As the clock ticks louder and louder on Bob Quinn and Matt Patricia, so it does on Matthew Stafford. The Lions' franchise quarterback might not be with this franchise much longer. Good for Stafford. And good for the Lions, if they can stomach it. The two parties will be better off apart.
How did we get here? Let's rewind to 2016, if only to get the hell out of the present. Eight years after drafting Stafford first overall, the Lions were finally starting to gain some momentum. They were four games above .500 over the prior two seasons and raising expectations internally. Wanting more -- nothing wrong with that -- they imported Quinn from New England.
The new GM identified Stafford as a keeper right away. A year later, after Stafford garnered MVP talk while carrying the Lions to the playoffs, Quinn signed his quarterback to a big-money extension that now stands as a bargain. But the team's momentum stalled. Wanting more -- nothing wrong with that -- Quinn imported Patricia from New England.
Together, this Patriots-bred duo was going to take one of the most valuable commodities in the NFL -- a cost-controlled quarterback in his prime -- and turn the Lions into a winner. Together, Quinn and Patricia were going to make the most of Matthew Stafford in Detroit.
You know what's happened since.
Which brings us back to the present, and back to these words from Stafford's close friend and former teammate Dan Orlovsky:
"He’s either going to win there this year," Orlovksy told the Free Press prior to the start of this season, "or a winner’s going to come get him."
Stafford has played for three head coaches and two full-time GM's in Detroit. He's survived all the upheaval because he's good, widely considered one of the 10 best quarterbacks in the game. You don't discard that kind of talent. He's also survived because he's had the staunch support of ownership. At every juncture, the Fords wanted leaders who wanted Stafford.
But this is Year 12 for Stafford. It's hard to envision him surviving another regime change, and it sure looks like another one is coming. Not because Stafford isn't worth it anymore. But because at some point ownership has to fold this hand and start over. The all-in move came two years ago, hiring Patricia to replace Jim Caldwell. It flopped.
The next move, barring a sudden turnaround this season, is to get rid of the deck completely.
New GM. New head coach. And yeah, new quarterback, if that's the path the new regime prefers. Trading Stafford has been a financial non-starter since he signed his new deal. That's about to change. If they Lions were to trade him next offseason, they'd incur dead cap hits of $24.85 million in 2021, $9.9 million in 2022 and $4.95 million in 2023, per Spotrac. They'd save more money against the cap than they'd lose.
Would there be any takers? Assuming Stafford plays well this season -- better than he's played thus far -- there will be plenty. He'll be 33 next year. His contract only runs through 2023, so it's not a huge commitment. And he plays above his salary as it is. Once the highest-paid quarterback in the NFL, Stafford now ranks No. 13.
Know who might be in the market for a QB next offseason? New England. Cam Newton's on a one-year deal with a history of injuries. The Patriots won't lose enough to be in the running for Trevor Lawrence. They'll have the cap space to take on Stafford. It would be the final twist of this painful story for the Lions, exporting Stafford to the place from where those shiny imports came.
If not the Patriots, how about the Jaguars or the Colts, two teams in a transition phase at quarterback? And don't look now, but how about Stafford's hometown Cowboys? That door remains open as long as Dak Prescott and Dallas remain at odds on an extension.
It's all teetering right now, Detroit's season, Stafford's future and the organization's long-term outlook. A couple more losses and Quinn and Patricia could be gone by the Lions' Week 5 bye. They're probably in their final season either way. The duo has failed in Detroit, and failed Stafford in the process. They were supposed to make him the star of a winning team. Instead, they've set the stage for his departure.
The Lions have failed Stafford, too. And at times Stafford has failed the Lions. He's a legendary talent with a losing record. Everyone in this 12-year project shoulders blame. Time is running out to fix it, and maybe it's not worth fixing at all. Stafford deserves a chance to win. And the next regime in Detroit deserves a clean slate.