There are prospects and there are phenoms.
Jackson Jobe is a phenom.
Prospects don’t show up in their first MLB spring training game hitting 102 mph with a 4-seam fastball, mixing in a couple tight and precise cutters at 95 mph and pulling out an extraordinarily high-spin sweeper, before dropping a few tantalizing changeups on the corner.
Phenoms do.
Jobe’s electrifying spring training debut, under the sunshine and blue sky in sleepy Lakeland, wasn’t an appearance as much as a revelation.
Maybe it was planned that way. Maybe it wasn’t. Nonetheless it sent a message to the Minnesota Twins, the Tigers’ opponent and primary competition in the American League Central in 2024: Get a load of this!!!
There is no “X” factor like Jackson Jobe.
The 21-year-old right-hander (he will turn 22 July 30) is easily the Tigers’ best pitching prospect since Justin Verlander, and even JV, the 2006 AL Rookie of the Year, wasn’t quite as polished then.
If it sounds like an exaggeration, that’s not the intent. Jobe exhibited similar across-the-board command all last season. He was consistently at 97 mph and would touch 99, so the only difference Tuesday was the uptick in velocity, which was likely the result of being pumped up and assigned to just an inning.
If Jobe continues to pitch like this, it’s probable the Tigers move him into the MLB rotation quickly. Command is command, regardless of the level. He has excellent command of four plus pitches. And high 90s to triple-digits velocity combined with location always plays up.
And a good outing by Jobe in the minor leagues is essentially a waste.
When asked why the Tigers decided to keep JV and Joel Zumaya heading north in 2006, manager Jim Leyland said, “I’ll always take talent over experience.”
There were a number of reasons the Tigers turned it around after a dozen losing seasons, but none more important than JV and Zumaya.
There is, however, an obvious downside to being excited about pitchers: Injuries.
Nothing, arguably, is more fickle in all of sports than the pitching arm.
Verlander is the notable exception. It was a dozen seasons before JV had a notable breakdown, and much longer before the clock struck 12 on the seemingly inevitable Tommy John surgery.
Zumaya was a one-season wonder because of injuries. Reliever Matt Anderson, a 1-1 pick routinely hitting 100 mph, blazed, baked and burnt out because of a combination of knucklehead behavior and ailments.
The Tigers had high hopes for first-round draft picks Mike Drumright, Kenny Baugh and Kyle Sleeth. None pitched in MLB. Rick Greene was a first rounder. He pitched in one MLB game, with the Reds.
Justin Thompson was an All-Star and struck out Ken Griffey Jr. six straight times. He hurt his shoulder, though, and was never remotely the same.
Rick Porcello and Andrew Miller eventually starred with other organizations after being traded for high-end position players (Yoenis Cespedes and Miguel Cabrera).
Matt Wheatland and Jonathan Crawford are two of the most remote first-round selections in Tigers’ history. And that’s quite a distinction. Remember Jacob Turner? The Tigers brought him back for an outing in 2018. He gave up six earned runs in an inning. His career WAR was minus 2.6
Anybody still lit about Matt Manning and Alex Faedo? They were about Casey Mize? Opps. Tommy John surgery again.
But Jobe is different. Some of the above-mentioned first-rounders had trouble hitting 92 let alone 102. And contrary to popular belief, the fact Jobe has thrown just 140 minor league innings is a blessing. His arm is fresh. He will never throw harder than he is now. He will likely have difficulty maintaining such precise command.
Jobe is like any other pitcher. There are going to only be so many quality pitches in his arm. It varies to a wide-ranging degree, but is impossible to truly know how many with any certainty.
It’s the same with staff ace Tarik Skubal, who has already recovered from two major issues, including Tommy John surgery.
So the sooner the Tigers can get Jobe joining Skubal at the top of the rotation, the better.
Because if history has shown us anything about pitching it’s there is a here today, gone tomorrow element about it.
Especially the phenomenal ones.