When the Tigers drafted Jackson Jobe third overall, they became the first team in four years to take a high school pitcher with a top-10 pick. There's a probable reason for that gap, beyond coincidence and timing and the way our board fell: high school pitchers are a gigantic gamble.
Tigers director of amateur scouting Scott Pleis said Jobe is as advanced as any high school pitcher he's ever seen. He said Jobe's upside far outweighed the risk attached to young arms. He said "it would be a shame to run away from the best talent because maybe you’re afraid that he might get hurt."
Once upon a time, the Rockies probably said similar things about Riley Pint, the fourth overall pick in 2016. Just like the Marlins said similar things about Tyler Kolek, the second overall pick in 2014, and the Twins said similar things about Kohl Stewart, the fourth overall pick in 2013. Baseball moved on without them.
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This isn't to say Jobe won't pan out for the Tigers. But recent (and not-so-recent) history doesn't like his odds. Of the 16 high-school pitchers drafted in the top five this century -- and to be fair, the jury's still out on a few -- not a single one has become an All-Star. Several have stalled out in the minors and only one has pitched at least two seasons in the majors and posted an ERA under 4.00.
The last high-school pitcher drafted in the top five to become an All-Star was Josh Beckett, the second overall pick in 1999. Before that it was Kerry Wood, the fourth overall pick in 1995. Of the 23 high-school pitchers drafted in the top five since 1990, only Beckett, Wood and Jameson Taillon, the second overall pick in 2010, have posted a sub-4.00 ERA over at least 25 big-league outings.
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Injuries are the biggest culprit here. Forearm injuries, to be specific. A high-school pitcher is generally four years away from the majors when he's drafted. A lot can go wrong in the interim, much of which is difficult or impossible to project. Brady Aiken looked like the perfect prospect when he was drafted first overall in 2014. He underwent Tommy John surgery the next year and never made it past A-ball. Hunter Greene went second overall in 2017 and is still trying to find his way in the minors after Tommy John in 2018.
It's not all bad. The Tigers can find hope for Jobe in Ian Anderson, the third overall pick in 2016. Anderson debuted last year for the Braves and put up a 1.95 ERA in six starts. He's off to another strong start this year. He's a tall right-hander with a simple over-the-top delivery. The 6'3 Jobe has similarly smooth mechanics, which is one reason to believe he'll stay healthy. You just never know.
"We’ve had success with young arms in the past," said Pleis. "We’ve been through it a little bit. There’s really risk with everybody, but the question is, we have an idea how to handle them and we do our best to make sure we develop them the correct way."
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The last high school pitcher the Tigers drafted in the first round was Matt Manning, ninth overall in 2016. Manning, like Jobe, had the athletic background to suggest his arm would hold up and his talent would translate to the majors. He's close. Things didn't work out so well for Beau Burrows, the 22nd overall pick in 2015 who was released by the Tigers last month.
For the Tigers to be justified in drafting Jobe where they did, he has to become a star. A top-of-the-rotation starter for several years. This is true whether or not shortstop Marcelo Mayer becomes a star in Boston. Jobe has the tools, like many high-school pitchers drafted in the top five before him. Question is now, can he be different?