This week we shift our sights onto TPC Sawgrass for The Players Championship. The course measures around 7,250 yards for a par 72. When it comes to the gambling odds, Dustin Johnson comes in as the favorite to win it all at +1200.
The field is absolutely loaded with all the best players from around the world. All of the top-20 players are teeing off, including 29 of the top-30 guys in the current FedexCup standings. On a course that features a lot of water, including the iconic 17th island green, strong iron play will be vital. Also, per Rick Gehman’s model, Strokes Gained: Off-the-tee is one of the key important metrics to look for when trying to profile guys for this weekend.
Betting on golf always seems to come down to the wire on Sundays, which is why I’ve become hooked. So let’s dig in and see if we can pick some winners.
As for my betting picks, nothing groundbreaking here, but aside from digging into the data at RickRunGood.com database, I try to look for guys that have had past success at the particular course, value, and players that are trending in the right direction coming into the event.
Viewing Details
2021 Players Championship
Dates: March 11-14
Course: TPC Sawgrass, Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida
Watch: GOLF/ NBC
Picks to win outright
Patrick Cantlay +2200
If you are looking for consistency, Cantlay is your guy. He had a little break after withdrawing from the WGC-Workday, so he should be fresh and ready to compete this weekend.
To win against the best players and on this course, you need the total package of skills, which is precisely what Cantlay has. He ranks in the top-50 of all four Strokes Gained categories, including 20th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-tee. He also comes in with the most total Strokes Gained of any player in the field over the last 24 rounds.
Justin Thomas +1800
These odds look juicy for the World’s No. 3 ranked player. Aside from Collin Morikawa, Thomas is the best when it comes to iron play. He showed that off by gaining 9.50 strokes on approach at the WGC-Workday event.
I also like Thomas has a 5.6 percent of winning it all per the RickRunGood Tournament Predictor. Guys that are in the top-5 of Rick's model usually are always in contention come Sunday.
Thomas has had some issues with his driver, but TPC Sawgrass is a shorter course, which is where he excels. As long as he can have success off-the-tee, he will be in the mix to win it all.
Collin Morikawa +2000
I love watching this “kid” play. I can call him a kid because I’m old, right? I’m throwing some money down on him for a lot of the same reasons I like Thomas this week. His iron play is elite and will keep him in contention all weekend long.
He’s coming off of a victory this season and will find the fairways and greens on every hole. That is the key to winning this event, so why not take ride with him in this spot?
Longshots
I look for guys who have 25-1 odds or longer for this section. My strategy with longshots: if any of them are in contention come Sunday, you will get an opportunity to live bet and hedge on some of the other contenders.
Sam Burns +12500
Burns has the goods to make a run here this weekend. To win this event, you need to be solid off-the-tee and have a great birdie or better percentage. Burns fits the profile, as he is 21st in Strokes Gained: Off-the-tee and 11th in birdie or better percentage.
He’s been knocking on the door with three top-10s in his past five starts, including a third-place at the Genesis Invitational, which he could’ve won. This is his chance to make the leap, so at these odds, I definitely will sprinkle some pizza money on him.
Will Zalatoris +7000
Zalatoris comes into this week striking the ball very well, and has five top-25 finishes in his last five events. He’s also shown he can have success on a variety of different courses, so I love that about his game.
He can also do work with his irons, ranking 10th in Strokes Gained: Approach this season. Great value here at these odds.
Max Homa +11000
My guy rewarded us for believing in him a few weeks ago at the Riviera and I like the odds. If you want to talk about consistency, check out the run he has been on as of late:
Homa fits the profile of being able to have success off-the-tee, so I’m throwing a dart on him in this spot.
Prop Bet
Adam Scott top-20 +335
Scott has made all eight cuts this season and has had a lot of past success at this event. He won The Players in 2004 and is on a streak of four straight top-12 finishes at this event. At + money, this is one of my favorite bets of the weekend.
As always, make sure you shop around for the best lines. Good luck and let’s make some money.
*Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook