With the game on the line last Thursday, the Lions' two best pass-rushers were mano-a-mano with the man across from them. Both Aidan Hutchinson and Alim McNeill won, yet neither got home. With Hutchinson and McNeill in his face, Jordan Love flung a back-foot pass on fourth down to Dontayvion Wicks to seal the Packers' 31-24 win and capture the state of Detroit's pass rush: just not good enough.
The Lions have one sack in regulation time in their last three games, two counting the final play of overtime in their narrow win over the Giants. They barely grazed Love on Thanksgiving and watched him throw four touchdowns. They let Jameis Winston hang three touchdowns and nearly 400 yards on them the week before that. The coverage has generally been sound, but the front hasn't made nearly enough noise.
Asked Monday if the Lions are affecting the quarterback enough to play the man-to-man style they prefer in the secondary, defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard said, "I don’t think we’ve affected the quarterback to play any style these last couple of weeks. I don’t care what kind of style we want to play."
Despite their aggressive defensive, the Lions are making quarterbacks comfortable. Last week, Love had less than 2.5 seconds to throw on just 30 percent of his drop-backs, the third lowest rate in the NFL, per Pro Football Focus. The week prior, Winston had less than 2.5 seconds to throw on just 24 percent of his drop-backs, the lowest rate in the NFL.
"And again, that starts with me," said Sheppard. "I’m not going to just point the finger (and say), ‘You’ve got to win the one-on-one.’ Yeah, no s**t. You have to win your one-on-ones in this league, but I also have to find ways to try to maximize what we do have at our disposal and put these guys in optimal position to be able to win, give them tools to win. I told the room, it’s our job to eliminate any gray (area), any hesitation in play, and it’s their job to go out and execute.
The Lions continue to produce quarterback pressures, which are starting to ring hollow. While they rank fifth in the NFL in pressure rate this season, per NextGenStats, more telling is the fact that they're last in Time To Pressure and last in Time To Throw. The simplest conclusion is that the coverage is holding up, the rush just isn't making it count. Regarding the latter, Sheppard said the Lions will make some tweaks to both personnel and scheme.
"But at the end of the day, you’re starting to get into November, December, players make plays," he said. "The players have to take accountability of that, I have to start with me and say, ‘What could I have done differently?’ And if guys are at the point of attack, if you have a one-on-one, you have to win those in this part of the season."
And really, that's what it comes back to. It's not coach-speak. It's not lip service. It's the fact of the matter in the NFL, where most games hinge on a handful of one-on-one matchups. There weren't many opportunities for the Lions to pin back their ears and get after Love on a day where he was getting the ball out quickly and the Packers only faced two third-and-longs, but the Lions failed to take advantage of those they had.
Hutchinson was one-on-one with Packers right tackle Zach Tom on back-to-back snaps early in the second quarter. On 3rd and 2, Tom slowed him on a power rush long enough for Love to take a shot to the end zone to Christian Watson, which was broken up by Brian Branch. On 4th and 2, Hutchinson was stonewalled on another bullrush, while McNeill couldn't loop past the guard quickly enough on a stunt with Roy Lopez, and Love connected on a 22-yard touchdown to Dontayvion Wicks.
On the Packers' next touchdown drive, Hutchinson had another one-on-one with Tom, this time on 3rd and 5 near midfield. While McNeill was doubled-teamed on the interior, Hutchinson was washed out of the play on a speed rush, giving Love plenty of time to hit Wicks for an 18-yard gain despite tight coverage by Amik Robertson.
On 2nd and 7 later in the drive with the Packers in the red zone, Hutchinson got a one-on-one with left tackle Rasheed Walker, who forced Hutchinson around the edge just wide enough to keep him from knocking the ball out of Love's hand as the quarterback took a deep drop and lofted an incomplete pass to his tight end, who was well covered by Branch.
This is not to pick on Hutchinson, who deals with more double-teams and chips than most pass-rushers in the NFL. But on yet another one-on-one early in the third quarter, Hutchinson looped behind Tyleik Williams from the left edge and was picked up rather easily by the left guard, who passed off Williams to the left tackle. While McNeill was slowed by a tight end and the tackle on the other edge, Love dropped back and fired a 51-yard touchdown to Christian Watson.
"There wasn’t a ton of these to where you had time to get in there, but we’ve got some guys that have some 1-on-1's and they have to win," Dan Campbell said Monday. "They’re the guys that we put in position to win that one-on-one, and they have got to apply pressure."
