entering Thursday: Nos. 29, 61 and 73. If they don't see 29 players as first-round talents -- they saw fewer than 20 in last year's draft -- it might indeed be time for another move up the board.
"Either way, if you're trading for a player, you've identified him," said Holmes. "But me and Dan have been saying it from Day 1: It has to be the right fit."