Ahead of "a really interesting trade deadline season" for the Tigers, MLB insider Jon Morosi joined 97.1 The Ticket on Friday to shed light on everything from the club possibly trading Tarik Skubal to moving on from Javy Baez once and for all.
"It’s about to be decision time for Scott Harris, Jeff Greenberg and the Tigers' front office," Morosi said. "They’re clearly not all the way in trying to win the World Series necessarily this year because you look at the division, they’ve got three teams ahead of them, you’ve got the Yankees and the Orioles in your league, it’s a tough road. But when your pitching is this good, you’re really obligated to look round and see what you can do offensively."
The Tigers are two games under .500, but just three games back in the AL Wild Card race -- with about six weeks between now and the deadline. Asked whether he thinks the club will will buy or sell, Morosi said Detroit isn't ready to be a serious buyer, especially in a division where they're in fourth place and 11 games out of first. In other words, don't get your hopes up for Mets slugger Pete Alonso:
"That’s not them right now. That’s not reality. They’re a decent team, they really are. But their flaws are numerous enough, and the Guardians and Royals are playing well enough, that it just doesn’t make sense to be an all-in buyer here. So if I were to give the more declarative answer, I would say that you should look to sell as long as the players you’re getting are going to help you in '24 or '25."
Morosi says "there's a decent chance" the Tigers will trade Jack Flaherty, the former Cy Young candidate who's rebounded in a big way on a one-year deal in Detroit: "If you can add someone by trading Flaherty who addresses, to be honest with you, what’s been minimal production at multiple spots on the diamond at the Major League level, I think it’s something that you have to pursue."
As for trading Skubal?
"It’s a great question and one that is going to be very popular in the industry right now," said Morosi. "My general read on it, objectively, is that he is the centerpiece and you can believe that you can at least compete for playoff berths when he’s still here. That’s A, and that’s why I come down on the side of keeping him. If the roster was old and getting too expensive and if you looked at the farm system and said, 'Oh my gosh, we’ve got nothing that we like, then I think you take a different approach.'"
How the Tigers proceed with Skubal, the frontrunner for AL Cy Young who's under team control through 2026, will serve as "a pretty good truth serum of how the team feels internally about their group," says Morosi:
"If you like your (prospects) as much as you would present to the industry and as much as the industry rankings would suggest, you don’t have to trade Skubal because your guys are pretty good in the minors. If you’re maybe not as sure about your own guys as it appears publicly, then maybe you should go down that road and consider it.
"I’m sure they’re going to be given a lot of opportunities to move him, they’re going to get phone calls. ... I just don’t think this is the right time to trade him when they’re just starting to build more of a winning culture. To me, if this was a year or two ago and it was a similar player in a similar situation, I may give you a different answer. But this is now 10 years since a playoff berth for this organization, they need to keep someone like Tarik Skubal."
The elephant in the room, of course, is Baez. The former All-Star has been one of the worst players in the majors since Detroit signed him to a six-year, $140 million contract under former GM Al Avila. That includes three years and $72 million after this season. Do the Tigers and owner Chris Ilitch have the stomach to simply buy out the rest of Baez's deal?
"I'd be surprised," said Morosi. "I’d be surprised. But you could at least make the math work if by doing it, you’re eating a bunch of money to bring back a different player that’s in a similar salary strata."
I realize there are very few players like him. I would be surprised. I would be surprised, but I do think the frustration is at a point where he’s one of the worst offensive players and has been for a couple years running now, and it’s a sunk cost. And Miguel’s money is no longer on the books, so I think things have changed a bit since last year
Baez was placed on the injured list this week with lumbar spine inflammation and could be out until the All-Star break. If Ryan Kreider plays well in his stead, there's at least a chance that Baez has played his final game with the Tigers.
"We’re probably at the stage where it would have to be a big-time contract swap for it to make any sense as a trade," said Morosi. "And again, Scott Harris didn’t sign him. So what I would say is this: if Kreidler, over the next two or three weeks, plays well enough to where he’s clearly the better option at shortstop for the Tigers right now -- and he’s obviously still young enough that there’s a future there -- then I think they they’re presented with a very interesting choice. Because at this point, if you are serious about trying to compete for a playoff berth this year, and if Kreidler is a better option for you and you option him out and activate Javy, it gets back to the old Jim Leyland adage, which is: the players are smart. And if you make a decision that makes the team less competitive, they look around and say, 'What was that all about, man? That’s not right.' And I think they’re rapidly arriving at that moment.
"Javy has obviously had so many chances to write a different story here and if Kreidler comes up and shows that he can handle the job, I think you have to think about something. Because at that point, it’s a sunk cost. And it’s about more of what you’re trying to reward and show. Listen, they’ve optioned the No. 1 pick in the draft down to the minor leagues. That, to me, is something that said a lot about their level of frustration with Tork, certainly, but also they want to be competitive and have a system that rewards performance, and I do think that Kreidler has a pretty good opportunity in front of him right now."