The Detroit Lions closed as a 3-point road favorite against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 6. They won and covered the spread.
It was one of five ATS wins in seven Week 6 opportunities for favorites of 3 points or fewer. It was another strong week for short favorites after a brutal start to the season.
Through Week 3, favorites of 3 points or fewer went 4-13-2 (.235) for an ROI of -49.4%, i.e., if you bet $100 on each of those 19 favorites, you would’ve lost more than $900.
Since Week 4: 23-15-2 (.605) for an ROI of +14.1%.
That’s been a consistent trend in recent years; short favorites struggle in early-season games. They haven’t been profitable through the first three weeks of a single season since 2017:
2023: -49.4%
2022: -14.7%
2021: -42.9%
2020: -24.1%
2019: -42.7%
2018: -8.2%
But, unlike in most recent years, short favorites in 2023 have rebounded to profitability after the first three weeks:
2023: +14.1%
2022: +2.7%
2021: -9.6%
2020: -11.7%
2019: -9.5%
2018: -10.6%
As of Tuesday’s NFL lines at BetMGM, the Lions are a 2.5-point road favorite over the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 10. It’s one of seven games with a spread of 3 or fewer points — and two more games are at 3.5 points. Another strong week would keep short favorites on pace for their best post-Week 3 ROI since 2005.
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