Naturally, speculation is rampant about what the perpetually-struggling Red Wings will do this off season. It begins in earnest with the NHL Draft this weekend, and the free agent signing period next week.
Two premier players, each in their prime, possibly appear available via trade, New York Islanders' defenseman Noah Dobson and Dallas Stars' winger Jason Robertson. The Red Wings should be interested.
And if not these two specific players, general manager Steve Yzerman should be hunting for those of similar caliber.
He has plenty of salary cap space to work with -- more than $21 million -- and enticing prospects to trade. The 13th overall pick in the draft doesn’t hold that much value, especially in this particular draft, which is middling at best. The Red Wings should consider dealing it for the right player. Unlike last summer, the Red Wings don’t have to sign franchise pieces long-term.
A sizzling steak on an open fire is on less of a hot seat than Yzerman, at least with fans. His talent evaluation has been abysmal with the Red Wings. They are carrying way too many overpriced veterans. It is holding back the strong core of Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond, Moritz Seider, Simon Edvinsson, Alex DeBrincat and Marco Kasper.
Dobson is ideal, but at age 25 with a couple big seasons under his belt before slumping on a dismal team in 2024-25, his asking price is going to be off the charts. The Islanders are going to make the restricted free agent a qualifying offer June 30 and possibly trade him. If he doesn’t sign long-term, he will be an unrestricted free agent in 2026.
The number being floated is $11 million per season. That’s a starting point of negotiations. It probably wouldn't take quite that much, but the Red Wings would assuredly have to make him their highest-paid player and over a long term. Dobson’s value is only heightened by being a right-handed shot.
Robertson is a big-time scoring talent who had a 109-point season in ’22-23, but hasn’t maintained that level since. Still, he was an 80-point scorer each of the last two seasons. He has two 40-goal seasons. He also posts, playing every game for three straight campaigns.
Robertson, who will turn 26 next month, has a season remaining before restricted free agency. The Stars are frustrated by three straight exits in the Western Conference finals and perhaps wanting to shake up the deck. Set for a $7 million cap hit, Robertson would be costly.
Here’s the issue: Will Yzerman be willing to trade high-end prospects like defensemen Axel Sandin-Pellikka and center Nate Danielson? To acquire difference-making players like Dobson or Robertson will require more than Jonatan Berggren, J.T. Compher and a bag of pucks.
Yzerman must be willing to step out on that limb.
Of course, there is a plethora of unrestricted free agents available. Yzerman has displayed the propensity for acquiring veteran players, some well past their prime, in the area of $5 million per season. It’s been a disastrous strategy.
Yes, you have to overpay for players like Dobson and Robertson. Yet, it’s clearly better to have a $10 million player who can play regularly on a top-two line, or a top defensive pair, than a couple third-liners and/or bottom-pairing defensemen.
Larkin, DeBrincat, Raymond and Seider signed up for the long haul and deserve better than the suspect supporting cast and lack of urgency Yzerman has presented. So do Red Wings’ fans, who were forced to watch their team regress last season because of more poor veteran talent evaluations by the general manager.
The ready-made excuses for Yzerman have dried up.
If he can’t get it right this off season, it’s reasonable to expect he never will.