2021 was the right year, until it wasn't. The year for the Tigers to start hunting in free agency again. The year for Chris Ilitch to give Al Avila the means to turn this organization into more than a farm, to supplement all its budding talent with talent already in bloom.
Then a pandemic, then a shortened season without fans, then a significant loss of revenue, and now this, another winter of playing it safe.
"Right now, as we move forward, we’re moving cautiously," Avila said Friday.
This was supposed to be the offseason that set the Tigers free. Jordan Zimmermann's $18 million salary is finally off the books. The only big contract left from the free-spending era that prompted the pain of the past four seasons is that of Miguel Cabrera. The rest of Detroit's payroll reads like a vending machine of million-dollar snacks.
Remember what Avila said two winters ago?
"After 2020 our payroll will be in a lot better place for us to be aggressive going into 2021," he said. "We will have some money by 2021 to start going out there (in free agency)."
Now that we're here, the Tigers will continue to wait. They paid their bills just as their cash flow dried up, and "the uncertainty of next season is another difficulty," said Avila. It's not that they won't spend this offseason. They need to, and they will. Avila said he's looking for a starting pitcher or two, another bat, and maybe a catcher.
It's just that, under normal circumstances, maybe they'd be taking a run at Trevor Bauer. Maybe they'd be in on J.T. Realmuto. Maybe, with A.J. Hinch now at the helm, they'd even make a call to Astros All-Star George Springer and fill that hole in center field once and for all.
Instead they'll be back in the bargain bin, eyeing the same kind of player whose charitable efforts in Detroit brought Avila down to The Corner Ballpark on Friday: old friend Cameron Maybin.
"We’re looking at long-term sustainability, and you have to be disciplined to do that. And sometimes you gotta have thick skin because I know people want it now, so you get a little attacked here and there," Avila said. "But we’ll see that through, and in the end I think we’ll make the right decisions and we’ll be successful."
You have to think Avila feels the urge to make a move. His team has the most losses in baseball since 2017. It also has a stream of incoming talent, including the makings of a dominant rotation. With a splash or two in free agency, the Tigers could start winning again. Not somewhere in the murky future. Next season. 2021.
"I look at it as being disciplined this year and resisting an urge to really try to step up," Avila said. "The last thing we want to do is go out and spend some money that we’re trying to get rid of next year or the year after that. From the very beginning, we’ve been saying we want this to be a long-term success, not a short-term fix."
Investing money in free agents is typically a long-term play, ideally a long-term solution. And at some point the Tigers will have to spend. As it is, this might be the ideal time for a budget-conscious team to strike, in a slower market with fewer bidders. Maybe you find a deal. Maybe you land the star you otherwise wouldn't.
But Avila set a new target on Friday: 2022. By then, he hopes "things will be back to normal." Until then, he'll ignore the itch within him and the noise around him, and we'll all keep waiting for a winter that feels stuck in the future.