It's only been two seasons for Derek Lalonde. It's been eight for Dylan Larkin, who got a taste of the playoffs as a rookie and hasn't sniffed them since. As the calendar flips to February, the Red Wings can smell it. Keep playing like this, and they won't stop playing in April.
They lost Wednesday night, a frustrating stumble against the rival Senators. But it doesn't feel like a defeat that will follow Detroit into the All-Star break, which begins Thursday. They played too well in January to let the sting of a 3-2 overtime loss linger. As Lalonde said after his team rallied from a third-period deficit to force the game into the extra frame, where Ottawa won the face-off and didn't relinquish the puck until it was in the back of Detroit's net, "pretty good point, pretty good month."
Their best month, in fact, since January of 2012, when they also racked up 20 points. And their best pace through 50 games since 2015-16, when they also had 58 points. Those teams were led by a core of players for whom playoff hockey was a way of life. This team, which went 9-2-2 in January, is trying to snap a seven-year playoff drought, tied for the longest in franchise history. Larkin just might do it himself.
In seasons past, Larkin was weary by this point in the year, burdened by a heavier load than he could carry. He sprung to life when he got the puck on his stick below the goal line late in the third Wednesday night, galloping into the slot and zipping a wrister past Joonas Korpisalo to tie the game. It was Larkin's 10th goal and 16th point over Detroit's torrid stretch, and a captain's play when his team needed one. He's on pace for the best offensive season of his career. The Red Wings are on pace -- shhhhh! -- to make the playoffs.
"It’s one of those times, I guess, where you’re feeling good and the team’s playing well," said Larkin, understated and dare we say underrated. "It's just nice to contribute when the team’s winning."
Of course, Larkin isn't doing this alone. That's exactly why he's playing so well. This is arguably the best roster the Wings have iced in his career; it's certainly the deepest. They have legitimate scoring depth in forwards like Daniel Sprong, who leaned into a one-timer Wednesday night for his 13th goal of the season. He's on pace for more than 20 while playing fourth-line minutes. Sprong was teed up by Joe Veleno, who has already matched his point total from a year ago. The Wings had seven double-digit goal-scorers last season, least in the NHL. They already have 10 this season, most in the NHL, with more in the works.
But really, the offense is missing the point. The Red Wings have rallied with tighter team defense and terrific goaltending by Alex Lyon, who started all but one game in January and will welcome the week off. (He will, right?) Lyon's emergence couldn't have come at a better time, with Ville Husso injured and James Reimer struggling.
The Wings allowed more than four goals a game as they staggered through December and put their playoff hopes in jeopardy. It marked a concerning step back under Lalonde after watching Detroit play smart, tight-checking hockey in his first season as coach. Around the new year, "when we really had to emphasize our defense" in practice, said Lalonde, he set a new goal for his team of "60 minutes with two or less." Detroit allowed 2.5 goals per game in January, and held the opponent to two or fewer in regulation more often than not.
"It’s the only way you’re going to have success in this league," said Lalonde.
"Goaltending and penalty kill has helped that," said Larkin, "but I think our team defense has improved and our puck management, we’re not as much high-risk, high-reward. We’re doing it right and grinding teams down. This month we’ve really learned what our game is and how to win a hockey game."
Larkin's game continues to flourish. He's up to 47 points in 44 games, while frequently playing against the opposition's top line. He won another matchup Wednesday against Senators star Tim Stutzle, after outdoing the red-hot Jonathan Marchessault of the Golden Knights last Saturday with two goals in Detroit's' 5-2 win over the defending Cup champs. The underlying numbers might not love Larkin's play this season, but Lalonde would tell you those are just one of many tools to evaluate his play. The surface numbers reveal a 42-goal pace. The eyes say Larkin has clearly taken a jump. Not bad for a No. 2 center, huh? (We kid.)
"Winning those matchups versus other teams' top lines and still producing offense is a huge credit to him and some growth in his game," said Lalonde.
The Red Wings head into the break with a six-point cushion on the final wild card spot in the East. That might look different when they play their next game 10 days from now, with most teams resuming much sooner, but this push has been impressive. They leapfrogged four teams in January alone and are now on pace for 95 points, a reminder that fortunes can change quickly within a season. And that the Red Wings better come out of the break ready to rip when they host the Western-Conference leading Canucks and then play four out West, including stops in Vancouver and Edmonton, where the Oilers have only won 16 games in a row.
"This is going to be fun," said Lalonde. "Since I’ve been here, we’ve put all our energy and all our work into just getting us in the fight. And beginning of the year, I think we were (given) an eight percent chance to be in this battle. Even at Christmas, we were in that single-digit percentage to be in the battle, and now we’re here. It’s what we’ve asked for. Let’s see how we handle it. I’m really excited about watching us taking a run at it here."
Lalonde keeps the receipts, even if they're a little smudged (read: forged). Whatever they said at the start of the year, the projection models are much kinder to the Red Wings now, with their playoff odds up to about 50 percent over at MoneyPuck. The lead they've opened in the wild-card race is not insignificant, though every team chasing them has games in hand. The Penguins, with their pedigree (and four games in hand), and the Devils, with their depth of talent, (and three games in hand), feel like the biggest threats.
The Wings do have reinforcements on the way. Patrick Kane, who's missed the past seven games with a groin injury, and rugged top-four defenseman Ben Chiarot, who's missed the past five with a lower body, should return after the break. Husso should be back soon, too -- and the Wings will eventually need him. Lalonde knows Detroit can't keep riding Lyon like this. The return of Kane, who had 16 points through his first 19 games with the Wings and helped keep the team afloat in December, will lengthen the lineup "and probably slot everyone a little more proper" up front, said Lalonde.
"We’re getting more bodies at a really good time," said Larkin.
There is significant work to be done. The Red Wings made a similar push in February last season, only to slip ahead of the trade deadline and nudge GM Steve Yzerman toward the sell-off where he was already leaning. This year's deadline is March 8, and the Wings will have to convince Yzerman to at least stand pat. The rebuild -- that is, the future -- remains the priority here. The sign on the present must read Not For Sale.
We could pause to point out the Red Wings' troubling analytics, but their special teams have mostly made up for it. We could issue warnings about Lyon coming back down to earth, but goaltending is a galaxy of its own. We could wonder about a letdown after the break, which Lalonde is worried about himself: "When you’re away from it that long, you forget how hard you were actually competing." Or we could dive headfirst into a playoff race that should come right down to the wire.
"We put ourselves back in the fight," said Lalonde. "Great push from the guys. It was a good step for us, but that's all it was: a step."
The teams of yesteryear made the next step look easy. It will be the hardest one yet for this year's team, from in the race to in the playoffs, from here to there, where Larkin and the Red Wings have seven long years to leave in the past.