We knew Tarik Skubal and Jack Flaherty were this good. We kind of thought Reese Olson might be, and that Jackson Jobe was possibly ready to star.
Casey Mize was largely written off after being pushed down as the Tigers surged unexpectedly and dramatically to the postseason in 2024.
But this? It’s beyond anything imagined. The Tigers have the best starting pitching in baseball.
It’s more than just the numbers. It’s who the Tigers are doing it against, like the Yankees and Padres. Game after game, the Tigers gets a good start. Coupled with a recently ailing but still effective bullpen, Detroit's pitching has improved to the point of being extraordinary.
Pitching is like defense in football and goaltending in hockey. It travels well and tends to dominate at home. You are always in the game. It puts enormous pressure on the opposition. If the Tigers score three runs, opponents know they might be done. This could make the Tigers a very dangerous club in the postseason.
It also reflects the difference from season-to-season. In 2024, after trading Flaherty, along with injuries to Olson and Mize, and the persistent shelling of Kenta Maeda, starting pitching was hardly a strength despite Skubal. It led to "pitching chaos" from the bullpen and the Tigers' shocking run.
The beginning of this season has been the opposite. This is "pitching tranquility." Manager A.J. Hinch calmly hands the ball to his starters, who routinely go five-to-seven quality innings, then turns to his bullpen, which has been quite well-rested.
This is by far the better option, especially when it comes to postseason success. The Tigers are smart enough to understand this, and have started to mix in a sixth starter, Keider Montero, to play the end game. This situation will get even better when Alex Cobb returns to health.
Jobe has never thrown more than 91.2 innings in a season. Olson’s high is 117.1. Skubal might get to 200 innings for the first time, and Flaherty and Mize 170, although Mize has never pitched more than 150 innings in his career. The Tigers are wise for keeping these arms fresh.
Detroit's pitching is so dominant, it has overridden the club's obvious defensive issues with Parker Meadows and Matt Vierling sidelined.
And the Tigers are better offensively. They are 10th in MLB in runs scored and 14th in OPS. Certainly, they aren’t wasting outstanding pitching performances like they did early last season. But hitting tends to come and go, often as if on a whim.
Not pitching. It makes the Tigers dangerous, any time, any place.
As it stands today, FanGraphs puts the Tigers’ chances of reaching the playoffs at 72.1 percent. Only the Yankees have better odds in the American League at 79.0. The site has the Tigers with a 53.1 percent chance to capture the American League Central and 5.2 percent odds to win the World Series.
If you can pitch like this, you can win, and big. The Tigers ultimately proved that last season.
It’s likely they will again this year, albeit for different reasons.