Colt Keith called it a "win-win." Even the negatives, he said, come with positives. In the broadest view, he has nine years to help the Tigers win baseball games and $82 million as his reward. All at the age of 22.
The Tigers expect Keith -- the most accomplished hitting prospect in their organization -- to be their Opening Day second baseman this season. Despite the fact that he's never played a game in the big leagues, they signed him to a six-year $28.6 million extension that includes three team options that could nearly triple the value of the contract.
Sitting beside Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris and owner Chris Ilitch inside Comerica Park on Tuesday, Keith said he learned the deal was on the table when he was home in Ohio over Christmas, hanging with his buddy who's building a cabin. And the "thought of having a long-term extension with the big-league club was just overwhelming joy."
"I have zero service time and I don't have an at-bat (in the majors). For them to show that faith in me shows they really love me and they want me here for a long time. And that in itself really swayed my decision," said Keith. "Also, the money was there for what I was comfortable to take. I really like the direction this organization is going and just really wanted to be part of it."
As Keith's agent Matt Paul said Tuesday, the deal comes with "shared risk" for both sides. For Keith, that he'll play above the contract and block himself from cashing in earlier as a free agent -- like Ronald Acuna, who on the heels of his Rookie of the Year season in 2018 signed an eight-year, $100 million deal with the Braves with club options through 2028 that will obstruct the reigning National League MVP from getting the payday he deserves in the thick of his prime. For the Tigers, that Keith won't live up to his potential and they'll be paying him like a big-leaguer all the same.
"At the end of the day, worst case for both of us, the organization and myself, is that I don’t pan out and I end up with financial security for me and my family for the rest of our lives," said Keith. "Best case for both of us is that all the options years are exercised, we win a couple World Series, bring them back to Detroit, and I make myself a boatload of money and I’m still a free agent at 31. I think it’s a win-win."
From the Tigers' point of view, the risk is worth it because Keith has shown the hitting ability in the minors that should translate to the majors. The reward would be locking up an All Star-caliber player for pennies on the dollar -- like the Braves have done with Acuna. As Harris said Tuesday, Keith's "talent and his performance speak for themselves."
It's not just that Keith bashed 27 homers and posted a .932 OPS across Double-A and Triple-A last season. Or that one of the top offensive prospects in the game "has a combination of contact power and discipline that’s hard to find for someone his age," said Harris.
"We don’t just give out these deals to every talented player that comes through," Harris said.
It's that Keith represents all the qualities the Tigers are looking for in a franchise player -- a selfless teammate and tireless worker who's driven first and foremost by winning -- and that he proved last season that his brain matches his brawn in the box. When more-experienced pitchers in Triple-A adjusted to Keith, he quickly adjusted back.
"Any reasonable hitter would take the same approach from Double-A to Triple A and just expect it to work. In all the at-bats I watched, I noticed something really interesting with Colt," said Harris. "Triple-A pitchers started to attack him in very specific ways, they started to try to exploit weaknesses in his swing and approach. Colt recognized those patterns early and he worked to not only close those holes but actually drive those pitches for damage. It’s really hard to do, especially for someone his age.
"That capacity to make adjustments to what he’s seeing and continue to perform is one of the many reasons we were confident in this extension."
Keith has played primarily at third base in the minors, before moving mostly to second in Triple-A. That's where the Tigers see him playing this season and likely moving forward. The club believes that his "agility and flexibility is going to give him an opportunity to make a lot of plays at second base for us," Harris said.
And while the new deal doesn't ensure Keith a spot on the big league roster this season or "fundamentally change his development timeline," Harris said, it does demonstrate that the Tigers "expect him to make a very compelling case in spring training to be our Opening Day starter at second base."
"But he has to earn it, just like very other player that’s coming into Lakeland," said Harris.
Assuming he does, the Tigers will be poised to build on their surge in the second half of last season when they finished second to the Twins in the AL Central. The division is wide open and Detroit's roster is rife with young talent. Keith is the next bat with true middle-of-the-order potential who can buttress the likes of Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene.
Outfielders Kerry Carpenter and Parker Meadows are also expected to be significant contributors in 2024, with Justyn-Henry Malloy's bat not far behind Keith's. The Tigers tout promising big-league arms as well, headlined by Tarik Skubal.
This is the direction of the organization that Keith's talking about. The Tigers have a chance to become a homegrown contender for the next decade, as soon as this season. Keith, a fifth-round pick in 2020, plans to be here for all of it, and beyond: "With my work ethic and my dreams and aspirations, I want to be healthy enough, mobile enough and strong enough to sign another long-term deal and convince, hopefully the Tigers, to extend me again."
"There’s also negatives to (the extension)," he said. "Potentially I outperform the contract. And in my eyes I see that as as a positive because the Tigers are going to be winning more games, I got my financial security with the ability to sign another contract down the road and the Tigers still have money to sign other players."
In other words, said Harris, Keith embodies what the Tigers are looking for: "People who care about the Tigers winning."
And in a win-win deal, that's the sort of winning that matters most.