This has nothing to do with Dylan Larkin the leader, Dylan Larkin the teammate, or really even Dylan Larkin the player. Dylan Larkin is a good captain and a talented center. He's a competitor. This has nothing to do with what he is.
This concerns what Dylan Larkin is not.
Because for the two seasons prior to this one, Larkin was a borderline No. 1 center. Now he looks like a clear-cut No. 2. For the two seasons prior to this one, Larkin was the centerpiece of the Red Wings' rebuild. Now he looks more like the pieces around him. If Larkin was a star in the making, he's no longer shining so bright.
These are the facts. Larkin averaged 0.86 points per game from 2018-19 to 2019-20. This season he's down to 0.52. He ranks 15th among NHL forwards in ice time, and 154th in points per game (minimum 20 games played). Among the 40 forwards averaging at least 19 minutes per night, Larkin, who averages 20:25, ranks ahead of only Jack Hughes in points per game and ahead of only Sam Reinhart in plus-minus.
So this is the conclusion: Larkin has done less with more ice time this season than any of his peers.
The caveats: the Red Wings have embraced a tighter defensive structure, Larkin has a career-low shooting percentage (and an impossible habit for hitting the post) and he's burdened by a bad team. All true, all fair. But the more you try to justify Larkin's decline in production this season, the more you start to dance around the truth.
Truth is, the Wings are still searching for a No. 1 center.
"I want us to be better in every area," Steve Yzerman said at the outset of this season. "Next summer when the season ends, I want to know that Dylan Larkin is a better hockey player, all the way through from Tyler Bertuzzi and Anthony Mantha down to Gustav Lindstrom or Michael Rasmussen. I want to see us be a little bit better and have more optimism that we’re getting closer by the end of the season."
With 10 games remaining in the Red Wings' season, is Dylan Larkin a better hockey player? He might be better away from the puck, if still prone to giveaways when he has it. He might be harder to play against, ignoring his career-low possession metrics. But he's not a better two-way player, because in one way he's lesser. Larkin ranks 68th among NHL centers in points per game this season and 123rd in five-on-five points per 60.
Should the Red Wings be worried? That depends. It depends on what Yzerman honestly expected of Larkin when he took over as general manager two years ago. It depends on what he does -- or doesn't -- expect of him now. And it depends on what he expects of the other centers in the system. Maybe Yzerman was never counting on Larkin to be the No. 1 center on a winning team. Maybe he still is.
It's not crazy to hold out hope. While this is Larkin's sixth NHL season, he's still just 24 years old. Mika Zibanejad of the Rangers was 24 years old and in his sixth NHL season when he scored 47 points in 72 games and finished minus-23. He has 188 points in 184 games in three seasons since. He's arguably one of the 10 best centers in the NHL. He's undoubtedly a No. 1.
We stress over this question with Larkin because the answer means so much to the Wings. Detroit is 8-1-1 in its past 10 games when Larkin scores a point, 10-6-2 on the season. When their best player is at his best, the Wings, the last-place Wings, have performed like a playoff team. And when he's something less than that, when Larkin is held pointless, they have five wins in 24 games.
A No. 1 center elevates his team. He defends without sacrificing offense, scores without compromising on defense. He enhances the lesser players around him by being better than the best players in front of him. A No. 1 center does this every single night. Dylan Larkin still has a long way to go.