Steve Yzerman made the point himself, and we'll echo it off the top: It's hard to win without a workhorse in net. The Red Wings are still searching for theirs.
Just once in the last 12 seasons have the Wings had a goalie finish among the top 10 in the NHL in starts, and that was two years ago when they ran Ville Husso into the ground. Their .899 save percentage over that stretch ranks among the worst teams in the league.
"We need the goalies to stop the puck more," Yzerman said matter of factly at his end-of-season press conference last week.
And as a matter of fact, the Red Wings haven't ranked in the top half of the NHL in team save percentage over a full season since 2015-16, the last time they made the playoffs. They came in at .896 this season, tied for 20th.
Yzerman acknowledged that the organizational approach in net throughout his tenure as GM has been "patching along the way, signing goaltenders to one- or two-year deals while our young prospects develop, and hopefully they do develop into starters. In the interim, we’ll continue to explore the trade market, free agency and see if there’s somebody that comes along."
Cam Talbot came along last summer. He was fine in the first year of a two-year, $5 million deal, which is to say the Wings got what they paid for. Talbot made 43 starts this season and posted a save percentage of .900 that mirrored the average save percentage across the NHL. The Red Wings were "pleased" with Talbot's performance, said Yzerman: "He met expectations for us."
But Talbot's numbers marked a drop-off from those of his career. He will be 38 next season and can't be relied upon to carry a No. 1's workload. The Wings also have Petr Mrazek under contract for another year, but he's nothing more than a No. 2. Alex Lyon will be a free agent and likely won't be back.
"You look at the best teams in the league, generally they have a real horse that they can ride in net on a regular basis," Yzerman said. "We’re not in that position yet. We’re hopeful to be there one day, whether that’s with our draft picks or (if we have) to go look elsewhere for that guy, we will.
"But overall, our team save percentage was near the bottom third of the league and we need to improve that. And whether that’s with Mrazek, Cam and/or Alex, or we go out and do something, we’ll look to upgrade that position."
No, a clear-cut No. 1 isn't a prerequisite to winning games. Both the Capitals and the Maple Leafs racked up over 100 points this season without a goalie that approached 50 starts. Neither the Rangers nor the Islanders made the playoffs with two of the most heavily-ridden goalies in the league. But a stable option in the crease sure does make things easier.
Which brings us to Sebastian Cossa. Four years after Yzerman and the Red Wings traded up to draft him 15th overall, isn't next season Cossa's time? Doesn't his timeline almost demand it?
"We’re looking for him to take another step," Yzerman said. "I’m not prepared today to put him in the NHL. He had a very good first two-thirds of the season, his play dipped a little bit after the American League All-Star break, and this is a big playoffs for him. So, I’m not ruling anything out, but he’s going to have to take another step here if we want to count on him to be here in Detroit next year."
That might feel like a harsh assessment of a season in which Cossa was an AHL All-Star in Grand Rapids, but it rings true. He had a .920 save percentage in 25 games prior to the February break, .898 in 16 games after it. Yzerman said that for Cossa, "the playoffs are as important, or maybe more important, as they are for anybody" in the organization.
The Red Wings want -- need? -- to see Cossa regain his form in the biggest games of the season. He failed to do so in the playoff opener, yielding four goals on 19 shots before getting pulled in the Griffins' 4-0 loss to the Texas Stars. He was on the bench for their loss in Game 2 Monday night, with the Griffins now facing an elimination game Friday.
Still, however it ends, Cossa's second full season in Grand Rapids was another step forward for the 6'6 netminder, if not the leap the Red Wings were hoping for.
"Again, he continues to trend in the right direction, but today I’m not prepared to say he’s going to play in the NHL next year," Yzerman said. "He’s gotta do more."
The natural comparison here is Andrei Vasilevskiy, the 6'4 goalie drafted 19th overall by Yzerman and the Lightning in 2012. Vasilevskiy debuted in the NHL two years later, emerging as the backup on a team that reached the Stanley Cup Final. He graduated from the AHL the following season with a .935 save percentage and 1.94 goals against average in 12 games, and never went back. This is the sort of dominance the Wings likely want to see out of Cossa in Grand Rapids before giving him an open runway in Detroit.
Vasilevskiy wrested the No. 1 job from Ben Bishop the year after that at the age of 22, playing so well that the Lightning traded Bishop at the deadline a year after he finished second for the Vezina. Vasilevskiy has been one of the best goalies in the NHL since, a two-time Cup winner with four (going on five) top-three finishes for the Vezina.
Cossa turns 23 in November. Four years after being drafted, he has logged one NHL game. Vasilevskiy four years after being drafted had logged 40 NHL games, plus 12 more in the playoffs. Their timelines are now wildly different. Cossa hasn't forced his way out of the AHL like Vasilevskiy did. He has yet to leave the Red Wings no choice but to give him a chance.
But does Cossa really need to? The circumstances are wildly different, too. The Lightning already had a top-tier goalie in Bishop, with no real reason to go young in the crease on a Cup contender. The Red Wings are mired in a nine-year playoff drought and haven't had an undisputed No. 1 in net since -- since when? Mrazek in 2016-17? Jimmy Howard in 2012-13? You can decide for yourself. Cossa might yet sink in the deep end, but it's worth it next year to at least see if he can swim.
The stopgap signings under Yzerman have been nothing more than that, from Thomas Greiss to James Reimer to Lyon to Talbot. The trade acquisitions haven’t really panned out, from Alex Nedeljkovic to Husso. These aren’t so much failures as a function of reality in the NHL, where it’s as difficult as ever to find a consistent difference-maker in net. The Red Wings might have higher hopes for 2023 draftee Trey Augustine than Cossa, but Augustine is returning for his senior season at Michigan State.
Cossa, meanwhile, is on the verge of his fourth season in the pros. He has played well enough in Grand Rapids behind mediocre goaltending in Detroit to warrant a look with the Wings. It should not be handed to him next season without a strong showing in training camp and exhibition games. And in lieu of that, without a dominant start in the AHL.
But the Red Wings could afford to loosen the reins on a goalie who just might be the horse they've been waiting to ride in Detroit.