Baseball's offseason plans are capricious.
Rarely do they hold for an entire season, even for successful teams, who ultimately find the best way to adjust. Even understanding this fluctuating terrain, the Tigers must be gobsmacked how the domino effect of injuries to center fielder Parker Meadows and versatile Matt Vierling has knocked over their lineup.
It’s as if the baseball gods have decided to intercede on behalf of the Guardians, Royals and Twins.
It was a given the Tigers would display subpar infield defense, but superior outfield gloves were supposed to be the balance. Meadows is as good as any outfield defender in baseball and Vierling is fast, in addition to also being the Tigers’ best option at third base (granted, a low, low, low bar).
The Tigers will enter this season with above-average fielding at just two positions, left field with Riley Greene, and catcher with Jake Rogers and Dillion Dingler.
While free agent Gleyber Torres presents the Tigers with a much-needed right-handed bat, he is very much a minus defender, who has led American League second basemen in errors the last two years, in addition to posting poor fielding metrics all around.
Evidently, the Tigers are depending on Javy Baez at shortstop. It’s strange. Spring training is the time for optimism, but please, Baez hit .184 last season and his defense has gradually waned. Trey Sweeney was solid with the glove last year, but like Baez, he often looks like he has more holes in his swing than an aerated golf green.
Colt Keith didn’t look comfortable at first base in the spring, making four errors in a small sample size.
The situation is so dire that it appears to have made president of baseball operations Scott Harris, usually a cool customer, delusional to the point he referred to the definition of a 4-A player, 27-year-old Ryan Kreidler, as an elite defender at shortstop and center field.
He has played three innings in center in MLB, and has never fielded a ball at the position. In the minor leagues, Kreidler has played just 20 games in center field. Oh, by the way, Kriedler has hit only .147 in the majors. He is a .236 hitter in the minors and batted just .200 last season at Toledo.
The best that can be said about Kreidler is he’s an adequate shortstop defensively, but nowhere near elite.
This predicament is compounded by a difficult early schedule. The Tigers are in Los Angeles for three games as the Dodgers, arguably the most-stacked club in MLB history, celebrate their 2024 World Series championship. The Yankees come to town during the first homestead. Yeah, Detroit meets last season’s World Series participants in six of the first dozen games.
Through April, the Tigers are scheduled to play 10 different teams in 31 games. Of those clubs, only one, the hapless White Sox for three games to open the home season, had a losing record in ’24. The Dodgers, Yankees, Brewers, Royals, Padres, Orioles and Astros were playoff teams.
It’s difficult to imagine under current circumstances the Tigers thriving at the onset.
They do, however, have the makings of an exceptional starting rotation with Tarik Skubal and Jack Flaherty leading the way, and a solid bullpen. There is some sock in the lineup with Kerry Carpenter, Greene, Torres and a likely improved Keith. Spencer Torkelson did hit well this spring. The Tigers could really use a shot in the arm from him, and Dingler is a breakout candidate with the bat.
A.J. Hinch is a top manager, and his so-called “pitching chaos” last season was the stuff of legend. But “position player commotion” doesn’t seem nearly as viable.
Hinch loves utility player Zach McKinstry, so you’ll get him at third base on an almost nightly basis versus right-handed pitching, with Andy Ibañez mixed in versus lefties.
McKinstry is to Hinch what Don Kelly was to Jim Leyland. The go-to guy when all else fails, which is odd considering his limited and underwhelming track record, especially at third base. Ibañez is a much better hitter than McKinstry, and his defensive metrics have been better than the eyeball test in the field. Yet, he still has limited experience at third.
It’s difficult to see a situation where the Tigers begin this season by thriving, but they must survive the first part of the season with a respectable record.
Last season, they beat incredible odds after the trade deadline to make the postseason, but that was such an outlier it’s difficult to imagine that lightning strikes twice.
Playing .500 baseball the first month would actually be a good sign. Much less than that, this season could be over before it begins.
It’s an unforeseen challenge. It wasn’t the result of bad planning as much as two injuries that have thrown the Tigers’ lineup nearly totally out of whack.