Astros' shortstop Carlos Correa represents a dream for Tigers' fans.
Imagine the celebration if the pending free agent, who turns 27 in September, were to be reunited with his former manager, A.J. Hinch.
Owner Chris Ilitch would undoubtedly be hailed after being portrayed as cheap during the Tigers' rebuild. General manager Al Avila would gain respect after being widely panned.
The Tigers would win the news conference, that's for sure, and regain lost relevance.
But would it really be the best move for the Tigers moving forward, or impulse buying?
There are two fronts to ponder.
The first is whether Correa would even consider coming to Detroit. The Tigers have made significant progress this season, but the perception is they are still far away from genuine contention. Correa is from Puerto Rico. There is not a geographical connection.
The other is whether Correa would be worth a contract that figures be well over $300 million. Correa, the first overall pick in the 2012 MLB Draft, has been an All-Star twice. He was the American League Rookie of the Year in 2015. Correa has a World Series championship ring. He is, by any measure, an excellent hitter with 162-game averages of 29 home runs and 105 RBI per season. Correa’s career OPS is .834.
The misnomer about Correa is that he is a classic 5-tool player. While he has a rocket for an arm, he doesn't run particularly well, especially for a shortstop. Through Wednesday, Correa ranked just 300th, according to baseballsavant.mlb.com, in speed. It's not a statistical driven metric, but measured technology. It is precise.
Among the Tigers who are faster include Jonathan Schoop, Jeimer Candelario, along with catchers Jake Rogers and Eric Haase. Correa has just 33 MLB steals, none the last two years. He hasn't even attempted to swipe a bag in that span.
Despite average speed, Correa has been a definite plus defender. He is currently third among all MLB players in defensive WAR (1.7), and it's typical of his entire career.
Durability has been an obvious issue with Correa. This will likely be just the second season he will play more than 110 games. In 2019, he missed several weeks with a fractured rib he said was caused by a massage at his home. He has also missed considerable time because of back, toe and thumb ailments, none of which have lingered.
As an Astros' star, Correa is booed extensively on the road because of the sign-stealing scandal. He, however, accepted more responsibility than most of his teammates.
Correa did rankle feathers, though, last season when he vehemently defended teammate Jose Altuve, who is generally considered the biggest culprit.
Correa's batting splits home and road are remarkability similar. There is not a noticeable difference like with another premier SS free agent, Colorado's Trevor Story, who is also two years older. Correa bats right-handed, and hits righties nearly as well as lefties.
Correa is not a perfect player. He is, however, definitely a premier player. A $300 million player? It hasn't exactly worked as planned with Francisco Lindor, Bryce Harper, Giancarlo Stanton and Gerrit Cole.
Less clubs are willing to roll the dice with these type of mega signings. The landscape this off season is uncertain because the Basic Agreement expires Dec.
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That would play into the Tigers' hands if they are the one franchise out of the box with truly big bucks, drawing Correa with an offer he can't refuse.
Hinch should play a big factor. No one is more qualified to evaluate Correa, who told Houston reporters early this season he still stays in touch with his ex-manager. There were delicate moments Hinch navigated Correa through, particularly the back ailment.
It shouldn't be a case of Correa or bust. The Tigers might be better off balancing out their roster instead of investing so much in one player this soon in the turnaround.
Analytically, such massive contracts seldom make sense. Yet, Correa is just entering his prime and the Tigers’ shortstop play has been awful. There is no obvious answer in the prospect pipe line, either.
Correa is intriguing, but what cost is feasible? It can’t be at any cost.