After Tarik Skubal pitched four scoreless innings in his season debut, the ball exploding out of his hand on the Fourth of July, A.J. Hinch said he wasn't one bit surprised: "I expect Skubal to be a monster every time. He's an incredible pitcher."
“He’s one of the best pitchers in baseball, quite honestly, when he’s right," said Hinch.
Skubal would spend the next three months proving it. He put the finishing touches on his emphatic return to the mound in his final start of the season Wednesday night: four innings, zero runs, eight strikeouts, before rain took mercy on the Royals. It was almost fitting that Skubal's outing ended early: He's just getting started in Detroit.
The 26-year-old southpaw just grabbed the big leagues by the -- horns. After recovering from flexor tendon surgery on his forearm last August, which came after Tommy John in college, Skubal looks stronger than ever. His arm is part bionic. He'll finish his fourth big-league season with a 2.80 ERA in 15 starts, down from 3.51 last year, 4.34 the year before that and 5.63 the year before that. Makes you wonder what next year has in store.
So does this: Since his season debut, Skubal leads all big-league pitchers in fWAR (3.3). He's also first in FIP (2.00). He's second in WHIP (0.90), trailing only AL Cy Young favorite Gerrit Cole. He's fourth in strikeout-to-walk ratio. He allowed a batting average of .198 this season; Cole, for reference, checks in at .212. And Skubal took it up another notch over his final 10 starts: 2.15 ERA and 75 strikeouts to 11 walks in 58 2/3 innings.
Whether or not Eduardo Rodriguez returns next season is immaterial to the shape of the Tigers' rotation moving forward. Skubal is their ace. And by the looks of it, their first true ace since Justin Verlander. Since Verlander's last season in Detroit, the Tigers have seen two Opening Day starts apiece from Rodriguez, Matthew Boyd and Jordan Zimmermann. Skubal is someone to whom they can give the ball and really get behind. He draws eyes, like Must-See J.V., whenever he takes the mound.
"Every time he goes out there, we feel like we’re going to win against anybody he throws against," Kerry Carpenter said this season.
That hasn't been said -- honestly -- of a Tigers pitcher since the man just mentioned, say what you will about Rodriguez's hot start to the season. In fact, Skubal has asserted himself as the alpha of this rotation since both he and Rodriguez returned. The day after Skubal's debut, Rodriguez got back on the mound after missing several weeks with a finger injury and allowed five runs in four innings. He has a 4.50 ERA since July, with perhaps his last start with the Tigers scheduled for Sunday.
Skubal's four-seamer speaks, or sizzles, for itself. It's one of the nastiest heaters in the game, with an average velocity (95.8 mph) this season that ranks right at the top among starting pitchers. But it's Skubal's changeup that's taken him to new heights. Wednesday was a perfect example: he threw it 21 times and induced seven whiffs on 15 swings. It has a whiff rate of over 50 percent on the season. Did we mention he still throws sliders, sinkers and curves?
Back, for a moment, to Cole, the best pitcher this season in the American League. Over 200 innings and 32 starts, he has a 2.75 ERA, a 3.21 FIP and a 1.015 WHIP. This is as good as it gets. Skubal, again, has a 2.80 ERA, a 2.00 FIP and a 0.917 WHIP. The catch, obviously, is that Skubal has done it over 80 innings and 15 starts. He has demonstrated a level of dominance.
If he sustains it next season, the Tigers are looking, indeed, at "one of the best pitchers in baseball."