Let's hope Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal and Matt Manning become All-Stars. Let's hope Matthew Boyd and Spencer Turnbull back them up. Let's hope the Tigers don't have to sign another starting pitcher for the next decade.
Because here we are again, not even 10 games into the season, wondering if they whiffed on the arms to complete their rotation.
Thanks to front-office misfires and tight-fisted ownership, the Tigers have hit on one veteran starter since the first full year of their rebuild. That was Mike Fiers. They've gambled on seven.
Sure, Julio Teheran might return this year. But is anyone all that surprised given the Tigers' recent track record that he's already on the 60-day IL? Sure, Jose Urena might figure things out. But is anyone all that surprised given Urena's recent track record that he's already struggling to throw strikes?
Sure, Taijuan Walker -- or Robbie Ray -- would have cost more money. The only surprise in this case is that the Tigers even gave Walker a call. The two-year, $20 million deal he signed with the Mets would have been too much for Chris Ilitch to bear. Same for the one-year, $8 million deal Ray signed with the Blue Jays.
Who knows if either Walker or Ray will pitch to their potential in their new homes. But at least the potential exists. Al Avila and the Tigers are betting on a pair of $3 million long-shots, while taking a $925K flier on Derek Holland.
"On the pitching side, you look at Urena and Teheran and Holland, they’re going to push the competition amongst our pitchers and they’re also going to help protect some of our young arms," Ilitch said last month. "Some really good, solid free agent signings this year."
What would Ilitch say now? Teheran lasted all of one start. Urena hasn't lasted into the fifth inning in two outings. And yes, it's early, far too early in the case of Urena to give up hope. But the Tigers have cost themselves the benefit of the doubt.
Fiers was an actual "good, solid free agent signing." The Tigers gave him a one-year, $6 million deal in the 2017-18 offseason, then flipped him to the A's that summer for a pair of prospects. They haven't come close to repeating that since.
Francisco Liriano signed a one-year, $4 million deal with Detroit at the start of spring training in 2018, pitched well in April and was untradeable by July. That same year, Trevor Cahill signed a one-year, $1.5 million deal with the A's and logged a 3.76 ERA over 20 starts. Jhoulys Chacin signed a two-year, $15.5 million deal with the Brewers and logged a 3.50 ERA over an MLB-high 35 starts. Miles Mikolas, after three strong seasons in Japan, signed a two-year, $15.5 million deal with the Cardinals and brought a 2.79 ERA to the All-Star Game.
The next winter, the Tigers signed Tyson Ross and Matt Moore to a pair of one-year deals worth a total of $8.25 million. Injuries limited them to nine starts combined. Meanwhile, Brett Anderson signed a one-year, $1.5 million deal with the A's and posted a 3.89 ERA over 31 starts. Wade Miley signed a one-year, $4.5 million deal with the Astros and posted a 3.98 ERA over 33 starts for the best team in baseball. And Dallas Keuchel, a free agent until June, signed a prorated $13 million deal with the Braves that the Tigers couldn't afford despite a payroll that ranked among the bottom 10 teams in baseball.
The winter after that, the Tigers signed Ivan Nova to a one-year, $1.5 million deal. Injuries limited him to four starts. Meanwhile, Walker signed a one-year, $2 million deal with Seattle and posted a 2.70 ERA. Rich Hill signed a one-year, $3 million deal with the Twins and posted a 3.03 ERA. And Japanese import Kwang-hyun Kim signed a two-year, $8 million deal with the Cardinals and posted a 1.62 ERA. The Tigers were never in the running for Kim despite a payroll that ranked among the bottom 10 teams in baseball.
The fallout here is ugly. Detroit's starting pitchers have the third highest ERA (5.23) in the majors since 2018, which is the first reason this rebuild has been more painful than necessary. It's become longer than necessary because Avila and the Tigers haven't mined or purchased any pitching valuable enough to sell. The last trade that legitimately altered Detroit's future was Leonys Martin for Willi Castro in 2018. Otherwise, the Tigers are just waiting for prospects.
Which brings us back to the top: those prospects better hit. The Tigers haven't afforded themselves a safety net. That would have been the value, in addition to increasing the ceiling for this year's team, in taking a bigger swing at an arm like Walker or Ray. The club swung instead at pitching coach Chris Fetter. And for as much as the Tigers have vowed to spend more when the time comes, their time won't come at all if their prospects don't develop as planned.
"Our goal (this year) is to get more young players established at the Major League level and surround them with guys that we feel will take us over the top," Avila said last month. "So next year, the winter of ’21, I think at that point we can add more to the organization and make it better for '22."
With Mike Ilitch running the show, we could have pegged the Tigers to make a run next winter at a free agent like Noah Syndergaard or Trevor Bauer (should he opt out of his deal). Justin Verlander would already have a contract in the offing. Under Chris, the Tigers aren't likely to jump back in this market, a Verlander reunion being the potential exception. Free agency will be closer to spot-spending than splurging.
The onus is on Avila and his staff to get this right. They can't count on each of the Big Three reaching his full potential, and they can't count on Boyd and Turnbull taking care of the rest. And it's not up to Fetter to cover for their mistakes. The right pitchers are out there, at the right price. When the budget increases, the Tigers have to start finding them.