It's not a consensus, but there's a feeling forming around baseball: Carlos Correa to the Tigers. If it only it were that simple.
"It’s not that simple," MLB Network's Jon Morosi said Thursday on the Stoney & Jansen Show. "This is going to be a long process. I would say the Tigers certainly have a chance."
They have a chance because of Correa's relationship with A.J. Hinch and because owner Chris Ilitch is ready to spend. They have a chance because they're a team on the rise and Correa could take them over the top. They have a chance, if we're being honest, because their biggest competitor for Correa might be the Yankees -- and the bad blood between New York and Houston might be too much for both parties to bear. With a young, controllable roster, the Tigers are well positioned to sign the best free agent in baseball.
"You have some young players and young starting pitchers who will be able to make close to the MLB minimum and play key roles for you. That allows you to invest very strategically in the players that you really, really need. And Carlos Correa, or a shortstop that’s a star-level player, fits that description. So Correa is someone who’s very high on the Tigers’ list," Morosi said.
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Once Correa declines the $18.4 million qualifying offer he received from the Astros, he's officially a free agent. But the uncertainty of MLB's collective bargaining agreement, which is set to expire Dec. 1, and the promise of a bidding war for Correa is likely to push his decision well into the winter.
"I would not expect him to sign before the first of the year," said Morosi. "I just think things are going to take some time, and we know the CBA process is out there as well. But I think ultimately Carlos Correa will be choosing between three or four teams at the very end, and I expect the Tigers to be one of those three or four teams."
Correa is a 27-year-old All-Star, with October bonafides, coming off one of the best seasons of his career. He's due the kind of deal Francisco Lindor signed with the Mets at age 27 this spring: 10 years, $341 million. Fernando Tatis Jr., at age 22, got the same money over 14 years from the Padres last winter.
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"You look at what comparable shortstops have signed for, Carlos Correa is a very competitive person. I think he wants that stature of being one of the highest-paid players in the game," Morosi said. "He loves the spotlight. We’ve seen him excel in the playoffs as recently as last month, and so I think he wants to be paid like that. He understands where Francisco Lindor’s money came in at $341 million over 10 years, and I’m sure that’s the number that he has in mind."
Correa will find that money somewhere. He has several big-market suitors. The Phillies will be on the prowl. The Rangers, too. You can never rule out the Dodgers (or the Angels), and the Astros still have every opportunity to dig deeper into their pockets. The Cardinals and Mariners could also be in the hunt. As for the Yankees, the hard feelings stemming from the Astros' sign-stealing scandal that helped them bounce New York from the 2017 ALCS make the Bronx an awkward fit.
"It might be a challenge for Correa to go to the Yankees," Morosi said. "Somewhere that’s a fresh start that wouldn’t have that same level of baggage and attention might be helpful for Carlos."
Correa watched the Tigers play well against the Astros last season. Indeed, the Tigers played well against most of the best teams in baseball. If they're close to contention in his eyes, this might be the perfect time to come aboard.
"If Carlos comes to Detroit -- or anybody who’s a key (free agent) shortstop, whether it’s Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story -- they become one of the beacons of what should be a playoff team, in my view, in the next couple years," Morosi said. "This is a team that’s getting close, and not in a minor league process of selling off assets (for prospects). This team is poised to win and win quickly.
"You contrast it with the Yankees, there’s the baggage of 2017 plus all the expectations and pressure that go with New York. Whereas if he comes to Detroit, it's almost the Pudge Rodriguez signing (in 2004) all over again, or Magglio (Ordonez in 2005), where this team is about to really get good and now this is the status symbol that Detroit is back on the baseball map. And it's not going to be expected to win the World Series in year one. There may be expectations, but not one of those World Series-or-bust mentalities, so you can really grow into that role. I think that sort of situation is very appealing to Carlos Correa."
If the Tigers want him, he might be theirs to go get.
Morosi also touched on the possibility of the Tigers reuniting with either Justin Verlander or Max Scherzer this winter as they search for a veteran to enhance their young rotation.
"I do think Verlander is a possibility, I think Scherzer’s a possibility. The interesting thing for me is going to be, can the Tigers afford to go big? And I’m saying more than $20 million a year for a starting pitcher and go with Correa who’s probably going to have an annual salary somewhere in the high 20’s or 30? Can you basically plop down $50 million on next year’s payroll on free agents when it’s just two free agents?
"For me, while I think the sentimentality is there and I wouldn’t discount Verlander or Scherzer, from a percentage of the payroll standpoint I would be a little surprised if we saw both Verlander and Correa coming to Detroit -- even though that would be quite a story with two former World Series champs in Houston coming to Detroit together."