Michigan’s obsession with Ohio State is understandable. There is also the Michigan State problem.
Not enough attention, however, has been paid to the Wolverines’ first litmus test of 2021: Western Michigan.
Laugh if you want, but do so at your own peril.
Michigan’s opener Sept. 4 presents the ultimate no-win situation. The once-mighty Wolverines are expected to roll over the Broncos of the Mid-American Conference.
Western Michigan presents a potential nightmare matchup for Michigan, though.
Pretty much everything was a flaw as the Wolverines struggled through a 2-4 COVID-marred 2020 season. None was more evident than pass defense. Noah Vedral of Rutgers and MSU’s Rocky Lombardi, not exactly among top college passers, lit up the Wolverines’ secondary for more than 700 combined yards and six touchdowns.
Western Michigan QB Kaleb Eleby is much better than both. As a sophomore, he threw 18 touchdowns with just two interceptions in six games. He had completions of longer than 50 yards in each game.
He was the third-rated passer in the nation behind only Alabama’s Mac Jones and BYU’s Zach Wilson. Yeah, the first-round NFL draft picks. While Eleby’s top receiver D'Wayne Eskridge was selected by the Seahawks in the second round, he still has a plethora of weapons.
Wide receivers Skyy Moore and Jaylen Hall combined for 10 TD's in the abbreviated season. Hall, a junior from Macomb Dakota High School, had seven TD's on just 12 catches, and averaged 26.9 yards per reception. Moore, a junior, has started since he arrived on campus.
Eleby was a three-star recruit out of his Missouri high school. He turned down offers from Illinois and Iowa State. He has exceptional arm talent and some mobility. He was rated by Pro Football Focus as the country’s 24th-best QB entering this season, ahead of all but two in the Big Ten (Indiana’s Michael Penix Jr. and Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud). Michigan’s QB's are ranked 70th. Vedral is 94th, and Lombardi, now at Northern Illinois, 101st.
“He looks like he could be the next Group of Five breakout quarterback this fall after flashing his arm talent and decision-making last year,” PFF wrote of Eleby.
He also has a strong running game. La’Darius Jefferson, who transferred from MSU, averaged 104 yards per game last year. The Broncos’ offensive line is deep and experienced.
Don Brown is no longer UM’s defensive coordinator. Mike Macdonald from the NFL’s Ravens has replaced him.
Michigan ranked 88th in total defense last season, but 96th against the pass. Cornerbacks Vincent Gray and Gemon Green struggled, while safeties Brad Hawkins and Dax Hill have been more touted than effective.
Western Michigan has its vulnerabilities defensively. History is on Michigan’s side, too, at least in this rivalry. The Wolverines clocked WMU 49-3 as recently as 2018. The Broncos have lost all seven tries vs. UM.
But early-season non-conference losses proved devastating for Lloyd Carr and Rich Rodriguez. Michigan football has not been nearly the same since the Appalachian State loss, and losing to Toledo was a telltale sign Rich Rod wouldn’t pan out in Ann Arbor.
Contract extension or not, Jim Harbaugh obviously can’t afford to drop this game. It’s not, however, the lock it’s perceived to be.
No, WMU is not Ohio State. It has had just one QB in its history take an NFL snap. His name: Ed Chlebek. He threw four passes, completing two while mopping up for the Jets in a 48-0 loss to Kansas City in 1963. He went on to become Eastern Michigan’s head coach, giving Carr his first college assignment in 1976.
Eleby is relatively unknown, but that could change in a hurry in the opener. He has perhaps the best arm Michigan will see this season.
Quite an exam rather than the walkover it is reputed to be.