Welcome to March.
It won’t be long now until we’re treated to the dulcet tones of Kevin Harlan or Ian Eagle losing their minds as we watch this year’s Cinderella team knock off our favorite sleeper team. And deep down, we’re okay with it, because… "this is March."
But before we can get to the annual glory that is March Madness, we have to spend the next few days speculating about what that bracket is going to look like.
Ahh, the beautiful, perfect, precise science of bracketology. Well, we all know it’s actually anything but perfect and precise, but scores of bracketologists give us a pretty good idea of what the picture looks like.
Though conference tournaments can muddy the waters as we approach Selection Sunday, here’s a look at what the bracketologists are saying about Michigan State and Oakland, which clinched its first NCAA Tournament bid since 2011 by winning the Horizon League Tournament on Tuesday night.
Michigan State (18-13, 10-10 Big Ten)
NET: 24
KenPom: 19
Strength of Record: 50
Q1: 3-8 / Q2: 5-5 / Losses outside Q2: None
The Spartans have shown flashes this season — a la a dominant win over projected 3-seed Baylor and a high-scoring win over Illinois. But they’ve also looked downright rough at times — hello, home losses to Ohio State and Iowa.
Most have thought MSU is a tournament lock, but a sliver of doubt began to creep in after Sunday’s loss at Indiana. A win over Minnesota on Thursday would erase any fears of snapping the streak of 25 straight appearances, but a loss may leave them sweating things out until Sunday.
Here are the Spartans’ latest bracketology projections, as of Wednesday morning:
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi:
• Midwest Region No. 10 vs. No. 7 Florida (21-10, 11-7 SEC) in Indianapolis
• Another potential second-round matchup against Marquette could await.
CBS’s Jerry Palm:
• South Region No. 9 vs. No. 8 Colorado State (23-9, 10-8 MWC) in Memphis
• The projected 1-seed in the South region is Houston.
NCAA’s Andy Katz:
• West Region No. 9 vs. No. 8 Nevada (26-6, 13-5 MWC)
• It’s worth noting, Katz does his as bigger picture “predictions,” whereas most bracketologists do theirs based on “if the tournament started today.” In Katz’s final prediction before Selection Sunday, he has UNC as the1-seed in the West.
Bleacher Report’s Kerry Miller:
• Midwest No. 11 PLAY-IN GAME vs. Colorado (22-9, 13-7 Pac-12)
• This is the closest any of the major bracketologists have the Spartans to the cut-line. In this scenario, the winner would face No. 6 St. Mary’s, with Creighton likely awaiting as the 3-seed.
Oakland (23-11, 15-5 Horizon)
NET: 127
KenPom: 138
SOR: 106
Q1:1-5 / Q2: 1-0 / Zero Q4 losses
The Golden Grizzlies are going dancing for the first time since making back-to-back appearances in 2010 and 2011. OU almost pulled off an upset of 4th-seeded Texas in 2011 and they could be a hot pick to pull one off this year.
Guided by Horizon League Player of the Year Trey Townsend and sharpshooting from the likes of Jack Gohlke and Blake Lampman, Oakland has put together an impressive resume highlighted by a win over Xavier and good games against Michigan State and Illinois.
Here’s where the bracketologists had them Wednesday morning:
• ESPN: Midwest Region No. 14 vs. No. 3 Iowa State (24-7, 13-5 Big 12)
• CBS: East Region No. 14 vs. No. 3 Kansas (22-9, 10-8 Big 12)
• Katz: West Region No. 14 vs. Baylor (22-9, 11-7 Big 12)
• Bleacher Report: South Region No. 15 vs. No. 2 Marquette (23-8, 14-6 Big East)
While Michigan had a rough season and would need a improbable run (understatement of the year) through the Big Ten Tournament to make the Big Dance, there are two other Michigan-based teams still alive.
Central Michigan and Western Michigan open the MAC Tournament on Thursday. Given most bracketologists have MAC champion Toledo in the 13-14 range and the Chips and Broncos were further down the standings, they'd more than likely be looking at a 15 or 16 seed, should they win the conference's auto-bid.
Want more bracketology? Check out Bracket Matrix, a website that puts together all the latest projections from dozens of bracketologists. You can also view previous years’ rankings of bracketologists, looking at how their final projections stacked against the real thing.