So we know that the first three picks of the NFL Draft will be quarterbacks. And we know that the next three picks will also be offensive players, right?
Which means the Lions will have their pick of the defensive litter at No. 7, a year after breaking franchise records for defensive futility. Seems to line up well for Detroit.
Not that the Lions are a lock to go defense. Not at all. The Lions aren't even a lock to pick No. 7 amid reports that GM Brad Holmes is trying to trade down. And if they stay there, they might like one of the top wide receivers or offensive linemen over any defensive player on the board.
Per SI's Albert Breer, "I’d just keep an eye on the background of the two guys in charge, GM Brad Holmes and coach Dan Campbell, and their history of valuing offensive linemen (Penei Sewell? Rashawn Slater?)."
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During Holmes' eight-year stint as Rams' director of college scouting, the club spent two of its top picks on offensive linemen, including Greg Robinson second overall in 2014. And during Campbell's five-year stint as assistant head coach of the Saints, the club spent two of its top picks on offensive linemen, plus another first-rounder.
All that said, the Lions ache for more talent on defense. Specifically, they ache for more speed at linebacker. (They ache for more speed, period.) By many accounts, the best defensive player in the draft is Penn State LB Micah Parsons -- though CB's Patrick Surtain and Jaycee Horn are pushing him for this distinction. He's certainly the best player at his position.
And the Lions just happened to add one of the best linebackers in franchise history to their front office.
Per Breer, "the presence of Chris Spielman ... would explain why I’ve heard them connected to Penn State LB Micah Parsons."
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Parsons might be the ideal pick for the Lions, beyond his ability to fill a need. The potential value lies in a trade-down scenario where the club gets more picks on top of one of the best defensive talents in the draft.
So back to those first six picks. You can take quarterbacks Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson out of play at No. 7. But Assuming Mac Jones, Justin Fields or Trey Lance is still on the board, the Lions could have trade partners in QB-needy teams like the Broncos (No. 9), Patriots (No. 15) and Washington (No. 19).
Then it's a matter of value. What's the price of moving out of the top 10? What's the price of moving out of the top half of the first round? In a recent mock draft by The Athletic, the Lions sent the seventh overall pick to the Patriots for picks Nos. 15, 46 and a third-rounder next year.
And Parsons, for what it's worth, was still on the board when the Lions were on the clock. (And the Lions, for what it's worth, went with USC OLC Alijah Vera-Tucker. Parsons went two picks later to the Raiders.) Other mocks don't have Parsons on the board beyond the top 10.
These unknowns are all part of the calculus for Holmes and the Lions. Whatever happens, fair to say Parsons will be a factor in the equation.