McNeill had his chances, too. On the Packers' second longest play of the game, a 30-yard pass down the seam to Wicks on their fourth touchdown drive, McNeill was one on one with Tom, who steered him just wide of Love on a power rush as the quarterback released the ball. Hutchinson was closing in from the left edge at the same time, before the guard lent the tackle a hand and wiped him out of the play.
McNeill was close again on the Packers' game-sealing drive. On 3rd and 5 from Green Bay's 40 when a stop would have given the Lions the ball back with a chance to tie it, McNeill broke through against right guard Anthony Belton, but Love still had enough time to hit Watson for an easy conversion on an out route against Terrion Arnold, with Hutchinson knocked off his rush by a chipping tight end.
Hutchinson acknowledged Sunday that "there were opportunities there" for the Lions' pass rush against Love "and I thought for the most part we were getting him off the spot and affecting him."
"But some of those, Lim went free and I wasn’t high enough and then he squirted out, and then me and Tyleik both went high (on another). It was just stuff where it just felt like it wasn’t quite aligning," said Hutchinson. "And a lot of the times when you’re rushing fast and playing fast as a D-line, these things kind of just work out, but it wasn’t quite happening for us last game. So we’re really putting an emphasis on communication and togetherness ... I think we just gotta get back to being on the same page and a lot of that production will be there."
It better be there Thursday night. If not, the Lions will get exposed again by Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens and the No. 1 passing offense in the NFL in a game Detroit can't afford to lose.
"The rush needs to be right, everything needs to be right for that sack to happen, especially with mobile quarterbacks. So, definitely, the D-line, we need to affect the game on Thursday if we want to win," Hutchinson said.
Hutchinson has 2.5 sacks in his last six games. McNeill has no sacks in six games since making his season debut, despite playing frequently on the edge in the last three weeks. Al-Quadin Muhammad, who's second on the team in sacks this season, has none in the last four games. Ditto Derrick Barnes and Jack Campbell, who are tied for third on the team in sacks. First-round pick Tyleik Williams and veteran DJ Reader, albeit in the trenches, have combined for zero sacks this season. Marcus Davenport didn't have a single pressure last Thursday in his first game back from his latest injury.
The issue is a simple one, said Sheppard: "Finisihing."
"It’s a lot of too close, almost happening, going into December where that absolutely won’t be tolerated," he said. "Being close isn’t good enough. You have to make that play. And that’s coverage and rush, they marry each other. There’s no dominant secondary without a good pass rush, there’s no good pass rush without some type of coverage happening on the backend.
"The guys understand that, and we have to find a way to mesh and gel those at the highest level this week against one of the top, if not the top offense in the NFL right now."
The difference between Hutchinson and the truly elite pass-rushers around the league is converting pressures into sacks. While Hutchinson is first in pressures, he's 10th in sacks with 8.5. Myles Garrett is fifth in pressures but first in sacks with 19; Micah Parsons is third in pressures and third in sacks with 12.5, including 2.5 last Thursday. And both of those players have logged significantly fewer snaps than Hutchinson, whose heavy workload might be taking its toll in the fourth month of the season.
"I look at everything that Hutch does," Campbell said Monday. "I know so much of it is about just the sack line ... but he does a million jobs for us, too, and he does more than rush the quarterback. He’s in there full-tilt, plays the run, plays the pass, chip, nudge, it’s not an excuse, but yeah, we’re always going to want more."
Sheppard wouldn't compare Hutchinson to Garrett and/or Parsons and said "what I know I have a high-level player, one of the best, if not the best, edge rushers in this league. He knows just like we know, people are going to plan for him. That’s why he is one of the best and he has to combat that. But it isn't a one-man show."
"Other people have to win," Sheppard went on. "I thought Mac was a very impactful rusher in the middle all Thanksgiving day. But it just can’t be those two guys. When your name is called, if you draw a one-on-one, you have to win in this league if you want to be around. It’s just simple as that."
Hutchinson needs help, which is OK to admit. In 28 combined pass-rushing snaps last week, Davenport and Muhammad combined for zero pressures. Perhaps that's a hint at a potential personnel change, with Tyler Lacy, who was inactive last week, getting another opportunity on the edge. But Tyler Lacy isn't saving the season.
Detroit's defensive ends have produced one half-sack in the Lions' last 16 quarters of regulation-time football. That is untenable for a team with Super Bowl aspirations that's now outside the playoff race looking in, entering the biggest game of the year against the best passing attack in football. The "no s**t" truth is this: their best players have to be better.
They had their one-on-one chances last week, "and we felt good about the person we had," said Campbell, "and we just didn’t quite get there in time."
And now, time is running out.