Before he answered in either case, Scott Harris commended the question -- because he's not sure himself. When, if ever, will we see the Chicago Cubs version of Javy Baez? And when, if ever, will we see more production out of Spencer Torkelson?
Let's start with Baez, a borderline superstar with the Cubs who has the sixth worst OPS (.640) and third worst wRC+ (79) in the majors since signing a six-year, $140 million contract with the Tigers. This year has been even worse: Baez's .589 OPS is 150th out of 151 qualifying hitters.
Harris saw Baez at his best when they intersected in Chicago. That included in 2018 when Baez was runner-up for National League MVP and in 2019 when he made his second All-Star Game in a row. Even in 2021, the season before the Tigers signed him, Baez posted an .813 OPS. (The warning sign might have been that he also led the NL in strikeouts.) He has lost himself in Detroit.
But Harris believes in the work that Baez is putting in with the Tigers' new hitting department, assembled in the offseason by A.J. Hinch.
"He’s really taken a liking to our hitting coaches. They have been working with him in the cage on some adjustments that we feel like can get his barrel into the zone a little bit quicker and help him handle all pitch types better than he has so far," Harris said Thursday on 97.1 The Ticket. "Javy is as competitive as it gets. He wants to make those adjustments and he wants to get the absolute most out of his ability more than anybody that is watching him."
We'll see if and when those adjustments take hold. There's little to like in the underlying numbers. Baez is in the bottom 10 percentile of big-league hitters in barrel rate and remains one of the least disciplined hitters in the game. His 46.0 percent chase rate (where the MLB average is 28.4 percent) is second worst in majors. His only value to the Tigers is on defense, where it should be said that Baez is still an elite shortstop. He ranks in the 99th percentile in Outs Above Average
"I’ve been pleased with the work, I’ve been pleased with the relationship that he has with the hitting coaches and I think that is the first step toward recapturing the performance that I personally saw when I was with the Cubs with Javy," said Harris. "The work is often a leading indicator to performance, and the work is good right now."
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In the case of Torkelson, the underlying numbers are the silver lining. Where the top of Baez's baseball savant page is depressingly blue, Torkelson's is red with hope. He ranks in the 92nd percentile in average exit velocity (92.5 mph, tied with All-Star Mookie Betts), the 84th percentile in hard-hit rate (49.0 percent, one tick better than All-Star Kyle Tucker) and the 81st percentile in barrel rate (12.2 percent, one tick better than All-Star Freddie Freeman). With that type of company, the 23-year-old Torkelson is doing something right.
But the production is the production: a .228 average, a .711 OPS and a below-average wRC+ (98) that places him outside the top 100 hitters in the bigs. This is a first overall pick we're talking about.
"A lot of the underlying stuff is positive, as you alluded to," said Harris. "He’s hitting the ball really hard, he's swinging at the right pitches. I think he’s hit into a lot of bad luck. I know Tiger fans don’t like to hear that, but there’s only so much you can control at the plate as a hitter, and that is swinging at the right pitches and doing damage on those pitches. If you look at his first half, he's hit a lot of hard-hit balls right at the center fielder and a lot of balls to the pull side that have just died at the track."
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Torkelson isn't a victim of hitting too many balls into the dirt. His ground ball rate is significantly below the MLB average and his launch angle is well above it. Nor is he a victim of expanding the strike zone; his chase rate is also well below the league average. He is a victim of poor luck. In fact, the gap between his expected batting average (.254, based on quality of contact) and his actual average says that Torkelson has been one of MLB's 30 unluckiest hitters this season. If and when that changes, his production will, too.
"We’re going to focus on his process at the plate and making sure that he knows what the pitcher is trying to do to him and that he’s accessing his power as often as he can," Harris said. "There’s no easy solution for when it’s ultimately going to translate into performance, but it’s a heck of a lot better than the alternative.
"If he had the same top-line performance but he wasn’t really hitting the ball hard, he was pounding the ball into the ground, he was swinging at the wrong pitches, I wouldn’t be as confident that the top line is ultimately going to catch up to the underlying stuff."
The sooner it does, the better everyone will feel.