A LOT has happened since the Virginia Cavaliers cut down the nets in 2019, but we’ve finally made it to the 2021 NCAA Tournament. With March Madness set to tip-off, we ran BetQL’s model simulations to project every team’s chances of winning the National Championship. So, if you are throwing down some money on futures bets or just filling out your bracket, you'll want to read this first.
Does the model like Gonzaga to win it all? Of course it does, but teams like the ‘Zags are going to be heavy fan and betting favorites.
Overall, the simulations like Houston a lot. Other notable positive expected values to win (or go to Final 4) are Alabama, North Carolina and Utah State when compared to sportsbook odds.
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Let’s take a look at the numbers. Here are the teams that stand out to win it all:
North Carolina Tar Heels +5000
The Tar Heels finished the season with an 18-10 mark, including going 10-6 in ACC conference play. North Carolina drew an eight seed in the South region, and will face No. 9 seed Wisconsin (17-12) in the first round of the NCAA tournament.
UNC is ranked 29th overall in KenPom rankings. Broken down even further, the Tar Heels come in at 55th in adjusted defensive efficiency (AdjD) and 15th in adjusted offensive efficiency (AdjO).
The team’s leading scorer is Armando Bacot (12.2 PPG), and the Tar Heels are the No. 1 offensive rebounding team in the country.
Many sportsbooks currently lists the Tar Heels with a 1.7% chance of winning it all. The model has North Carolina winning 4.01% percent of the time, which provides a ton of value on them.
The model also projects UNC to make the title game 8.6% of the time and has them projected to make the Final Four at an 18.22% clip.
Houston Cougars +2000
The Cougars finished the season with a 24-3 overall record, including going 14-3 in the AAC. Houston drew a two seed in the Midwest region, and will face-off against No. 15 seed Cleveland State (19-7) in the first round.
Houston is ranked 6th overall in KenPom rankings. The team is very balanced on both sides of the ball, as the Cougars come in at 16th in AdjD and 8th in AdjO.
Their leading scorer is Quentin Grimes, and they finished leading the AAC in turnover margin with a 3.78 average.
The model absolutely loves Houston and thinks they are severely undervalued. Sportsbooks list the Cougars with a 5% chance of winning it all. The model has Houston winning 26.77% of the time, which makes the Cougars a valuable futures bet entering the tournament.
The model also projects Houston making the finals at 39.75% and has them making the Final Four at 53.94% rate.
Alabama Crimson Tide +2000
The Crimson Tide posted a 24-6 overall record, including going 16-2 in the SEC. Alabama drew a two seed in the East region, and will face the No. 15 seed Iona (12-5) in the first round.
Bama ranks 8th in overall KenPom rankings. Their strength lies in their defense, as the Crimson Tide come 2nd in adjusted defensive efficiency. They are also 34th in adjusted offensive efficiency.
The team’s player to watch and leading scorer is Jaden Shackelford. Alabama likes to play fast, has a great coach in Nate Oats and comes into the tournament on a six-game win streak.
Sportsbooks give the the Crimson Tide a 5% chance of winning it all. Our model has Alabama winning 6% of the time, which presents some value in the odds.
The model also projects Bama making the finals at 12.03 % and has them making the Final Four at a 24.88% clip.
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Lastly, the projections see some value in Utah State. Sportsbooks list the long shot the Aggies with a .8 percent chance of winning it all. The model has USU winning 3.19 percent of the time. Utah State +12000 to win the National Championship is worth some pizza money.
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