Pitching’s unpredictability during this era of short starts, power relievers and endless injuries is maddening.
Tommy John is known more as surgery than the winningest pitcher since 1900 not in the Baseball Hall of Fame.
Figuring out pitching, even with illimitable analytics and technology at the disposal of teams, is more difficult than ever. The Tigers have experienced pitching’s volatility in waves.
Jackson Jobe, who entered this season widely regarded as baseball’s top pitching prospect, is the latest victim to a UCL tear in his elbow. He has made just 10 MLB starts, nine of which the Tigers won.
The Tigers were widely skewered when former general manager Al Avila drafted Jobe third overall over promising high school shortstops Marcelo Mayer, Jordan Lawlar and Brady House in the 2021 MLB Draft.
Hard-throwing high school right-handers are prone to irresistible flashes of brilliance only to flame out because of injury, especially the seemingly inevitable Tommy John surgery. Sure, there is a probability Jobe will come back as good as new. But it will likely be nearly three years before there is not only a full recovery, but a return to effectiveness.
Meanwhile Mayer and House, the latter who moved to third, recently made their MLB debuts. The only reason Lawlar isn’t in the big leagues is because he is blocked by Arizona’s stellar shortstop Geraldo Perdomo.
It’s well-known how the Tigers passed on LSU outfielder Wyatt Langford, who has turned into a standout with the Rangers, to pick Max Clark, a high school outfielder from Indiana in 2023. Clark received less than the slotted bonus. It allowed the Tigers to sign high school infielder Kevin McGonigle away from Auburn. McGonigle’s upside as a hitter is extraordinary.
But they did the same thing by drafting Max Anderson, a college second baseman from Nebraska, with a lower-than-slot bonus, so they could sign left-handed high school pitcher Paul Wilson away from his home state Oregon State Beavers. After struggling in a few A-ball starts, Wilson is recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Meanwhile, Anderson has been the top hitter in the Eastern League.
There are four current MLB pitchers with contracts totaling more than $200 million, half of whom, Corbin Burnes and Gerrit Cole, are out for this year and probably next after Tommy John surgery.
Making matters even more fickle is the difficulty of determining what impact minor league performance has on pitching in the majors. It used to be so simple: The pitchers with the best statistics became the best pitchers at the highest level.
Not anymore. Side-slinging right-hander Chase Lee, the latest find in the Tigers’ bullpen, has a 2.01 ERA in 18 appearances. At Toledo, it was 9.53.
It’s not an aberration. Tyler Holton had a 5.02 ERA and 1.289 WHIP in the minor leagues. He has a 2.48 ERA and 0.898 WHIP in MLB. Brant Hurter has a better MLB ERA than he had in the minor leagues (4.03) and college (4.13).
Same for Will Vest (3.58 in MLB compared to 4.43 in minors).
Brenan Hanifee had a 5.17 ERA with Toledo in ’24. It was 1.84 with the Tigers.
Success is fleeting for a lot of relief pitchers. Just look where Beau Brieske and Jason Foley are now compared to last season. Constructing bullpens is a constant tinkering process.
All this makes big-money contracts iffy for even the best MLB pitchers, and displays how much of a risk it is to invest in a high school pitcher expecting to protect their arm health.
The biggest X-factor in baseball has always been pitching, but not to this degree. The strange part is, the increased information has only made pitching more difficult than ever to evaluate.
The measurements may be precise, but somehow decision-making is more complex than ever.